$20 NL HE STT: Is this a good play by villain?

[StealTheButton]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

20

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

This is one of only a few solid players I have come across. I have seen him make calls like this several times. $20 Single Table Tourney, 6 max and 3 players left- bubble.

I have 6bb left and I jam from the button with A9o. Villain calls me from small blind with 44 and 22bb. The Big Blind had 17bb and folded.
A good portion of the time he is flipping, but he is way behind when I have a pocket pair larger than his- which will happen. It also puts the big blind in a great
position to squeeze.

I feel like it is a lousy call and I would not make it (and I'm surprised he does) however being on the bubble and the possibility of moving up into the money maybe turns this into a call?

He is on the button next hand and I am in the Big Blind next hand. He can raise from the button next hand and put pressure on me, which I think is a much better hand then simply calling off a portion of your stack. Opinions?



pokerstars, $18.50 + $1.50 - Hold'em No Limit - 100/200 - 3 players

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/4258Tg2lO [/B]]Replay this hand on CardsChat

runningqueens (BU): 1,199 (6 bb)
1Boomswitch (SB): 4,405 (22 bb)
AdamofEternia (BB): 3,396 (17 bb)

Pre-Flop: (300) Hero (runningqueens) is BTN with A♦ 9♣
runningqueens (BU) raises to 1,199 (all-in), 1Boomswitch (SB) 3-bets to 4,405 (all-in), 1 fold

Flop: (2,598) Q♥ K♣ 8♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (2,598) Q♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (2,598) 3♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 2,598

Showdown:
1Boomswitch (SB) shows 4♦ 4♠ (two pair, Queens and Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 54%, Flop: 72%, Turn: 73%, River: 100%)

runningqueens (BU) shows A♦ 9♣ (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 46%, Flop: 28%, Turn: 27%, River: 0%)

1Boomswitch (SB) wins 2,598

 

[Andyreas]

When I was reading, I was about to say he cannot just call with 30% of his stack but he 3-bet jams, which is a different thing.

I don't have any ICMizes anymore, so I cannot get a solid EV answer but he goes my basic analysis:
He probably thinks he has a better position in HU, if he wins your chips as well and has nearly double the chips as his opponent.
If he calls and looses, he's still second in chips. If he calls and wins, he's the CL by far and more close to winning.
Alone this situation makes it lean towards a call.

He can also assume that the midstack will let you both fight and not get in it, except if he has a monster like QQ+, for example.

Since you're down to 6 BBs, you're supposed to shove wider than usual. Indeed, he's still flipping most of the times but with a decent risk/reward ratio, in my opinion.

You're right with his favourable position in the next hand but he can get any two cards and probably he identifies you as a tight player who'll probably have a better hand if you decide to re-jam which will put him in an unfavorable position. If you just folded, he still hasn't won your chips.

 

[fundiver199]

He can also assume that the midstack will let you both fight and not get in it, except if he has a monster like QQ+, for example.

Exactly. When both opponents have moved all-in on the bubble, the mid-stack can only call with something like QQ+. So he is folding like 98,5% of the time, which mean, its almost like, Villain is closing the action here.

Indeed, he's still flipping most of the times but with a decent risk/reward ratio, in my opinion.

Also correct. He is putting in 1.100 to win 2.700, meaning he only need 40,7% equity in chip EV mode ignoring those rare times, where BB wakes up with QQ+ and put him in a bad spot.

 

[fundiver199]

Ran the hand in ICMizer now, and here are the results:

BTN jamming range: 22+, A2+, KT+, QT+, JT, K7s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s
SB overjamming range: 44+, A8+, A7+, KJs+
BB calling range: 88+, AQ+

So 44 is in fact a GTO overjam for SB, but 22-33 would be a fold. Also both Andyreas and I were wrong about the BB calling range. BB is actually supposed to call with 5,6% of hands, and the reason for that has to be, that if SB win the main pot, BB still get second place, even if he bust. And for that reason BB can actually call wider than, if BTN had folded, and SB had moved all-in.

By the way this seem to be a no-ante game, so this is, what I entered in ICMizer. For those of us playing in ante games like on the international PokerStars site, all the above ranges will be a little bit wider.

 

[StealTheButton]

Exactly. When both opponents have moved all-in on the bubble, the mid-stack can only call with something like QQ+. So he is folding like 98,5% of the time, which mean, its almost like, Villain is closing the action here.

Assuming the BB is playing correct poker. He may also choose to call with hands like AQo, KQs, 99+, etc.

Also correct. He is putting in 1.100 to win 2.700, meaning he only need 40,7% equity in chip EV mode ignoring those rare times, where BB wakes up with QQ+ and put him in a bad spot.

1.1 to win 2.6, or about 2.3: 1; not that this changes things much. He is in a bad spot when I have a pocket pair larger than his, which is going to happen a fair amount of time. Me, personally; I need AQ + and maybe 88 or 99+ to make this play here. I understand the logic, but I'm a tighter player.

 

[fundiver199]

Assuming the BB is playing correct poker. He may also choose to call with hands like AQo, KQs, 99+, etc.

The NASH equilibrium from ICMizer does actually have BB calling somewhat wider than just QQ+, so I was wrong about that, like I already wrote.

He is in a bad spot when I have a pocket pair larger than his, which is going to happen a fair amount of time. Me, personally; I need AQ + and maybe 88 or 99+ to make this play here.

Which is waaaay to tight. You are leaving a ton of money on the table, if you fold more than 50% of the hands, you are supposed to overjam with. As the ICMizer output show, 44 is the bottom of the SB overjamming range, so folding that particular hand is not a disaster. There can even be valid reasons to do that, like if you think, BTN is showing to tight, or that its better for future game play to let the bubble linger on rather than try to bust the short stack. But if you are also not overjamming with hands like 77 or AJ, thats deep into blunder territory, and there is no way, such folds are ever going to be the best decision.

I understand the logic, but I'm a tighter player.

I suggest getting past this way of thinking and be more open to improve your game. After all this is presumably why, you are sharing hands here in the first place