$2 NLHE STT Turbo: AQs in BB on the bubble facing a shove from an equal stack

[jaded848]

$2 NL HE STT Turbo: AQs in BB on the bubble facing a shove from an equal stack

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 10/7/20

I had seen villain call a shove with AJ at the start of the game to double up. Assuming he knew what he was doing, his range was probably pretty wide here since he knew his fold equity would be padded with the super short stack still present. I was pretty sure my AQs was good, but with the 570 stack still in the game and on the bubble, can I possible call here? The only upside is that if I win this, I basically secure 2nd place and have a reasonable chance at 1st. But if I bust, my equity goes to zero- and if I'm against an underpair or even 2 undercards, thats not that unlikely. My guess is that this is a fold unless you have QQ+??

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
SB (t2330)
Hero (BB) (t2510)
UTG (t570)
Button (t8090)
Hero's M: 8.37
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q

, A

2 folds, SB bets t2330 (All-In)
Hero ????

 

[WiZZiM]

std fold.

 

[WiZZiM]

Thought i better expand on this.

If he knows what hes doing he wont be shoving a very wide range, due to the fact the shortie is going thru the blinds soon.

Im actually going to pull up SNG wiz for this, as it's a really good example of how ICM overvalues shortstacks and undervalues Big stacks.

Forgive my MS Paint 'skills'. but in example one, that is a range i think may be ok with shoving (this is just hypothetical, im always going to be either folding, or raise/folding in this spot rarely would i be shipping, and if i did, it would be a super tight range, but lets say in this example, the guy is a reg, but a bad one)

As we can see, calling with AQ is an obvious mistake in terms of $Ev.

Ok in example #2, lets say the villain is a retard, and decides this is a good "Anytwo card shove" now the Wiz tells us it's a call? Hang on that doesnt seem right does it? Calling off as an equal stack with AQs, hahah yeah right.

So why does SNG Wiz tell us it's a shove. Well, basically put, ICM overvalues short stacks As you can see we have around 200 chips left over, which if we call and lose we leave ourselves some chance of making the money, but it isn't a huge chance, were basically left with 1bb. which is never a good thing.

So how do we counteract this ICM shortcoming? Well in this situation, and also pretty much any other situation you come across when using sng wizard, it's best to set the stacks to equal. That way you are going to get a much more accurate answer. As shown in #3 and #4 ive set both stacks to equal and look at the findings, Finally weve reached the correct conclusion. This is why i stress the importance of knowing how to use the wizard, because otherwise, we can be training ourselves to play incorrectly.

 

[Dwilius]

Well you can't completely discount your equity if you're shortstacked like you've done in example 3 + 4 (by making it so the shove puts you all in), right? Still have a real chance at cashing, is it because sngwiz doesn't take into account you will likely see a multiway showdown that you consider it so inaccurate for shortstacks?

...or is that not so likely anyway, would the bigtstack try to push the second stack out to keep the two tiny stacks in, to abuse the 2nd place player? I'm very begginnerish at sngos obviously.

 

[WiZZiM]

well yes you still have equity(1bb), but it's still overvaluing the stack you have remaining. Notice the jump in ranges we can profitably call with, that's the key. And yes, because wiz can only look at this one situation, it also doesnt account for the future concerns. Like in one hand were going to be committed to calling in the SB in most situations.

The idea behind posting this is for the guys who have sng wiz, when your reviewing a situation with similair stacks, you will get a much more accurate answer, sometimes it may only be a small jump in the range, other times it can be quite big.

 

[WiZZiM]

Oh and im not discounting that equity, im looking at this for pure review purposes, like, Is calling here with AQs good? well, it looks like it is if we don't even the stacks out... when in reality, Calling AQs here is horrendous.

 

[Dwilius]

Alright, point taken. I didn't realize it didn't take into account the resulting situation - like where you will be compared to the blind, and use that next hand in the calculation of your tournament equity.

 

[WiZZiM]

It just looks and sees, "oh hes left with chips, lets open up his calling range" basically

 

[Jillychemung]

Great post WiZZiM and a great illustration!!!

