$2 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: overpair meets action otf

[vox1er]

What are your thoughts about this spot on the flop please?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 8 players

UTG: 5,332 (178 bb)
UTG+1: 4,992 (166 bb)
MP: 5,008 (167 bb)
MP+1: 4,901 (163 bb)
CO: 4,781 (159 bb)
BU (Hero): 6,447 (215 bb)
SB: 5,123 (171 bb)
BB: 3,495 (117 bb)

Pre-Flop: (77) Hero is BTN with Q♦ Q♠
UTG raises to 90, 3 players fold, CO calls 90, Hero 3-bets to 385, 2 players fold, UTG calls 295, CO calls 295

Flop: (1,232) T♥ 4♣ 9♦ (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets 525, UTG raises to 1,400, CO folds

Hero?

 

[eetenor]

What are your thoughts about this spot on the flop please?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 8 players

UTG: 5,332 (178 bb)
UTG+1: 4,992 (166 bb)
MP: 5,008 (167 bb)
MP+1: 4,901 (163 bb)
CO: 4,781 (159 bb)
BU (Hero): 6,447 (215 bb)
SB: 5,123 (171 bb)
BB: 3,495 (117 bb)

Pre-Flop: (77) Hero is BTN with Q♦ Q♠
UTG raises to 90, 3 players fold, CO calls 90, Hero 3-bets to 385, 2 players fold, UTG calls 295, CO calls 295

Flop: (1,232) T♥ 4♣ 9♦ (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets 525, UTG raises to 1,400, CO folds

Hero?

Thank U 4 Posting

Does your action indicate you have a big hand?
An UTG villain check raises small why?
What range would villain put you on?

hands we are ahead of that may do this are JJ A10 J10 QJ 87 J9 J8 AK
How many of those are a raise from UTG preflop?
How many are check raises and not calls?


Pot is 3157- 875 for you to call.
How many bluffs bet using this sizing?

Have there been established bet sizes used so far? Is this consistent with value sizing or semi bluff or a weak do U have AK type of bet?

Is this villain sophisticated or straight forward?
Would this villain think A10 was a value check raise?

Is it common in your player pool to slow play AA KK 3 way OOP (out of position)?


Hope this helps

 

[Yanko57]

It depends on what you know of vilain and your image at the table, but without those info, I would say good fold.

Not a spot I want to risk here...

 

[fundiver199]

You beat JJ (but is that hand check-raising?) and lose to TT, 99 plus now and then slowplayed AA, KK. Given the price you have to call, if you want to play remotely correct poker, but you can find a fold, if he put out a big turn bet.

 

[greatgame230]

I would go with a 3 bet, the raise X3 of the UTG tells me that he has a good hand but to beat you, he needs to have the set, KK or AA the chances of that being so are not high, maybe it is wise to fold and move on in the tournament but unless the villain's information tells me otherwise I make a 3 bet here with all my stack

 

[SuzdalDEcor]

I dont know about your opponent. In most of cases you must fold on the flop.

 

[fundiver199]

I would go with a 3 bet, the raise X3 of the UTG tells me that he has a good hand but to beat you, he needs to have the set, KK or AA the chances of that being so are not high, maybe it is wise to fold and move on in the tournament but unless the villain's information tells me otherwise I make a 3 bet here with all my stack

If we 3-bet here and get it in, what worse hands are we getting action from? To be honest this does smell like a "I flopped a set and now I want to stack an overpair" line more than anything else. So while calling is the most GTO type line, I would lean more towards folding than jamming.

 

[ammje]

It depends on what information you have of the villain, if he is an aggressive player, I would push, but if he is a tight player, maybe I thinks of folding, I do not think he does raises with AT.
If you are an aggressive player he can make that move with QJs or KQ.
What did you do.

 

[Brawo]

Pot before your action was 257, so 3-bet in the amount of 385 is far so big.
Ok, you have a big stack = over 200BB and you could make overbetting, but with QQ you don' want to scare your opponents, right? you should want win as much as you can, right? 280 is preety good in my opinion.

Let's talk about flop in rainbow.
Very safe flop for you. Overpair QQ, you made standard c-bet.
Let's think about, why he wanted to throw you out of the hand?
If he would hold sets or overpair like AA, KK, JJ he would probably play just check-call and re-raise on river for value.
To be honest I don't understand that move. It is without sense for me - protect high pair with good kicker? only ATs from UTG has a sense (unless he is not a fish, but it is very likely) I would play check-call in your place.

 

[fundiver199]

Pot before your action was 257, so 3-bet in the amount of 385 is far so big.

I think, it was a perfect sizing, especially when we are this deep. No need to give two opponents great implied odds to come along with a setmine or suited connector and try to suck out on us. Or even just spike a better pair with their AX or KX.

 

[Jon Poker]

This isn't a really tough spot...we are super deep in a $2 game with an overpair. I am not making light of the situation at hand here but this is a clear call unless we have noted our opponent only raises virtually the nuts - which in this case would be a set. AT does this alot - JJ may do this on this flop, J8s with a backdoor flush draw may do this, QJs which we block heavily - tons of hands we beat and 3 we do not...9T, 99 and TT, if we are folding to this bet on the flop we are practically folding our entire range on this flop.

Are we ever folding Kings or Aces here? Then why would we consider folding Queens? This flop is relatively dry but these players are ALWAYS overplaying top pair and overpairs like JJ.

Like I said, I am just not folding QQ on this flop. We peel and look to pot control, check-call on the turn and evaluate all rivers. We are ahead of so much here we just cant fold. No need to go broke with 200bb but also no need to be folding such a strong hand on such a dry flop.

