$20 NLHE STT Turbo: $$20 NLHE STT Turbo: AKs- jam or fold?

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StealTheButton

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gecko_eh97 (villain on button) not a very good play, but has been quiet and waiting patiently.

GordonBombayV (small blind)- very bad, loose aggressive player. Has been getting lucky and scooping up chips.

runningqueens (me, hero in bb).

The villain just raised raised 8x on the button and has 60% of his chips in preflop. I have 17bb left. I can't just call preflop for that amount. If I shove I cannot force a fold. I'm inclined to think that the villain has a pair, though you can't discount AJ, AQ, KQ, or AK.
The only favorable hand here to be against is AJ or AQ. For some context I have been taking some bad beats over the last few weeks and am actually down about $300 for the month which is the worst losing streak I have had.

AKs is a hard fold, but I don't want to flip on the bubble when I know I can outplay both of these players. What would you do?
 

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fundiver199

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You are completely right, that Villain has committed himself to the pot, so you are facing, what is sometimes known as a "non all-in all-in". Katie Dozier talks a lot about these in some of the videos, she have made for Cardschat. So no. We are never going to call here, and if we jam, he is never going to fold. So we just treat this as, if he had moved all in. With that being said this spot is not close or difficult at all. In fact its a fist pump call, and you should be thrilled, he jammed on you, when you have the absolute top of your range.

ICMizer has him jamming 17% of hands, which is fairly tight reflecting, thats its right on the bubble. Even so your calling range is still 7,4% of hands, which is because, if you call and bust him, you are directly in the money, so its almost like collecting someones bounty. More specifically the calling range is 77+, AJ+, ATs. 77 and ATs are very close to break even, so if you want to fold those hands, thats completely fine. If you have a strong read on the guy, and he is nitty, maybe you can also fold 88 and AJo.

If you fold anything more than that, and if you are not happy to call with AKs, then I have to be honest with you and say, that you are probably in way over your head playing a 20$ SnG. You should begin with cheaper games, until you have at least some kind of idea of, what push fold ranges should look like in different situations. For the price of 5 of these SnGs, you can own ICMizer for an entire year, which I highly recommend.
 
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Sidetracked

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It is in hands like this that people who win tournaments accumulate chips.

You should be getting all your chips in the middle preflop, and feeling good about it.
 
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300HPGOD

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As others have said this is a very easy call. I personally would rather have the hand you have compared to JJ in this spot and I wouldnt think about folding JJ here. Villain is showing that they probably arent folding to a jam but that should not matter to us with the hand strength we have (I have actually seen some bad players make a play like this and then actually fold to a jam). You have to realize how strong AK suited actually is. It blocks AA and KK, any pair QQ and below you are almost pure flipping with (no worse than 46-54) and villain can easily have A10-AQ here. Plus factor in that even if villain has KK you are winning 1/3rd of the time. You are only really dead against AA. If you are folding AK suited in this spot would you also be folding JJ and only calling with QQ+? If that is the case then your calling range is extremely tight and you will find yourself blinding down and out in many SnGs.
 
AKQ

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and heres come my 2 cents

you said he is a angro loose player

often times in the bb if he was dealt a9+ he is gonna squeeze there
you waited for this spot to stack him RIGHT?

he is not all in and that concept is only for those people that know the concept, which he does NOT!!

YOU have an advantage here in this spot you are out of position

and lets pretend he has 99 which is the hand your'e basically putting him on

you should flat call and DONK SHOVE ANY FLOP
when the flop comes qj4 or 10 q 3 and you shove out of position is he really all in???
no he can fold and believe he made a good fold

down 300 for the month?
sounds like you don't need a min cash

otherwise
 
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StealTheButton

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You are completely right, that Villain has committed himself to the pot, so you are facing, what is sometimes known as a "non all-in all-in". Katie Dozier talks a lot about these in some of the videos, she have made for Cardschat. So no. We are never going to call here, and if we jam, he is never going to fold. So we just treat this as, if he had moved all in. With that being said this spot is not close or difficult at all. In fact its a fist pump call, and you should be thrilled, he jammed on you, when you have the absolute top of your range.

ICMizer has him jamming 17% of hands, which is fairly tight reflecting, thats its right on the bubble. Even so your calling range is still 7,4% of hands, which is because, if you call and bust him, you are directly in the money, so its almost like collecting someones bounty. More specifically the calling range is 77+, AJ+, ATs. 77 and ATs are very close to break even, so if you want to fold those hands, thats completely fine. If you have a strong read on the guy, and he is nitty, maybe you can also fold 88 and AJo.

