$20 NLHE MTT Turbo: Should I check, raise, or go all-in

[Dutchman54]

My first post!


A cheap bar poker game. Down to 16 players. I had been treading water in the 20,000-30,000 chip range all evening. The blinds were now 1000/2000, so my M was less than 10 and I had roughly 13 BBs

I was dealt KQ unsuited. I raised to 6,000 and two people called. The flop was AKx, giving me middle pair and a backdoor straight draw. I was first bettor. I figured that unless someone had an ace I was almost certainly the best hand and could almost double up. I went all-in. Right play?

The result: one guy folded, and the other guy had AQ and won.

I think that earlier in the tournament it would have been a mistake, but made sense at that point.



My pre-flop combination analysis assuming with two raisers that their hands both have 10 or better for each card:

Hand/Number of combos/My equity

AA 6 Equity 20%
AK 12 20%
AQ 12 20%
AJ 16 40%
A10 16 40%
KK 3 9%
KQ 9 T
KJ 12 70%
K10 12 70%
QQ 3 31%
QJ 12 72%
Q10 12 72%
JJ 6 43%
J10 16 64%
10-10 6 43%

So KQ is positive against 64 hands, negative against 80, and ties 9. Not very good (KQ unsuited is not a premium hand). It's possible someone would call with a lower pair than 10s and then it's a bit worse for me. However, since no-one re-raised if you take out AA, KK, QQ, and AK suited you remove 16 hands and then it's an equal number of positive/negative.




Thanks for your thoughts!

 

[Brawo]

What was your position at the table and where was your opponents? How much had they chips? How agressive were they?
Those are information which you have to include in post if you expect good analysis.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Brawo is correct. In order to give speculate we need to know your position and other players chip stacks. Also how many players make the money, and how many players are short stacked? It sounds like there is no ante? I'm no tournament expert but I would advise against opening KQo from early position to 3 BB with only a 13 BB stack. I'd rather wait for a pair or Ax and possibly just get it in pre flop. I don't mind raising to 2.5-3 BB and jamming flop either though with position. Here, I would like the flop jam more if it was heads up. The chances of anyone folding an Ax behind us are very low. The chances that one of them called pre with Ax are not very low. This is the problem with opening for 3 BB in early position with K high. With 9 BB in the pot and 10 BB in your stack there is only one bet you can make if you are betting and that is all in. Check folding seems really bad but depending on who called it may be best. If someone tries to slow play an Ace and you turn another K it would be sweet.

 

[Jdjakubisin]

Dont rely on KQ even suited late.

I'll just say this much...

I assume you are earlier in position as you mention others calling...

Don't rely on KQ late in the tourney. If you are swimming well don't count on it. Losing blinds late cost me more money than any leak that I can imagine.

The rule is only premium hands under the gun, and I am told as well KQ isn't a premium hand. And as it actually happens, the earlier I open or raise w KQ the more I lose. In fact, I just lost a step 7/8 wsop qualifier as I was in first place heads up stacked 21,000 to 9,000 and I called the guys allin KsQs and I didn't hit the flop while the guy was raising with 99.

I actually checked cardplayer.com numbers preflop...

KQ v..
AA, about 83% bad
KK, 86% bad
QQ, 65%
AK, 70%
AQ, again about 70%.

Numbers obviously a little rough due to variation in suit. They obviously don't improve with your flop.

I hear a lot of people say they like KQ better because you can make more straights. That is still not likely.

I'm not a fan of late game KQ calls over 2BB.

 

[sirrupetot]

With u're stack size u can't afford make some plays OP in MultiWay pots..u should wait for a hand to get it in preflop and put pressure on smaller or medium stacks.

 

[Dutchman54]

Tables had just been combined so I had no information on the other players. I was in the cutoff and it had been folded to me.

First caller (who folded to my post-flop raise) had about the same number of chips as me. Second caller (who called my post-flop raise with AQ) had 2-3X as many chips.

I don't think that I can wait for a premium hand (AA, KK, QQ, AK), but good point on Ax being better than KQ. About 60/40 better.

It was kind of a late position steal attempt (3K in blinds, no antes). I was surprised to get two callers (button and BB). I would have checked if I missed the flop (maybe, depends on the board) but when I got mid pair I decided to jam with KK. At that point only an ace could beat me. Opponents had called, not re-raised.

 

[skeptix]

I think this is a good hand to have a lot of in your check/call range, so I'd generally do that. Some of the time I'd lead for ~1/3 pot.