$2 NLHE MTT Turbo: AKo turned into nuts flush, but busted

sedlacekj

sedlacekj

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Hero is in the BB position with AsKd and 10000 (100 BB) early in tourney. Blinds are 50/100
UTG-2 raise to 200 (min)
CO calls
Button calls
SB calls
Hero raises to 700
UTG-2 calls
CO calls
Button calls
SB calls

Flop 4d 3d Ad - gives me top pair and kicker along with a nuts flush draw

SB bets 100 (very small raise)
Hero raises 1959 (about 1/2 pot)
UTG-2 folds
CO folds
Button folds
SB calls

Turn 2d - I now have my nuts flush

SB checks
Hero bets 3750 - push for value
SB raises to 6506 all in
Hero calls

River Ah

SB show 5h5d wins the pot

Was there any place I could have played differently?
Was there anything (maybe the SB raise at the turn) that should have alerted me that I am should fold?
What are the odds the villain would have the one card that beats me instead of a random 5, random flush card, or other A?
I was thinking the villian had AanyQd or something like that.
 
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kkonicke

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There's no way I'm folding the nut flush here. Only way that guy has the 5 of diamond is if he has 55 with that diamond.
 
puzzlefish

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That's the low nut flush. The high nut flush includes the 5d and even 5d6d. I don't know where you play - online or live - but it really doesn't matter what the odds are of this happening. Very tiny, so long run you should be making money by calling in this spot.
 
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rmcneice

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That turn check re-raise indicates he also has a strong flush. With only the 5d beating you the call is a must.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Not a fun spot especially with his tiny flop bet indicating that he likely wanted to see a cheap turn, however he could do that with just the Qd as well and possibly overplay it.

I do expect to be shown the 5d here more often than not, but with the price we're getting I wouldn't fold here. NH.
 
sedlacekj

sedlacekj

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That's the low nut flush. The high nut flush includes the 5d and even 5d6d. I don't know where you play - online or live - but it really doesn't matter what the odds are of this happening. Very tiny, so long run you should be making money by calling in this spot.


No the Kd in my hand gives me nuts flush
5d gives straight flush
Agree with the rest. definitely calling here.
 
sedlacekj

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What are the odds the villain had the 5d instead of a random d or random 5? I know it is slim, but I don't know how to calculate it.
 
SuzdalDEcor

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Preflop is very small 3bet. River easy call. You almost always well be better
 
eetenor

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Bet sizing pre

Hero is in the BB position with AsKd and 10000 (100 BB) early in tourney. Blinds are 50/100
UTG-2 raise to 200 (min)
CO calls
Button calls
SB calls
Hero raises to 700
UTG-2 calls
CO calls
Button calls
SB calls

Flop 4d 3d Ad - gives me top pair and kicker along with a nuts flush draw

SB bets 100 (very small raise)
Hero raises 1959 (about 1/2 pot)
UTG-2 folds
CO folds
Button folds
SB calls

Turn 2d - I now have my nuts flush

SB checks
Hero bets 3750 - push for value
SB raises to 6506 all in
Hero calls

River Ah

SB show 5h5d wins the pot

Was there any place I could have played differently?
Was there anything (maybe the SB raise at the turn) that should have alerted me that I am should fold?
What are the odds the villain would have the one card that beats me instead of a random 5, random flush card, or other A?
I was thinking the villian had AanyQd or something like that.

Thank you for sharing.

By the time it gets to you in the BB the pot is 900 your raise to 700 making the pot 1600 the first player only had to call 500 3-1 odds.
A simple rule, make your raises 3x the raise plus 1x for every caller in a normal game where someone might fold when you have positon. 4x or more out of position in a game where players will fold.

Your raise would be 800+100x3= 1100 making the pot 2000 -900 to call again we see that still gives 2 to 1 odds for first caller with more callers to come probably.
Experiment with how large a bet it takes to get folds. If the bet becomes too large to be effective with AK always just call and use your post flop skills.

The why of just call AK BB if no one will fold to less than a shove.


AK vs AQ vs 55 vs j10ss vs 87cc 21.55% to win only if you can get to showdown out of the BB. Less if you fold to a shove by J10 on a J 42 flop.

:)
 
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rmcneice

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Most times in these tournaments at this blind level you can't buy a fold based on bet sizing. Especially when the opponent is holding a strong pair like 5's :)
 
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