If you fold anything more than that, and if you are not happy to call with AKs, then I have to be honest with you and say, that you are probably in way over your head playing a 20$ SnG. You should begin with cheaper games, until you have at least some kind of idea of, what push fold ranges should look like in different situations. For the price of 5 of these SnGs, you can own ICMizer for an entire year, which I highly recommend.

Thank you for your thoughtful, yet belittling response. If you make all your decisions based on a silly preflop calculator, you will continue to be a mediocre poker player.
 
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StealTheButton

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and heres come my 2 cents

you said he is a angro loose player

often times in the bb if he was dealt a9+ he is gonna squeeze there
you waited for this spot to stack him RIGHT?

he is not all in and that concept is only for those people that know the concept, which he does NOT!!

YOU have an advantage here in this spot you are out of position

and lets pretend he has 99 which is the hand your'e basically putting him on

you should flat call and DONK SHOVE ANY FLOP
when the flop comes qj4 or 10 q 3 and you shove out of position is he really all in???
no he can fold and believe he made a good fold

down 300 for the month?
sounds like you don't need a min cash

otherwise

No he is not loose aggressive, he has been quiet and folding for a long time. I will sometimes make this flat call and shove the flop as you said and you can sometimes force a better hand to fold, but I think he has enough of his stack in he is calling a shove on any flop.

I folded the hand and I won the tourney- I'm sure you can look it up. I'm down 300 in month and I've made half of it back, but I'm up 8k in a year playing 20 dollar tourneys.

Open shove I am snap calling, but the way he played it gave me pause. I don't care what the stupid preflop calculator says. Re-shoving AK is so powerful partly because you can force a fold a large percentage of the time, but you can't force a fold here. This move is very different than a shove. I'm fairly certain he does not have A-10, A-J, or AQ (ok AQ is not out of the realm of possibility, but he would have just shoved). I have HIGH confidence in a pocket pair. Also this is not a shove from the small blind where villain will jam any A or any K. I waited for a better spot and I stand by my decision.
 
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fundiver199

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Thank you for your thoughtful, yet belittling response. If you make all your decisions based on a silly preflop calculator, you will continue to be a mediocre poker player.

The "silly preflop calculator" is a piece of software, which tell you, what the optimal push-fold ranges are. It can also tell you, which adjustments you should make, if your opponents are not playing optimal. Its something, that most serious tournament player owns and have spend many hours working with, so they dont make big mistakes in this fairly simple part of the game. This is especially important, if you play a format like turbo SnGs, where push-fold spots are going to be very common.

Now I have checked your sharkscope profile, and I owe you a small apology, because you are actually a winning player. This is most likely, because you play on pokerstars Pensylvania in a pool, which consist of a lot of people with more money than skills. International sites are way tougher, because you have a bunch of semi-professional grinders from countries like Russia and brasil all the way down to microstakes. People for whom even a 5$ hourly winrate is attractive compared to a normal job.

Now back to the hand surely we can make some adjustments, if we think, the opponent is not jamming as wide, as he is supposed to. I said that already in my original reply. But folding AKs would be a massive overadjustment based on information, which you almost certainly did not have.

You say, he had been "quiet and waiting patiently". Ok so maybe a bit on the tight side, but how many hands have you played with him, and are you using a HUD? If your read is only from this 6-handed SnG, you have probably only played something like 40 hands with him, and over such a small sample someone can easily be card dead. Moreover what do you assume, he does with hands like A9 or KQ, when it folds to him on the button, and he is the short stack with 14 blinds? Does he limp or min-raise, and have you seen him do that with this stack size?

My point is, we need an extremely solid reason to assume, he can only have a pair or AJ-AK. If he constuct his range in a linear way, that would be something like 88+ and AJ+, which mean, he is then folding or limping 77 and AT but jamming AA and KK with the risk of not getting action. That seams rather weird, but we can go with it anyway as a worst case scenario and see, what ICMizer has to say. If I lock up his range as 88+ and AJ+, you make money by calling with JJ+ and AK. AKs is still a very solid call, but AQ would now be a fold. But again you need a really strong reason to assume, someone is jamming with less than half of the optimal range.

It sounds like, you are reading a lot into the fact, he made the "non all-in all-in" rather than an actual all-in. I dont agree with that. I think, there can be multible reasons for this, including a simple misclick. Or maybe his thinking was, that if both opponents got it in, he could fold and hope for you to bust. Not a good strategy, but its also not a good strategy to do this only with very strong hands. In fact if he had a premium hand like JJ+, AK he should at least consider min-raising to induce a light rejam from either opponent. So I will almost go as far as saying, that those hands are a bit reduced in his range with this particular stack size of 14BB. And as someone else said already, you obviously block AA and KK.
 
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fundiver199

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I folded the hand and I won the tourney.

