$2 NLHE Rebuy: Quadruple All-In

[politude]

$2 NL HE Rebuy: Quadruple All-In

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.2 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

UTG+1 (t4405)
MP1 (t7170)
MP2 (t5730)
Hero (MP3) (t7807)
CO (t1626)
Button (t3173)
SB (t4834)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t3000)

Hero's M: 52.05

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A

, K

1 fold, UTG+1 bets t350, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t5730 (All-In), Hero calls t5730, 3 folds, BB calls t1400 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t4055 (All-In)

Flop: (t17415) 2

, 5

, Q

(4 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: (t17415) 6

(4 players, 3 all-in)

River: (t17415) 9

(4 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: t17415

Results:
BB had A

, J

(high card, Ace).
UTG+1 had Q

, A

(one pair, Queens).
MP2 had K

, Q

(one pair, Queens).
Hero had A

, K

(high card, Ace).
Outcome: UTG+1 won t14765, MP2 won t2650

Was there reason for me to fold here pre-flop?

 

[bubonicplay]

lol please post this in bbv. You got it in with the best hand got sucked out on and want to have folded? It's a rebuy, people are going to take risks like this. You gave yourself a very good shot to quadruple up very early. Why would you ever consider folding here?

 

[Jillychemung]

1 fold, UTG+1 bets t350, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t5730 (All-In), Hero calls [/quote]


Why oh WHY aren't you shipping it here to at least try and isolate? In the $2 rebuy, during the rebuy period, I'm shoving AK 100% of the time without a 2nd thought no matter what the action is ahead of me.

 

[politude]

Rebuy period and add-on periods passed by that point. This was after everyone was in for the long haul.

 

[Jillychemung]

Well my 1st question still stands. Why are you flat calling this shove instead of going AI to try and isolate?? Yeah you still would have lost the hand and give the play by the others yeah there would likely be 4 AI's in this hand but IMHO it makes me cry to see you flat call this huge over-shove and not even attempt to isolate.

 

[cjatud2012]

I think what part of what makes AK such a powerful hand is that you can 3-bet/4-bet with it and be confident that you are never far behind if you are called. However, being called is the less desirable result-- I would much prefer to get some folds when I push AK than I would to get calls. So when there's a 3-bet all-in in front of us so we have no fold equity, and our M is greater than 50, I would probably fold AK.

 

[FTP_TheNuts]

All in, its rebuy and $2, get it in good and hope, you did nothing wrong

 

[Jillychemung]

Yeah cj that's all true. I'd like to know what OP was thinking before he clicked the call button here. Reads on MP2, what range was OP expecting MP2 to have with this huge overshove and was UTG+1 likely to call are just 3 of the things that I would have answered before making a decision (and there is plenty of time to think about these and more).

 

[TPC]

Well my 1st question still stands. Why are you flat calling this shove instead of going AI to try and isolate?? Yeah you still would have lost the hand and give the play by the others yeah there would likely be 4 AI's in this hand but IMHO it makes me cry to see you flat call this huge over-shove and not even attempt to isolate.

The guy that shoved had the second biggest stack of active players. Our Hero has the biggest stack at the table. So calling or shoving is the same thing in this scenario.

 

[TPC]

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A

, K

1 fold, UTG+1 bets t350, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t5730 (All-In), Hero calls t5730, 3 folds, BB calls t1400 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t4055 (All-In)


Like others said we need to know what kind of reads you had on the players that acted in front of you in this hand. There is a UTG +1 raise, and a huge three bet shove. We need to think of what UTG+1 range is and what MP2 would shove so big with?

Also, how long is left till the rebuy period is over? You need to look at your stack you have almost 8k in chips and an M of 52. You are in great shape!!! There is a raise and a three bet shove infront of you and you're looking at calling off 75% of your chip stack getting 1.1 to 1 in a situation that historically says you are in a coin flip at best!!! This is a fold imo.

 

[TPC]

Rebuy period and add-on periods passed by that point. This was after everyone was in for the long haul.

Sorry didn't see this quote till now. so the rebuy is over. Which means everyone's range should be getting tighter. I'm not calling of 75% of my stack when there is a good chance I'm in a coin flip at best. You have an M of 52, you are in great shape!!! I would wait for a better spot, with better odds. A spot where I had some FE too.

 

[bubonicplay]

lol it's a 2 dollar donkament, people are shoving stuff like A5, 67s, other random shit we crush. We're wayyyyyyyy ahead here. Please don't ever fold here.