 

[FTP_TheNuts]

his AF cant be 20. Think you got that wrong.

But $2.25 turbo, with an M of 8, im drunk right now so i snap.

But its a fold under normal situations allegedly.

 

[jaded848]

his AF cant be 20. Think you got that wrong.

But $2.25 turbo, with an M of 8, im drunk right now so i snap.

But its a fold under normal situations allegedly.

I always put the AFq, thats the default PT3 uses.


WiZZiM, thanks for your post. For some reason those images popped up in my head and I felt like QQ+ was what it would say. Is the reverse true as well? As in, if the SB and I switched spots, I would need QQ in order to shove on the BB?

 

[Poker Orifice]

I always put the AFq, thats the default PT3 uses.


WiZZiM, thanks for your post. For some reason those images popped up in my head and I felt like QQ+ was what it would say. Is the reverse true as well? As in, if the SB and I switched spots, I would need QQ in order to shove on the BB?

No, you can shove way wider than QQ here..... villain 'realistically' shouldn't be calling you w/o QQ+... BUT.. it is player read dependant.. ie. "is villain ICM dumb?"... "does villain believe I'm ICM dumb or ICM aware?"

In the micros, you might be surprised at what some randoms will actually call you down with, even w a SS on the table (ie. on bubble Utg with 2bb's folds... myself in SB I actually get a monster "JJ" & shove (SB(me) & BB about even, BTN is a bigstack who folded). Both blinds are 12+bb's deep, BB snaps my shove with K2o... & hits ftw!!! I bubble. Things to look for... watch for the random who'll call down w TPWK in early levels, the guy who can't let go of AX type hands, etc.,.. these same guys are almost always ICM dumb & will call down really wide (not always, as some do the opposite.. super spewy in early levels & then tight in mid-late levels).

 

[WiZZiM]

No, you can shove way wider than QQ here..... villain 'realistically' shouldn't be calling you w/o QQ+... BUT.. it is player read dependant.. ie. "is villain ICM dumb?"... "does villain believe I'm ICM dumb or ICM aware?"

In the micros, you might be surprised at what some randoms will actually call you down with, even w a SS on the table (ie. on bubble Utg with 2bb's folds... myself in SB I actually get a monster "JJ" & shove (SB(me) & BB about even, BTN is a bigstack who folded). Both blinds are 12+bb's deep, BB snaps my shove with K2o... & hits ftw!!! I bubble. Things to look for... watch for the random who'll call down w TPWK in early levels, the guy who can't let go of AX type hands, etc.,.. these same guys are almost always ICM dumb & will call down really wide (not always, as some do the opposite.. super spewy in early levels & then tight in mid-late levels).

Hahaha, Yeah it happens a bit, Like ill shove from the SB, equal stacks, 10bb's, my shoving range has to be kinda tight as i knew the villains stupid, i shove my AK of course, and he calls with K5of suit? When there was a guy with about 1.5bb's and was about to be put into the BB, i couldnt believe it, Got into the money with a huge stack, took it down a few hands later.. Some of these guys are so stupid, i have no idea why they would do such things, when they are so close to cashing.

 

[drgilbert4]

It is a strategic fold situation. It would suck to run into a PP or AK and go out on the bubble when another guys stack is down to 570. Get that guy out and then try to steal or double. A call here is not good. 4th pays $0. Get to the money. You are in good shape to make 2nd or 3rd with a fold. If you don't win the hand you're done.

 

[jaded848]

Hahaha, Yeah it happens a bit, Like ill shove from the SB, equal stacks, 10bb's, my shoving range has to be kinda tight as i knew the villains stupid, i shove my AK of course, and he calls with K5of suit? When there was a guy with about 1.5bb's and was about to be put into the BB, i couldnt believe it, Got into the money with a huge stack, took it down a few hands later.. Some of these guys are so stupid, i have no idea why they would do such things, when they are so close to cashing.

Whenever I do this, honest to God the 5 hits every time.