$20 NL HE STT: 3 bet to you with AQ

[StealTheButton]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

20

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

Four players left in a $20 STT tourney. The button has been playing a fairly tight game and has flat called my button raises holding hands like A6o, AJs, and 99. He re-raised me here aprox 3.5x and I'm getting 2 to 1 if I call. There are many players I'd snap call with this. It will cost about 17% of my stack to call.

The problem is that his most likely hands are AK, KK, and AA, and QQ (in that order) I don't see him making this play with 10 10 or J J (he'd probably jam, though he has not jammed a raise yet).

He is going to C-bet almost any flop and most of the time I am going to be behind. I'm going to lose my stack when I pair a card and I'm still behind. Does anyone think my analysis is flawed or that I'm playing too tight?

 

[D0nk3y Hunt3r]

According to your image of the villain, I would go the same thoughts route.
However in 3 seated I'm going all in with that no matter what. I think this or fold.

 

[eetenor]

Four players left in a $20 STT tourney. The button has been playing a fairly tight game and has flat called my button raises holding hands like A6o, AJs, and 99. He re-raised me here aprox 3.5x and I'm getting 2 to 1 if I call. There are many players I'd snap call with this. It will cost about 17% of my stack to call.

The problem is that his most likely hands are AK, KK, and AA, and QQ (in that order) I don't see him making this play with 10 10 or J J (he'd probably jam, though he has not jammed a raise yet).

He is going to C-bet almost any flop and most of the time I am going to be behind. I'm going to lose my stack when I pair a card and I'm still behind. Does anyone think my analysis is flawed or that I'm playing too tight?

If your range is correct than this is an easy fold--
How can we know if that range is correct? We try to use data that occurred prior to this hand.
First- are all the hands from above for Villain from the SB or from both blinds it makes a big difference in ranging a player- As you are first to act in this spot we are no longer thinking about BTN vs SB range interaction- your range is tighter so their range is tighter
Secondly what was the V's stack depth in those spots and how many players left at the time?---standard STT strat is to play tighter early and then loosen up later- As well does this STT pay 2 or 3 was it a 9 player or 6?
What skill level was the BB? If they are weak post flop I am flatting from the SB to get their stack with hands like 99 and AJs.
The V in this hand is now the stack leader are they adjusting range to ICM pressure you?
Have you seen the SB only have the best hands when they raise similar sizing-are they adjusting their sizing for position/ stack size or for range?

 

[StealTheButton]

If your range is correct than this is an easy fold--
How can we know if that range is correct? We try to use data that occurred prior to this hand.
First- are all the hands from above for Villain from the SB or from both blinds it makes a big difference in ranging a player- As you are first to act in this spot we are no longer thinking about BTN vs SB range interaction- your range is tighter so their range is tighter

These are all hand where I'm on the button and he is in big blind.

Secondly what was the V's stack depth in those spots and how many players left at the time?---standard STT strat is to play tighter early and then loosen up later- As well does this STT pay 2 or 3 was it a 9 player or 6?

He was around 15-25 bb I think in the previous hands I mentioned. Payout structure pays 2 places only. Oh sorry- this is a 6max turbo

What skill level was the BB? If they are weak post flop I am flatting from the SB to get their stack with hands like 99 and AJs.

Average, or slightly above. Definitely not the worst at the table.

The V in this hand is now the stack leader are they adjusting range to ICM pressure you?

No, I don't think so. And very few players understand this concept, at least at these stakes. I don't think ICM is a big factor here. We are all kinda-sorta at similar stack sizes, and the payout is only for two places.

Have you seen the SB only have the best hands when they raise similar sizing-are they adjusting their sizing for position/ stack size or for range?

If I recall this is the first time I am seeing this player 3 bet. I don't believe this is a play or that he is deep thinking about ICM.

 

[fundiver199]

The effective stack was more than 40BB, so I dont see any reason to assume, he has a 3-bet jamming range. Being in SB he can perhaps flat some hands, but mostly this is a 3-bet or fold spot for him. You say, you have seen him call your BTN raises with hands like A6, AJ and 99. But when you are BTN, he is BB, and this is a totally different story, since he is supposed to call a lot of hands from BB. AJ and 99 could be 3-bet, but its also totally fine to play them as a call from BB, whereas from SB they are almost mandatory 3-bets, because you want to drive out the player behind you.

So if this guy has any clue about "correct" preflop strategy, AQ is ahead of his 3-betting range, and you are getting position and a good price as well. On the international pokerstars site this is mandatory call against a reg or an unknown and also against most fish. But it is possible, that the american PokerStars sites still play like, live poker did 20 years ago, where a 3-bet basically meant a range like the one, you outlined. And if that is the case, then its fine to fold AQ the rare times, you get 3-bet. But to know, if that is actually true, or you are just guessing and possibly being super wrong, it would be usefull to have HUD-data to back up such a theory.

 

[StealTheButton]

Very interesting. Yes you can never now. It's not impossible for him to have something KQs, A 10s, or any pocket pair; but this is the first time I saw him 3 bet. And I'm gonna trust my instinct. I've gotten burned by AQ so many times so that when it is not clear I will often fold.

 

[fundiver199]

There is nothing wrong with going by reads or "instincts". But I will encourage you to at least consider, if that is, what you were actually doing, or if you just chose the easy route of losing a small pot instead of putting yourself in a difficult and uncomfortable spot. Calling 3-bets with a hand like AQ is never comfortable, although a bit more so in position. As you say, we are always in a bluff catching spot, even when we flop a pair.

We have all tried to call a 3-bet with AQ, see an A high flop and end up losing a big pot to the obvious AK. Or see a Q high flop and end up losing a big pot to the obvious KK. This sucks, and therefore there is a risk of suffering from confirmation bias like "yeah of course he had that, how could I be so stupid?" Whereas maybe in reality you played your hand perfectly fine and just happened to run into the top of his range.

The issue is, that if you dont defend with AQ, you are folding something like 90% of your CO opening range to his 3-bet, which is quite obviously very exploitable. He can make a profit by 3-betting you with almost any two cards, if you fold this much. Maybe he dont do this, and if he does, you will likely pick up on it. But this is still a fundamental problem, especially if he is using a HUD, and you are not.

So my other suggestion to you will be to start using a HUD. This is the exact sort of spot, its usefull for, because it allow you to have a "memory", which go back to previous games, you played with the opponent. Maybe this was his first 3-bet in this SnG, but that does not say much, when it was only the third blind level, meaning you had only played like maybe 20 hands or so, and 3-betting stats dont really start to become reliable until after 300 hands.

 

[Matt_Burns88]

Narrowing villains 3bet range to QQ+ and AK when you are 4 handed and 40+bb effective does not seem realistic, even for a tight opponent. If this was the case, you can only really continue with KK and AA, which, as Fundiver said is folding something like 90% of your CO opening range and makes you grossly exploitable.

How many hands do you have on this guy in order for you to make this assumption?

 

[Baldy86]

nah ...i think you are too cautious in that spot . you also say that he called your button raises holding hands like A6o, AJs, and 99 . i think with AQ you are good in most of the times . and if not then you are around coin flip at worst

i would have pushed all in if i were you ....i mean ....4 players left

 

[ipagan]

I think that fundriver said very good about this! It would be ok for me to fold this hand on a 3-bet as well, but mostly because I want to play more comfortable spots, which is a sign of fear really.. That what i thought after reading what fundiver199 said..But if you whant to improve your game, you want to play more with more aggression and defend more on the opps aggression. Again, fundiver199 jsut opende my eyes on this , you need to defend such hands, otherwise what hands do you want to play with?