 

[fundiver199]

This isn't a really tough spot...we are super deep in a $2 game with an overpair. I am not making light of the situation at hand here but this is a clear call unless we have noted our opponent only raises virtually the nuts - which in this case would be a set. AT does this alot - JJ may do this on this flop, J8s with a backdoor flush draw may do this, QJs which we block heavily - tons of hands we beat and 3 we do not...9T, 99 and TT, if we are folding to this bet on the flop we are practically folding our entire range on this flop.

I think, its rather optimistic to assign him such a wide range, when he opened UTG at an 8-handed table and then called a large 3-bet out of position. Its way different from us opening, and then BB defending, because BB can have all the AT, KT, QT, JT in the world. But an UTG opener can typically not, especially not after calling a 3-bet out of position.

So even when we bet this flop, we are realistically trying to get value from exactly JJ and fold out hands like AK, AQ and small pocket pairs, that might otherwise draw out on us. Its almost a bet for protection more than value, and therefore its far from ideal, that we get raised.

We have to remember also, that this is a multiway pot. So if he is bluffing here, or raising light “for value”, he need to worry not only about Hero but also the guy in between. If I am the main Villain here, and missed the flop, I would certainly not see this as a great spot to make a move. I would just give up and cut my losses, and therefore I tend to give this check-raise quite a lot of credit.

I am probably still calling, because it fell weak-tight to bet-fold an overpair, but I think, this is a set a huge percentage of the time. Also if we call, the pot is huge already, and there is only a pot sized bet left. So its kind of unlikely, we will ever get to see a river. Most likely Villain will jam the turn, and we will have to fold to not pay off his set with our entire stack.

 

[Jon Poker]

I think, its rather optimistic to assign him such a wide range, when he opened UTG at an 8-handed table and then called a large 3-bet out of position. Its way different from us opening, and then BB defending, because BB can have all the AT, KT, QT, JT in the world. But an UTG opener can typically not, especially not after calling a 3-bet out of position.

So even when we bet this flop, we are realistically trying to get value from exactly JJ and fold out hands like AK, AQ and small pocket pairs, that might otherwise draw out on us. Its almost a bet for protection more than value, and therefore its far from ideal, that we get raised.

We have to remember also, that this is a multiway pot. So if he is bluffing here, or raising light “for value”, he need to worry not only about Hero but also the guy in between. If I am the main Villain here, and missed the flop, I would certainly not see this as a great spot to make a move. I would just give up and cut my losses, and therefore I tend to give this check-raise quite a lot of credit.

I am probably still calling, because it fell weak-tight to bet-fold an overpair, but I think, this is a set a huge percentage of the time. Also if we call, the pot is huge already, and there is only a pot sized bet left. So its kind of unlikely, we will ever get to see a river. Most likely Villain will jam the turn, and we will have to fold to not pay off his set with our entire stack.

I dont disagree with your analysis, its surely not incorrect. I just think in a $2 game the extremely competent players are far and few. As deep as stacks are UTG could absolutely open JTs or QJs where as of we all were around 30-40 BB deep the UTG range could certainly be much tighter. Again, it's a $2 game and not every player is playing their UTG ranges properly. A HUD could help us determine how strong their UTG range would truly be. That all being said on the BTN we have the widest range of all the players in the hand and we should also be cbetting a flop like this one 100% of the time after a 3bet - so a thinking player could use the check raise on the flop could be designed to target alot of stronger A hi hands cbetting as normal. Obviously JJ or a strong Twn is doing this for value while hands like 88 or 77 should be turning their holdings effectively into a bluff with a few backdoor draws. I don't think I assigned the villan any range that was all that wide but I think the same arguement can be said with your perspective assuming this is a set most of the time - if we are considering this to be a thinking player who does turn an underpair into a bluff he will likely understand how strong this looks coming from his position and given the fact this was a multi way pot. We surely do lose to 99 and TT and those hands would absolutely play it this way - but if we are to always assume this is a nutted play then we are not giving our opponents a balanced range and are over folding spots making ourselves very exploitable.


I also really like how even tho you break it down and tighten our villan up even moreso, that you still find the call on the flop. I think it's pretty well a must call sort of spot - if we do not make the call then we are just simply folding too much. I would also fold to a pretty large turn bet and I am calling anything less than 2/3 pot, checking back turn when checked to - folding to any 3 barrel river bets and calling any safe rivers if the turn goes check-check.

 

[fundiver199]

I dont disagree with your analysis, its surely not incorrect. I just think in a $2 game the extremely competent players are far and few.

That might be true, but you dont need to be extremely competent to play tight. 2$ tournaments can be compared to 5-10NL cash games, and limits like these see a lot of nitty regulars, who have learned to play tight, and who generally are very unbalanced with few if any bluffs in big pots.

So just because this is a 2$ tournament, I would not automatically assume, that this guy is some crazy fish. He could be of course, but he did nothing in the hand, that seem particularly fishy. He did not limp, he did not use crazy sizing, everything seems solid. HUD-data would be very usefull here of course to determine, which kind of player we are up against.

 

[Jon Poker]

Indeed a HUD would. Be that as it may - we do both agree that our hand is too strong to fold to a single flop raise.

 

[Ianmacca99]

A lot depends on previous from villan. His value hands are sets and slow played AA KK. There's not many two pair combinations you can expect. His bluffs are QJ KQ 87. Would he value bet a top pair top kicker hand ? I think it's unlikely. I think a lot your being shown a flopped set here unless you plan on going all the way with your queens it's a fold