$20 NL HE STT: Pot-sized bet on flop- what do you do?

[StealTheButton]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

20

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

This is the about the second hand of the tournament and I do not know the villain. This is a 6-max Turbo tourney, single table, $20.
I open on the button with K 10o and villain on the small blind calls as does the big blind.
Flop comes 7s 2h Ks and villain makes a pot sized bet and big blind folds.

This does not seem like a big decision, but that is big bet. Villain could routinely lead with pot-sized bets, or perhaps he has a big hand, or perhaps
he is semi-bluffing. If I call the pot sized bet and don't improve, then what do I do on the turn when he fires out a bet somewhere between 225 and 450?
Could he have called with K2 or K7, not that likely but who knows. Does he have a set? Or does he likely have something like KJ or KQ? If he's
just a maniac then I'm making decisions for a significant portion of my stack.



I folded. Turns out he was a crazy maniac and busted out shortly after, but not before doubling up and knocking out
someone else on one of the craziest beats I've seen.



pokerstars, $18.50 + $1.50 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 - 6 players

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Sternamaki (UTG): 1,440 (72 bb)
JaguarPaw247 (MP): 975 (49 bb)
TavernMan258 (CO): 1,470 (74 bb)
runningqueens (BU): 2,075 (104 bb)
mauler330 (SB): 1,540 (77 bb)
BusyB919 (BB): 1,500 (75 bb)

Pre-Flop: (30) Hero (runningqueens) is BTN with K♦ T♥
3 players fold, runningqueens (BU) raises to 50, mauler330 (SB) calls 40, BusyB919 (BB) calls 30

Flop: (150) 7♠ 2♥ K♠ (3 players)
mauler330 (SB) bets 150, BusyB919 (BB) folds, runningqueens (BU) folds

Total pot: 150
mauler330 (SB) wins 150

 

[fundiver199]

Folding top pair to a donk bet after opening on BTN is far to weak-tight. Yes its a large bet, but he probably dont have any two pair on this board, and a good player would never donk bet on this texture. So the donk bet itself tells us, he is bad, and donk bets tend to be bluffy / weak rather than strong. Most of the time the turn is also a call, but if a bad card like a spade comes, and he pots it again, maybe you can consider getting away.

The issue with folding here is, you are essentially saying to him and everyone else on the table, that they can just call your open raises out of position and then donk out into you on the flop with completely random cards and make you fold the vast majority of your range. If he flopped a set or has KJ/KQ and coolered you, you would presumably also have bet if checked to and lost some chips anyway.

 

[fundiver199]

Here is a hand, that I just played, where the action was identical to your hand. BTN open, both blinds call. On the flop SB donks out for full pot. I folded, because BB had called, and I was worried about his hand. But look what SB showed up with! And this is why, you should not fold top pair.

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[StealTheButton]

Here is a hand, that I just played, where the action was identical to your hand. BTN open, both blinds call. On the flop SB donks out for full pot. I folded, because BB had called, and I was worried about his hand. But look what SB showed up with! And this is why, you should not fold top pair.

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Yes I would also be worried what the small blind was calling with. Can have a pocket pair or the third nine.

 

[freerobert]

Call and see what he next do... Its a to big bet for a good player. What was happend then?

 

[StealTheButton]

Folding top pair to a donk bet after opening on BTN is far to weak-tight. Yes its a large bet, but he probably dont have any two pair on this board, and a good player would never donk bet on this texture. So the donk bet itself tells us, he is bad, and donk bets tend to be bluffy / weak rather than strong. Most of the time the turn is also a call, but if a bad card like a spade comes, and he pots it again, maybe you can consider getting away.

The issue with folding here is, you are essentially saying to him and everyone else on the table, that they can just call your open raises out of position and then donk out into you on the flop with completely random cards and make you fold the vast majority of your range. If he flopped a set or has KJ/KQ and coolered you, you would presumably also have bet if checked to and lost some chips anyway.

Yes, in hind sight this was much too tight a play. I thought for sure that he would have flipped over KQ if we showed down. Not that he couldn't have have had a King. Problem is whether he had it or not he would have fired a very large bet on the turn. But yes, this is showing a precedent that I can be pushed off a hand with a large bet. I tend to overthink sometimes.

 

[puzzlefish]

I wouldn't read into the donkey bet on the flop too much. Yes, maybe he is a maniac player, but that doesn't mean he didn't show up with 22, 77, AK, KQ, KJ, and even KK sometimes. Or perhaps he has a flush draw and is building the pot.

