$2 PLO8 MTT Rebuy: PLO8 ICM spot

[awesome]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 63/23/1.1

This is final table. There are 8 players left and 7 get paid. There is one player to my left with a bit more than a bb left (3000 chips at the 1250/2500 level). The short stack had lasted four orbits w 1-2bb and not busting.

The chip leader was abusing the bubble as he should. His already loose numbers of 63% VPIP and 23% PFR were 2x at this stage.

Game started at: 2017/3/20 12:34:41
Game ID: 870026837 1250/2500 $200 GTD PLO8 R/A, Table 7 (Omaha HiLow)

Seat 8 is the button
Seat 2: kaspel (33908).
Seat 3: VILLAIN (112452).
Seat 4: HERO (13084).
Seat 5: Full of It (3053).
Seat 6: kroe_bar (43469).
Seat 7: mimkey20 (14922).
Seat 8: 31hammer2073 (6190).
Seat 9: futon8888 (61922).
Player futon8888 has small blind (1250)
Player kaspel has big blind (2500)

Player HERO received card: [Jh]
Player HERO received card: [Ac]
Player HERO received card: [8s]
Player HERO received card: [Ah]
Player

Player VILLAIN raises (5000)

So the chip leader minraised UTG and HERO has AAJ8ss UTG+1.

What do you do with AAxx in this spot? Do you just fold and wait another orbit for the short stack to go bust or rip and hope for the best against a wide range? Note, if I don't take this spot, I will have to go through the blinds before it gets to the short stack. If I fold the blinds, I will have less than 4bb.

Thanks for your help.

 

[trent32la]

Toss it. AAJ8 is a farily average PLO8 hand and it's not gonna be crushing an EP opening range.

There's no antes so you can nit up more along with two <2bb stacks and a similar stack. Getting it in here would be suicidal without AA2x, AA3x, or a very good double suited hand that contains A2xx or A3xx.

If this is a mid game spot, I would definitely get it in.

 

[awesome]

I know its ICM suicide but the real payouts are up top and if I fold here I will have no playability going forward so I ripped bc V's stats were pretty ridiculous with a 45% PFR at this stage.

The good news:

VILLAIN shows: [Kh 10s Kd Jd].

The bad news:

Player HERO allin (13084)
Player Full of It folds
Player kroe_bar folds
Player mimkey20 folds
Player 31hammer2073 folds
Player futon8888 folds
Player kaspel folds
Player VILLAIN calls (8084)
*** FLOP ***: [Kc Qc Ad]
*** TURN ***: [Kc Qc Ad] [6c]
*** RIVER ***: [Kc Qc Ad 6c] [7d]
------ Summary ------
Pot: 29918
Board: [Kc Qc Ad 6c 7d]
Player kaspel does not show cards.Bets: 2500. Collects: 0. Loses: 2500.
*Player VILLAIN shows: Straight to A [Kh 10s Kd Jd]. Bets: 13084. Collects: 29918. Wins: 16834.
Player HERO shows: Three Of Kind of As [Jh Ac 8s Ah]. Bets: 13084. Collects: 0. Loses: 13084.
Player Full of It does not show cards.Bets: 0. Collects: 0. Wins: 0.
Player kroe_bar does not show cards.Bets: 0. Collects: 0. Wins: 0.
Player mimkey20 does not show cards.Bets: 0. Collects: 0. Wins: 0.
Player 31hammer2073 does not show cards.Bets: 0. Collects: 0. Wins: 0.
Player futon8888 does not show cards.Bets: 1250. Collects: 0. Loses: 1250.
Game ended at: 2017/3/20 12:35:13

 

[trent32la]

I know its ICM suicide but the real payouts are up top and if I fold here I will have no playability going forward so I ripped bc V's stats were pretty ridiculous with a 45% PFR at this stage.

This is a really bad mindset to have on the money bubble of a tourney like this. You aren't destined to win every final table you make. In your situation, you are trying to maximize the amount of money you can make.

Might I add, even if you double here, you go from tied for 6th outta 8 to 4/8. If you lose, you get zero. I'm no PLO8 expert, however I'd like to think amount of equity you need to stack off here with AAxx and a shitty low possibility vs villain's range does not outweigh the ICM tax.

 

[awesome]

fair enough. but I have a 29% ITM% w 242 avg entrants. I'm working on these ICM spots which a ton of work needs to be done on bc I'm min cashing way too often and need to add some higher variance to my game.

Taking this spot one person away from the bubble with a short stack is admittedly poor but I find this happens a lot in split pot bubble situations where there is a super short stack. The problem is that if the super short stack plays tight, they can at least split a pot in the blinds and like I said this happened through 5 orbits which was destroying my chip stack.

Again, this specific spot is bad but I need to work on these spots.

 

[awesome]

Since equities run so close in PLO8 it's probably better to see as many cheap flops in position as possible rather than having these all or nothing bubble spots.

 

[lotuspod]

If you were going to play for the top 3 spots you would've had to make moves well before this to set yourself up properly. You don't have anything invested in the pot, so I'd just fold much of the time(kinda depends on opponents and such though). Lock up that min cash and then you're free to go wild from there.

Not too happy about folding it, but still aa8x is terrible for lo and aaxx without a wheel card only plays well 3+handed. Big stacks min-raise range at that point prolly has tons of small suited/connector hands which have you dominated all in pre. Preflop o8 is more about suits, connectors, and the lo potential...rather than pocket pairs.

 

[Darth_Moola]

I feel your predicament. Looks like you had them 60/40 based on perceived range, and 70/30 on the actual hole cards. Personally, ICM is difficult for me to grasp, so I can't really help there. However, if I were in your position, I think this would be a tough, but necessary fold. This is because of position and being right at the bubble. I know that you weren't called by anyone but the villain, but if just one person calls with a 20% range, your chances of winning plummet to 38% when considering the UTG range. The odds of 1/5 of the remaining opponents having a range worth calling is just too good, in my opinion. If you were in the blinds already, or even on the button, this is a call, knowing the villain. but UTG+1 is too risky.

 

[playinggameswithu]

I wouldn't play a hand in a PLO MTT let alone a PLO8 because it gets super super tricky around the bubble, best thing to do is not play a hand....you got effectively pocket 4's with the aces....in PLO aces play very similar to pocket 4's. I'd fold so quick I'd sprain my wrist.