 

[cjatud2012]

Out of curiosity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.453% 43.03% 01.42% 254829996 8406066.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 14.725% 13.31% 01.42% 78788172 8406066.00 { A5o }
Hand 2: 40.822% 40.70% 00.13% 240983088 752340.00 { 76s }

And just for fun:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.926% 29.61% 01.31% 833590080 36949581.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 10.995% 09.68% 01.31% 272542968 36949581.00 { A5o }
Hand 2: 35.369% 35.26% 00.11% 992568888 3039741.00 { 76s }
Hand 3: 22.711% 22.60% 00.11% 636252156 3039741.00 { 22 }

Don't gamble with an M of 52. Srsly.

 

[TPC]

lol it's a 2 dollar donkament, people are shoving stuff like A5, 67s, other random shit we crush. We're wayyyyyyyy ahead here. Please don't ever fold here.

Rebuy period is over, calling for 75% of your stack with 1 to 1 odds is just stupid when your M is 52.

 

[bubonicplay]

Out of curiosity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.453% 43.03% 01.42% 254829996 8406066.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 14.725% 13.31% 01.42% 78788172 8406066.00 { A5o }
Hand 2: 40.822% 40.70% 00.13% 240983088 752340.00 { 76s }

And just for fun:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.926% 29.61% 01.31% 833590080 36949581.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 10.995% 09.68% 01.31% 272542968 36949581.00 { A5o }
Hand 2: 35.369% 35.26% 00.11% 992568888 3039741.00 { 76s }
Hand 3: 22.711% 22.60% 00.11% 636252156 3039741.00 { 22 }

Don't gamble with an M of 52. Srsly.

umm we need over 25% for it to be a good call. I'll happily snapcall if you show me those hands face up and all-in. The fact that you think this proves your point just shows that you have no concept of equity at all and just think on a super basic level "omg don't wanna risk my tourney life". Let me guess you're the one who brags about his itm% rather than his roi? The money in mtts is in winning, not in surviving. Having a very good chance at quadrupling up is a very good thing.

Rebuy period is over, calling for 75% of your stack with 1 to 1 odds is just stupid when your M is 52.

If it's a +ev call I could have an M of 89273598723598235 and I'd still call. It's just plain +ev, what about that don't you understand?

let me put if clearer. YOU ARE THROWING MONEY AWAY BY FOLDING IN THIS SPOT. I can't believe I have to say this but seriously read the guy above you's post where he thinks he's arguing against me. It proves my point perfectly. You need 25% equity here to make the stack profitable. You have it. Get all your ****ing chips in.

 

[cjatud2012]

Not plain EV. cEV =/= $EV. Quadrupling our chips does not mean we are four times more likely to win the tournament, and the $$.

 

[TPC]

Besides that, at the time of the call we don't know we are getting the other callers. Also we aren't quadrupling our chips in this hand anyway, we are a little more than doubling our stack if we win.

 

[jernest]

Besides that, at the time of the call we don't know we are getting the other callers. Also we aren't quadrupling our chips in this hand anyway, we are a little more than doubling our stack if we win.

^^^^This, and by calling/shoving we are pricing everyone at the table in for a call, greatly reducing our chance at winning the hand. Should not be getting involved in this hand with this opponent (depending on reads of course) with anything less than KK+.

 

[nevadanick]

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A

, K

1 fold, UTG+1 bets t350, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t5730 (All-In), Hero calls t5730, 3 folds, BB calls t1400 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t4055 (All-In)

<snip>

Also, how long is left till the rebuy period is over? You need to look at your stack you have almost 8k in chips and an M of 52. You are in great shape!!! There is a raise and a three bet shove infront of you and you're looking at calling off 75% of your chip stack getting 1.1 to 1 in a situation that historically says you are in a coin flip at best!!! This is a fold imo.

Rebuy period is over, calling for 75% of your stack with 1 to 1 odds is just stupid when your M is 52.

I'm with TPC on this. It's a fold... wouldn't even have to think twice.

 

[bubonicplay]

Not plain EV. cEV =/= $EV. Quadrupling our chips does not mean we are four times more likely to win the tournament, and the $$.

Yeah, because of the top-heavy nature of mtt payouts it actually more than likely more than quadruples your expectation. I'm not 100% on this but I'm pretty sure.

Besides that, at the time of the call we don't know we are getting the other callers. Also we aren't quadrupling our chips in this hand anyway, we are a little more than doubling our stack if we win.

But if we get HU we're more than 50%, 3-way we're more than 33%, 4-way more than 25%, etc. against most $2 rebuy calling ranges and yes I know it's after rebuy period but I've played in these before and it's not uncommon to see stuff like A3o call an all-in after 2 are all-in in front.

^^^^This, and by calling/shoving we are pricing everyone at the table in for a call, greatly reducing our chance at winning the hand. Should not be getting involved in this hand with this opponent (depending on reads of course) with anything less than KK+.