Whatever the motive behind the donk bet, look at it more in terms of whether or not you would be interested in playing for pots and going to showdown with your hand, because that is what the little donkey is going for. What are you hoping to improve to on the turn from the flop, and to the river? It's a pretty bland board for KTo to be honest.

 

[puzzlefish]

The issue with folding here is, you are essentially saying to him and everyone else on the table, that they can just call your open raises out of position and then donk out into you on the flop with completely random cards and make you fold the vast majority of your range. If he flopped a set or has KJ/KQ and coolered you, you would presumably also have bet if checked to and lost some chips anyway.

Okay, that is a fair point, but it is nothing that can't be fixed in a hand or two with jamming over donk bets. Realistically speaking though, KTo in this case is a top pair with a sad kicker and you're only hoping to catch maybe another T and even then it shouldn't be Ts. It's just one of those hands that is more trouble than it is worth.

 

[fundiver199]

I thought for sure that he would have flipped over KQ if we showed down.

Yes, maybe he is a maniac player, but that doesn't mean he didn't show up with 22, 77, AK, KQ, KJ, and even KK sometimes.

But why would SB lead with any strong hand on a disconnected K high board? This is a board, which favour the preflop raiser, since he is the only one, who can have AA, KK and AK. The other players cant, since they did not 3-bet. Even KQ is usually 3-bet from SB and KJs as well. The preflop raiser is going to C-bet most of his range on this board, and why would SB not allow that to happen, if he flopped a set? This is a dream spot for a set to check-call flop and then check-raise turn. If on the other side he has KJ, leading out for full pot puts his stack at risk, if Hero or for that matter BB has one of the hands, that beat him.

Or perhaps he has a flush draw and is building the pot.

That is far more likely, since a pot sized donk bet is designed to make people fold.

Whatever the motive behind the donk bet, look at it more in terms of whether or not you would be interested in playing for pots and going to showdown with your hand, because that is what the little donkey is going for.

Poker is a 3 street game, and calling this flop bet does not commit hero to the pot. If we only defend on the flop with hands, we are willing to stack off with, then we allow the opponent an extremely profitable bluffing opportunity with any random two cards. And who knows, what this guy is up to? Maybe he is just taking a shot at making us fold, and then he will slow down and check the turn. Or make a small bet, which we can easily call.

What are you hoping to improve to on the turn from the flop, and to the river? It's a pretty bland board for KTo to be honest.

Its a great flop for KT. We have top pair decent kicker in a late position confrontation, where ranges are wide. A bad player might donk out with top pair worse kicker than ours or with second or third pair. A good player dont have a donking range on this board, so even without other reads the donk bet tells us, that the opponent is, what its name suggest

Yes I would also be worried what the small blind was calling with. Can have a pocket pair or the third nine.

As in fact he did. But the hand is a perfect illustration of, what a pot sized donk bet into two opponents usually represent. SB did catch some piece of the board, but he did not have a very strong hand, and he wanted his opponents to fold.

 

[Station_Master]

As others have said a clear call on the flop with top pair ok kicker, he could easily be doing it with worse. If the turn is a blank and he keeps firing big it might be a fold at that point but folding flop is way too tight.

 

[puzzlefish]

But why would SB lead with any strong hand on a disconnected K high board? This is a board, which favour the preflop raiser, since he is the only one, who can have AA, KK and AK. The other players cant, since they did not 3-bet. Even KQ is usually 3-bet from SB and KJs as well. The preflop raiser is going to C-bet most of his range on this board, and why would SB not allow that to happen, if he flopped a set? This is a dream spot for a set to check-call flop and then check-raise turn. If on the other side he has KJ, leading out for full pot puts his stack at risk, if Hero or for that matter BB has one of the hands, that beat him.

Poker is a 3 street game, and calling this flop bet does not commit hero to the pot. If we only defend on the flop with hands, we are willing to stack off with, then we allow the opponent an extremely profitable bluffing opportunity with any random two cards. And who knows, what this guy is up to? Maybe he is just taking a shot at making us fold, and then he will slow down and check the turn. Or make a small bet, which we can easily call.