Cool that you won the tournament. However this does not mean, you made a good fold. If we lose our internet connection, time out and fold AA preflop, we might also later proceed to win the tournament, and obviously that does not make it a good fold. In this hand you gave up somewhere between 2,5 to 5% of the price pool by folding, and you were just lucky, that you ended up making it back later.
 
puzzlefish

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OP instead of writing a wall of text to you, I will just say this: maybe for someone playing huge volumes of SnG daily, this could be a simple shove with AKs to flip for a chip lead. For a lower volume player, at 17bb or so, I don't see anything wrong with picking a better spot to outplay your opponents instead of coin flipping with what is most likely a pair. It's relatively early on in the SnG.
 
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Badday94

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I would gamble all my chips with no hesitation here. A K and on top of that, suited, it's much too powerful to fold. Ofcourse anything can happen and you were on the bubble so I understand why you took that route, you cand do that also if you have a gut feeling, done it myself in situations I would have lost playing by "the book", but here it's an instant jam.
 
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StealTheButton

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OP instead of writing a wall of text to you, I will just say this: maybe for someone playing huge volumes of SnG daily, this could be a simple shove with AKs to flip for a chip lead. For a lower volume player, at 17bb or so, I don't see anything wrong with picking a better spot to outplay your opponents instead of coin flipping with what is most likely a pair. It's relatively early on in the SnG.


Thank you Puzzlefish, this is EXACTLY my logic, but few agree with me. AK is not a made hand. My read is this player has a strong hand (not Ax) and I'm not desperate to make a move here. There is plenty of time left for one of these donks to make a mistake and lose their stack- which is what happened. I see no reason to coin flip for essentially my whole stack.

I can't believe that I'm being told that I'm out of my league and I should be taking poker classes. Generally I play 3-6 tourneys a day (low volume) and my 6 max win % is very high because I'm able to make decisions like this.

I'm not saying that I calling is wrong, or bad, or that I refuse, I just wanted to explore another option besides robotically re-raising all in like we poker players have trained ourselves to do in this hand.

If villain was a strong player skillfully applying pressure to my stack hand after hand, I would not be folding. He is a weak player folding way too many hands and I can fold here and keep leaning on him. I assure you he is not jamming 17% of his hands. Also keep in mind that this is a 6-MAX tourney and the payout as well as the strategy is different (maybe this point wasn't make clear enough)?
 
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StealTheButton

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gambling is not a great strategy in a 6-max payout structure. In a large tourney, taking a chance and winning a huge pot at an inflection point can put you in a position to win the tournament or place big in the money. Here, you are simply trying not to bust out. A first place 1/6 win earn you about 3.6 buy ins, or a profit of only 2.6 buy ins. Finishing 2/6 will earn you about 1.8 buy ins, or profit about 0.9 buy ins.

If you bust out of 5 in a row, you need to win two just to break even, or win one and place second in 3 more. Those losses are slow to recoup, so you need to win or place as frequently as possible. There is no winning 30, 40, or more buy ins when things go your way.
 
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fundiver199

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Also keep in mind that this is a 6-MAX tourney and the payout as well as the strategy is different (maybe this point wasn't make clear enough)?

ICMizer takes payouts into consideration, and I did tell the program, it was a 6-man with 65/35 payout structure. So this is all factored into the math, and even against the top heavy worst case range, I constructed, calling with AKs wins you 2,5% of the price pool or in $ terms around 3$ less the rake. Which is simply just to much value to be giving up.

You say, that you are so much better than these opponents, that you can afford to basically never call them with anything other than aces or kings, because you are just going to outplay them later. But the thing is, the guy only has 14 blinds, and soon blinds will go up even more. So there will a lot of push-fold poker, until someone busts, and how are you going to "outplay" someone by making even bigger mistakes in the push-fold games, than they make?

I am totally on board with adjusting to opponents, who we think are playing overly loose or as in this case overly tight. But we dont want to overadjust and put ourself into a situation, where we are the ones getting exploited, because we are more out of line, than they are. I am not going to run more ICMizer simulations, but if you are only calling with aces or kings in a situation, where you are supposed to call with 7% of hands, then people can jam basically any two cards against you and print money.

Now if you want to fold AKs in this situation against these particular opponents, thats fine. Its your money and your "read", however good or bad it was. But when you share a hand to a poker forum, we need to be looking for some more general answers to, what we should do in this situation. And the answer is, we should call. As the majority of respondents also agree.
 
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StealTheButton

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You say, that you are so much better than these opponents, that you can afford to basically never call them with anything other than aces or kings, because you are just going to outplay them later. But the thing is, the guy only has 14 blinds, and soon blinds will go up even more. So there will a lot of push-fold poker, until someone busts, and how are you going to "outplay" someone by making even bigger mistakes in the push-fold games, than they make?