I'm with TPC on this. It's a fold... wouldn't even have to think twice.

Look I don't want to be mean but you guys are just plain wrong. Ask anyone who's any good at tournaments. You are giving away money by not shipping AK here every time you get the chance to do it. I think I explained it pretty well but this super level 1 (level 0?) thinking of "omg we might lose this hand" just shows an extreme lack of understanding of tournament and poker knowledge in general. If you want to argue icm and actually make an argument with real numbers you'd have a point, but then you'd see that all the numbers actually support my side. But keep playing for that survival and trying to maximize the mincashes, meanwhile I'll be giving myself a real shot at where the real money is in mtts, the top, and actually worrying about maximizing my equity in the tourney rather than just cashing as much as I can.

I'm just going out on a limb here and guessing that most of the guys arguing for folding AK here are the ones that are frequently timebank-stalling with like 2bb on the bubble and then wonder why you never go deep and can't win money long-term in mtts?

 

[cjatud2012]

I like how you keep judging me and others and associating us with bad strategies like stalling, or lame braggs about ITM vs ROI. If you wanna go that route, my ROI is actually higher than my ITM on Tilt where I play most often (my stats on Stars are very embarassing, lol). Check my OPR. So please, stop making these condenscending assumptions.

If we were deep in this tournament and our M was smaller, I think I'd make this call/overshove. But at this point, it's just not worth it. We're taking a flat out gamble for our tournament life, which is different from gambling with appropriate pot odds in a cash game. We want to get our chips in when we're dominating, not when we're less than 50% to win. In a tournament, you can't just say the pot odds are right.

I would actually argue against your point that successful MTT players are shipping this here. Most pros prefer the line with the least amount of risk, especially before the money, and will implement an aggressive blind stealing strategy to slowly accumulate chips, rather than taking guaranteed gambles like this one.

 

[bubonicplay]

I never mentioned my itm or roi so I don't see how I'm bragging. btw you realize itm and roi are entirely different scales right? I mean my itm is over my penis size so obv I cash a LOTTTTTTT

Anyway I'm done. Do any reasonable icm calculation and you'll see that you're wrong but if you wanna keep on folding an ace and a king preflop when you absolutely crush their range then w/e go ahead.

 

[TPC]

LOL, bubonicplay, I'll put my ROI up against yours any day. You are ignoring the numbers and creating ranges and hands that help support your claim.

We are not quadrupling our stack in this scenario, in fact at the time of the call, we aren't even doubling our stack. We are calling off 75% of our stack with 1.1 to 1 odds, which is just terrible. If the others call behind us with Ax and we happen to be up against a middle pair, they are calling with some of our outs.

Again, at the time of making the call, we don't know what the others behind us are going to do. AK is a strong hand, don't get me wrong, but in this situation it's a fold.

OP didn't give us any reads on the players, we have a UTG + 1 raise. You can pretty much assume top 5% of hands in this situation, maybe a little wider. There is a shove over the top, again we have no reads, but a lot of the time we are looking at a middle pair. These guys don't know what to do if a bunch of overs flop and they would rather get it in pre flop. So if we use those ranges we are looking at:

----------equity ---- win -----tie
Hand 0: 29.501% 26.02% 03.48%{ AKo }
Hand 1: 37.196% 33.47% 03.73%{ 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 2: 33.302% 32.95% 00.35%{ TT-77 }

We need a lot better than 1.1 to 1 to call off 75% of our stack. I would rather have my big stack at the table and pick my spots where I can bully players around and continue to build my stack.

Later as the blinds continue to rise, antes start and the short stacks are desparate and the middle stacks are panicing as the bubble is nearing that is where you make your push to grow your stack and make the final run to the final table, calling off 75% of your stack with an M of 52, odds of 1.1 to 1 and blinds at 50/100 is just plain stupid!!!

You are risking your whole tourney on one hand with terrible odds, that's not a way to go deep in a tourney. Sure if you win, you are gold, but we are losing this hand 75% of the time. We need to be getting 4 to 1 to make that call.

 

[Marginal]

If you are folding this hand in the situation presented (forget the fact that the other 2 guys called all in because it is irrelevant when we made our decision) we are not looking to win the tournament. We have so much equity here, it would be a sin to fold. Not to mention that if we want to win this tournament, we have to take risks like this. We are not looking to min cash, we are looking to win and if you fold here, we do not give ourselves a chance to win because these situations are excellent places to gain chips.

 

[bubonicplay]

LOL, bubonicplay, I'll put my ROI up against yours any day

Serious question, would you like to play HU?