$20 NLHE MTT: 5 quad ($5 2r 1a) range analysis

[duggs]

This is a 5 quad on stars on a sunday, villian is competent and has 3bet and 3bet/folded, by no means amazing.

pokerstars - $5+$0.50|200/400 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 24,639.00
Hero (MP+1): 19,385.00
LP: 29,426.00
CO: 6,342.00
BTN: 18,712.00
SB: 2,641.00
BB: 8,376.00
UTG: 10,706.00
UTG+1: 5,522.00

MP posts ante 50.00, Hero posts ante 50.00, LP posts ante 50.00, CO posts ante 50.00, BTN posts ante 50.00,
SB posts ante 50.00, BB posts ante 50.00, UTG posts ante 50.00,
UTG+1 posts ante 50.00, SB posts SB 200.00, BB posts BB 400.00

Pre Flop: (1050.00) Hero has XX

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 800.00, LP raises to 2,085.00,
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4,255.00, LP calls 2,170.00

Flop: (9560.00, 2 players) 5s Qc Ts
Hero bets 2,111.00, LP calls 2,111.00

Turn: (13782.00, 2 players) Ah
Hero checks, LP bets 4,885.00, Hero raises to 12,969.00 and is all-in, LP ??????

River: (39720.00, 2 players) Qh

Hero shows XX

whats my range and whats his? what is he betting turn and folding with and what is he betting turn and calling with?

 

[duggs]

bumping

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

double bump, you already know my opinion

 

[The Messiah]

I dont mind opening up a little more here than min raise as the villains in the blinds are in push/fold mode and raising that bit more may lead to a lighter shove by bb, but if its something you do throughout your game, then theres no real reason to change as it is quite suspicious, but if your mixing up your bet size opening then I dont mind a bigger raise.

Not to sure what your perceived image is to villain, your 3bet % more importantly, but if im to assume 2 competent players that are playing in a pot with ~50bigs effective stacks then this is my range for both Hero/Villain.

Hero;
Assuming we 4 bet KK+ and flat <QQ(Which were pretty much set mining)AK, Im flatting a strong range here as even though were oop I assume we dominate his 3betting range but are crushed by his 5bet shipping range, he prob flats all his AK,QQ as he is in position too so best to flat with a strong range that we crush but are not comfortable with staking pre.
Villain;
As i said he flats all his QQ,AK as hes in pos to the 4 bet, but I also think he flats AA,KK a % of the time, but more AA than KK.This is all his value range am im sure he does this with all pps aswell, for set mining purposes.Not sure about suited broadway, SC but I guess he does this a % of the time aswell, I only say this as hes in pos..

Based on the above pre flop ranges I can make a reasonable stab at this hand post flop.

Right, so im pretty sure your barreling 100% of your range here on this flop, which includes Top/middle set, AKs(that is if you dont flat this to his 3 bet like I would do),AA,KK.
But based on your bet sizing this screams nutty so im going to assign you a set for the moment, but since this does scream nutty as the bet size is very small I donk like it, unless you were planning on bet/folding AA,KK on the flop, but im pretty sure you bet bigger if you do plan to.
Flat call by villain, I can assume all his sets,over pair are flatting as this hits your range if villains got KK,AA(from villains point of view).
Now turn changes a lot, you check when an A hits, bringing in one draw but consid its a 4 bet pot we dont need to worry about it enough for it to be concerning.
I think your opp can interpret your check on turn as you have picked up sdv, so a hand lk AKs,AQ(if he thinks your bad), so hes always 100% betting this turn when he does so for value, its never as a bluff and almost always a set.I now eliminate KK from both your/villains range, I assign a range of AA,QQ, to you(hero) and a range of 1010,QQ,AA, every other hand checks back this board, this reason for adding in the 1010 is as I said because your check looks like you have sdv and villain might feel hes getting thin value from AK,AQs by betting.

Based on sizing/post flop play and all the ranges that ive assigned, I think villain bet/calls all sets and nuts (obv), he doesnt bet turn with AK/2pair/fd just sets imo, so therefore doesnt have a bet/fold range.

Your line to me looks like a weirdly played QQ/AA, i say this because of the bet sizing, as its bad if its either one.
Seems like a cooler were if i was sticking my neck out i would give villain AA and yourself(hero) QQ.
nh

 

[duggs]

interesting view, you are giving villain way way too much credit imo, his 3bet/call range is like A10s+ AJo+ KQs 1010+ and he bet/folds a reasonable amount so i have a bluff 4bet range here also.

 

[The Messiah]

interesting view, you are giving villain way way too much credit imo, his 3bet/call range is like A10s+ AJo+ KQs 1010+ and he bet/folds a reasonable amount so i have a bluff 4bet range here also.

Stats for both you/villain would be useful?

 

[Ducky7]

Look like the nuts to me, im thinking sets QQ/TT. Potentially KJ if you 4b light there but its somewhere close to the nuts imo

 

[duggs]

Stats for both you/villain would be useful?

sorry just saw this, ill look them up when im not using my hud, although they wont be converged so wont be super helpful.