$2 NLHE STT Turbo: 33 in the BB facing UTG raise, about 6 BBs

[jaded848]

$2 NL HE STT Turbo: 33 in the BB facing UTG raise, about 6 BBs

Villain was 26/13. Nothing really outstanding about him, regular tight player. I can't tell if my shove here is standard or not. If he had shoved, can I call?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 80/160 Blinds (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
MP1 (t1415)
MP2 (t1780)
CO (t885)
Button (t800)
SB (t2905)
Hero (BB) (t1255)
UTG (t4460)
Hero's M: 5.23
Preflop: Hero is BB with 3

, 3

UTG bets t480, 5 folds, Hero raises to t1255 (All-In), UTG calls t775
Flop: (t2590) 9

, A

, 9

(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t2590) 8

(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t2590) J

(2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: t2590

 

[c9h13no3]

Simple pot odds question. If you don't like math, read the part in red font at the end.

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

If you fold to his raise, you have 9.3% tournament equity.
If you jam, and he folds, you have 14.3% equity.
If you jam, and he calls, and you win, you have 18.8% equity.
If you jam, he calls, and you lose, you have 0% equity.

So... lets do some simple math.

If he never folds, you have to win this often: 9.3/18.8 = 0.49 or 49%
If he folds 25% of the time, you have to win this often: (0.25*0.143) + (0.188*W) = 0.093. Solving for W, you get 30%.

So if he never folds, we have to win half the time. If he folds just a quarter of the time, we only have to win when we're all in 30% of the time.

This decision then just comes down to how often you think your opponent will fold. If he folds 25% of the time or so, this becomes a decent play. However, your opponent raised UTG (so he likely has a good hand), his stats are solid (so he likely has a good hand), and he'll be getting really good pot odds to call (2.34 to 1) which if he has half a brain, he'll realize that he can't fold to. So he's calling. Like, every time.

Thus, I think this is a super standard fold.

 

[OzExorcist]

My answer isn't as deep as c9's, but the outcome is the same: villain's never folding and the very best we can hope for is a flip so I think we fold and wait for a better spot.

And no, I definitely don't think we can call if he'd have just open shoved... as weird a play as that would be for a tight villain with a massive chip lead.

 

[jaded848]

Where could I draw the line for a shove here? Even with a hand like TT I'm likely either racing or crushed by something like JJ, so what hands can I get it in with?

 

[c9h13no3]

Where could I draw the line for a shove here?

A hand that has ~45% equity against his calling range.

 

[djkismet]

Simple pot odds question. If you don't like math, read the part in red font at the end.

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

If you fold to his raise, you have 9.3% tournament equity.
If you jam, and he folds, you have 14.3% equity.
If you jam, and he calls, and you win, you have 18.8% equity.
If you jam, he calls, and you lose, you have 0% equity.

So... lets do some simple math.

If he never folds, you have to win this often: 9.3/18.8 = 0.49 or 49%
If he folds 25% of the time, you have to win this often: (0.25*0.143) + (0.188*W) = 0.093. Solving for W, you get 30%.

So if he never folds, we have to win half the time. If he folds just a quarter of the time, we only have to win when we're all in 30% of the time.

This decision then just comes down to how often you think your opponent will fold. If he folds 25% of the time or so, this becomes a decent play. However, your opponent raised UTG (so he likely has a good hand), his stats are solid (so he likely has a good hand), and he'll be getting really good pot odds to call (2.34 to 1) which if he has half a brain, he'll realize that he can't fold to. So he's calling. Like, every time.

Thus, I think this is a super standard fold.

im really looking to learn more about this type of mathmatical way of playin whats a good suggestion for learning the equations?

 

[WiZZiM]

it's not like you are going to be able to work stuff like this out at the table, its just a way to sort of train yourself into intuitively knowing what the correct play is at the table. Software like SNG Wizard is very handy, The way above is quite time consuming(correct me if im wrong), especially if you mass multitable.

Jump onto that site linked in his post, it has a basic ICM calculator, you can put in some numbers and play around with some situations there. It also has some articles concerning ICM which you might want to take a look at.

 

[c9h13no3]

Yeah, no one actually does that sort of math at the table. I just have to do it because I don't play tournaments that often, so I don't really have any sort of intuition for what correct play is. But I can often give good advice just looking at things from a mathematical perspective, so I'll chime in when threads don't have any replies.

 

[cjatud2012]

I like a fold here, we don't have any fold equity and we're not doing that well against our opponent's range.

 

[djkismet]

it's not like you are going to be able to work stuff like this out at the table, its just a way to sort of train yourself into intuitively knowing what the correct play is at the table. Software like SNG Wizard is very handy, The way above is quite time consuming(correct me if im wrong), especially if you mass multitable.

Jump onto that site linked in his post, it has a basic ICM calculator, you can put in some numbers and play around with some situations there. It also has some articles concerning ICM which you might want to take a look at.

well i have a casino opening 12 blocks from my house in 2.5 months, also have found a cash fame like something out of the movies down in center city and have been doing well and i know ill b there plenty. ive learned to play position and range pretty well. especially in seperating that in tourney n ring games. and im also pretty well schooled on the basic math now and am lookin to move up in knowledge of the math like the equations above. is there any literature you can suggest that will help me with this. or it just my fault for droppin out of high school not goin to college and getting lucky w/ a music career lol?

 

[c9h13no3]

Yeah, I honestly don't know a good reference to teach you this stuff. I've got a degree in Chemical Engineering, and I'm a chemistry graduate student, so my math background is sufficient that this stuff seems very simple & obvious. So I didn't really read any books, so I wouldn't know any books to recommend on the math of poker.

But I just looked at it this way: For shoving to be better than folding if he never folds to our shove, then the value of us winning the all in has to give us more tournament equity than folding does. So you make an equation:

X*W + Y*(1-W) = F

Where X is the tournament equity we have when we win the shove, Y is the equity we have when we lose the shove (zero, in this case), and W is our chance of winning. F is the tournament equity we get when we fold.

Just math.

 

[WiZZiM]

Yep, i have no idea about books on math of poker, i havent read too many poker related books.

The way i got good in sng was studying my own HH, and using software like SNG wizard. found a heap of interesting spots to anaylize, then i took them and tweaked the parameters to see how that affected things. It helped me to accurately eyeball a situation and know wheather it was good or bad.

For SNG, something like moshmans books would be good for an absolute beginner, i eyeballed the book the other day, havent read through it, though.

So, while i think learning math like this is good, and important. There's always one way to skin a cat. Some like to do it with math, others like to use psych skills, Others like to read up on strategy, and tricks etc. If math is your strong point, then by all means use it..

 

[OzExorcist]

There's a book called Killer Poker By the Numbers that claims to teach the math and related strategy of poker. I haven't read it but I've liked other books in the series.

c9 and WiZZiM have it though, you don't actually need to be able to do this stuff on the fly to be a successful player and if you apply yourself for a little while it's actually pretty easy to pick up anyway.