Its a great flop for KT. We have top pair decent kicker in a late position confrontation, where ranges are wide. A bad player might donk out with top pair worse kicker than ours or with second or third pair. A good player dont have a donking range on this board, so even without other reads the donk bet tells us, that the opponent is, what its name suggest

I just find that this kind of thinking is conflicting, because on the one hand you are assuming that the player who is donk betting is a bad player but at the same time you are also assigning a range to his play which effectively filters out hands that he may have that would dominate the hero's holding. Which is exactly why if I was in villain's position, I would be mixing in this kind of play to extract value from weaker Kx hands thinking that I have nothing. Only if the villain is very bad would he always play the same way and we just don't have that kind of information.

 

[fundiver199]

I just find that this kind of thinking is conflicting, because on the one hand you are assuming that the player who is donk betting is a bad player but at the same time you are also assigning a range to his play which effectively filters out hands that he may have that would dominate the hero's holding.

It is actually the other way around. Hero is getting 2:1 and only need 33% equity to call. So if you fold here, you are filtering out all the hands, that are behind to KT and assigning the opponent a range consisting of only pretty nutted hands like KJ or better. And just from pure combinatorics there are far more hands, that are worse than KT than the opposite.

There is also the fundamental concept of MFD (Minimum Defense Frequenzy), which we always need to have at least somewhat in mind. Against a pot sized bet MDF is 50%, but here the responsibility for defending is shared between two players, which mean, it goes down to 33%. This math is not perfect, because we are not on the river, so hands, that are behind, will have equity. But its close enough to give us an idea, what our default play with KT should be.

If KT is in the top third of our range, which is clearly the case after opening on BTN, our default play should be to call. If we dont do that, we make it profitable for the opponent to bluff with any two random napkins. He can fire for pot with J3 offsuit, and it will show an instant profit, because we fold to much. This can be ok, if we have a read, that a certain line is underbluffed, or a certain opponent is never bluffing (nit). But this situation is the exact opposite. We have no read on the opponent, and the line is overbluffed, or at least this is my opinion. We also have position, so playing the turn and river is easier for us than him.

Which is exactly why if I was in villain's position, I would be mixing in this kind of play to extract value from weaker Kx hands thinking that I have nothing.

You could do that, but a check-raise is a more effective way to get value on this board.

Only if the villain is very bad would he always play the same way and we just don't have that kind of information.

True but we also dont have information, that he only takes this line with hands, that beat KT. And again going back to my experience with this line I will say, that if we just look at two different hands, he could have, then this line is taken more often with A7 than KQ.

 

[najisami]

This is the about the second hand of the tournament and I do not know the villain. This is a 6-max Turbo tourney, single table, $20.
I open on the button with K 10o and villain on the small blind calls as does the big blind.
Flop comes 7s 2h Ks and villain makes a pot sized bet and big blind folds.

This does not seem like a big decision, but that is big bet. Villain could routinely lead with pot-sized bets, or perhaps he has a big hand, or perhaps
he is semi-bluffing. If I call the pot sized bet and don't improve, then what do I do on the turn when he fires out a bet somewhere between 225 and 450?
Could he have called with K2 or K7, not that likely but who knows. Does he have a set? Or does he likely have something like KJ or KQ? If he's
just a maniac then I'm making decisions for a significant portion of my stack.

View attachment 322649

I folded. Turns out he was a crazy maniac and busted out shortly after, but not before doubling up and knocking out
someone else on one of the craziest beats I've seen.



PokerStars, $18.50 + $1.50 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 - 6 players

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Sternamaki (UTG): 1,440 (72 bb)
JaguarPaw247 (MP): 975 (49 bb)
TavernMan258 (CO): 1,470 (74 bb)
runningqueens (BU): 2,075 (104 bb)
mauler330 (SB): 1,540 (77 bb)
BusyB919 (BB): 1,500 (75 bb)

Pre-Flop: (30) Hero (runningqueens) is BTN with K♦ T♥
3 players fold, runningqueens (BU) raises to 50, mauler330 (SB) calls 40, BusyB919 (BB) calls 30

Flop: (150) 7♠ 2♥ K♠ (3 players)
mauler330 (SB) bets 150, BusyB919 (BB) folds, runningqueens (BU) folds

Total pot: 150
mauler330 (SB) wins 150

Well, it looks like he's protecting something given that texture. The K is definitely in his range having called the raise OOP (AK,KQ, KJ...), Let alone 77 or 22. And what makes it worse is the fact that you have no idea about the guy. With all that said, folding is still too conservative, I mean, you opened and hit top pair, what else did you want ? AJQ ? I think you were still deep enough to float there and see what the turn would bring and what would he do, then you reevaluate.
This was just an opinion of course. I hope you ended up doing good afterwards.