I'm not trying to emphasize how strong of a player I am, I am highlighting the fact that they are very poor players. Nor am I saying that I am only calling a shove with AA or KK- I'd be calling less than 1% of the time. A few more pre flop shoves and I'd be going home soon. What I am saying is that the way the hand was played THIS time I'm folding. If he just jammed his entire stack of 2015 chips I could not call fast enough. With his raise of 8bb, all the hands that I dominate (Ax and Kx) are just so unlikely. The inclusion of those hands is what makes calling with AK so profitable. If that makes me a poor player or this a horrible blunder, so be it. I just wanted to share my analysis of the hand and was curious how others would react in that situation.
 
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fundiver199

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Nor am I saying that I am only calling a shove with AA or KK- I'd be calling less than 1% of the time.

To be fair QQ is always a call before AKs, so you might be calling 1,5% of the time.


If he just jammed his entire stack of 2015 chips I could not call fast enough. With his raise of 8bb, all the hands that I dominate (Ax and Kx) are just so unlikely.

This is, where I see the situation very differently, and this is actually an interesting discussion with conceptual implications. His 8BB raise commits him to the pot, and therefore it is mathematically the exact same thing as a jam. He can never fold after committing this much of his stack, or at least he should not fold. And neither can you call and then get away later. So effectively, if you give him action, he is already all-in.

For this reason I will treat it as a jam and move all in with the exact same range of hands, as if he had jammed. That range might not be the 7% suggested by ICMizer, but it wont change based on him raising to 8BB rather than 14BB. The reason for this is, I dont want to get into a guessing game about, what a weird and basically pointless bet size might mean. Like I said already, it could even be a simple mis-click. Like he wanted to min-raise his J9s, but then the bet slicer button slipped, and he ended up making it 8BB.

Another similar situation is, what I call the "fish bet". Like we raised preflop, maybe against limpers, one or more people called us, and now on the flop someone donks for 1BB into the pot of 15BB. This is a mathematically meaningless bet, so I will just pretend, they checked, and raise them with the hands, I would otherwise have C-bet. I will not go crazy and start C-betting more, because "LOL they must be weak", but I will also not refrain from betting, just because they made a pointless bet themselfes.

Lastly if someone bets on the river, I also dont want to get into this leveling game of "a small bet must be for value so I fold" or "a big bet must be a bluff so I call". Instead I stick to fundamentally sound poker and call more, the less people bet. If this mean, I get bluffed out of the pot, when they overbet, thats fine, because they gave themselfes a bad risk-reward. If they bet very small, often I end up paying them off with some pretty weak holdings, but this is also fine, because they would have gotten more value from stronger parts of my range by going larger. And sometimes I actually win pots by calling a small river bet like 10% pot with A high or even K high.

I just wanted to share my analysis of the hand and was curious how others would react in that situation.


Which is cool, because thats exactly, what the forum is for :)
 
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StealTheButton

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To be fair QQ is always a call before AKs, so you might be calling 1,5% of the time.

Lastly if someone bets on the river, I also dont want to get into this leveling game of "a small bet must be for value so I fold" or "a big bet must be a bluff so I call". Instead I stick to fundamentally sound poker and call more, the less people bet. If this mean, I get bluffed out of the pot, when they overbet, thats fine, because they gave themselfes a bad risk-reward. If they bet very small, often I end up paying them off with some pretty weak holdings, but this is also fine, because they would have gotten more value from stronger parts of my range by going larger. And sometimes I actually win pots by calling a small river bet like 10% pot with A high or even K high.

Which is cool, because thats exactly, what the forum is for :)

If someone give me 10 to 1 to call a river bet, I'm calling with trash. There have been plenty of times that this was nothing more than triple barrel semi-bluff that never panned out. You only need to be right 1/10 times to break even. Pot odds are super important, especially on the river and they can dictate your choice more so than your holdings. When I'm have a big hand on the river and I know my opponent is very weak, I do the reverse and try to give him favorable pot odds to call with something. I'm not firing off half the pot when he missed his hand and is lucky to have a pair.
 
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fundiver199

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If someone give me 10 to 1 to call a river bet, I'm calling with trash. There have been plenty of times that this was nothing more than triple barrel semi-bluff that never panned out. You only need to be right 1/10 times to break even.

Exactly. I think, where some people go wrong, is the "stupidity factor". They feel "stupid" calling with a very light hand like A high and then get shown second or third pair, that got very light value. But as you say, we only need to win 1/10 to make money, and when they occationally have some busted draw, they are the ones looking fairly stupid ;)
 
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