$2.80 NLHE MTT Turbo: Is this a good push?

[tomasdig]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/12/1.4

This is a home game of 24 players, final table 5-handed. 3 players cash. Couldn't figure out how to work the hand converter, so here it goes.



Seat 2 is the button
Seat 2: Player2 ( 107382 ) - (32.90 / 12.33 / 8.73 / 385)
Seat 3: Player3 ( 27368 ) - (29.71 / 12.71 / 6.00 / 559)
Seat 5: Player5 ( 41488 ) - (26.90 / 15.87 / 12.28 / 200)
Seat 6: Hero ( 38771 )
Seat 9: Player9 ( 24991 ) - (25.26 / 11.13 / 2.52 / 486)
Player2 posts ante of [500 ].
Player3 posts ante of [500 ].
Player5 posts ante of [500 ].
Hero posts ante of [500 ].
Player9 posts ante of [500 ].
Player3 posts small blind [2000 ].
Player5 posts big blind [4000 ].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9s 9c ]
Hero raises [38271 ]

I'm 2nd in chips at this point, table has been quite calm for a while, especially since 6th place bust. Chip leader is usually a call station fish but has been somewhat cautious the last few rounds.

But I also have <10 BBs and feel like this is as good a hand as any to just go for it and try to double up and have a chance to win it.

Friend of mine was watching and said afterwards it's ICM suicide. I stand by my move but would really like your input. Thanks!

 

[DougPkrMonsta]

All-in quickly from any position five-handed and it isn't close.

If two other players had 2 big blinds you could think about it I guess (and still a shove would be fine most likely), but here you are only a few blinds ahead of the shortest stacks so ICM doesn't have much impact.

The blinds/antes are a big pickup if everyone folds and you have a hand that is very strong if you are called (especially by a loose player).

Good luck!

 

[fundiver199]

Even though this is a live poker hand, we can still use ICMizer to analyse it, so I did. With 3 places paying this is very similar to a 9 man SnG, so I just assume the usual 50/30/20 split of the price pool. I placed Hero UTG, because this is the worst case scenario. ICMizer has Hero jamming 22% of hands including any pocket pair.

Since this was a home game and the chip leader a bit of a calling station, its reasonable to assume, he might be calling wider, than he is supposed to. But ICMizer also has the answer for that. Chip leader is supposed to call with 7,5% of hands, and if we widen that to 16%, now Hero can only profitably jam 13% hands, and 22-44 becomes a fold. But 99 is still a massively profitable jam, and folding 99 would be a huge mistake.

So your friend is clearly wrong. People, who sit around and wait for aces or kings near the bubble, are giving up on a massive amount of EV, and often they end up bubbling anyway, because they blind out. When they are finally forced to go all in, they have like 1-2 blinds left, so even if they win the pot, they are still the short stack.

 

[Collin Moshman]

DougPkr is right when he says to shove, and props to Fundiver for ICMizing this spot and giving an exact answer!

As one small point to add: Sklansky's gap concept is extremely important in ICM spots. If the chip leader shoves into you, folding 99 could be correct depending on positions. But you can usually shove much wider than you can call -- even when you're mid-stacked with a lot of ICM.

 

[1player2]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/12/1.4

This is a home game of 24 players, final table 5-handed. 3 players cash. Couldn't figure out how to work the hand converter, so here it goes.



Seat 2 is the button
Seat 2: Player2 ( 107382 ) - (32.90 / 12.33 / 8.73 / 385)
Seat 3: Player3 ( 27368 ) - (29.71 / 12.71 / 6.00 / 559)
Seat 5: Player5 ( 41488 ) - (26.90 / 15.87 / 12.28 / 200)
Seat 6: Hero ( 38771 )
Seat 9: Player9 ( 24991 ) - (25.26 / 11.13 / 2.52 / 486)
Player2 posts ante of [500 ].
Player3 posts ante of [500 ].
Player5 posts ante of [500 ].
Hero posts ante of [500 ].
Player9 posts ante of [500 ].
Player3 posts small blind [2000 ].
Player5 posts big blind [4000 ].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9s 9c ]
Hero raises [38271 ]

I'm 2nd in chips at this point, table has been quite calm for a while, especially since 6th place bust. Chip leader is usually a call station fish but has been somewhat cautious the last few rounds.

But I also have <10 BBs and feel like this is as good a hand as any to just go for it and try to double up and have a chance to win it.

Friend of mine was watching and said afterwards it's ICM suicide. I stand by my move but would really like your input. Thanks!

Hello,


Shove or raise here. Icm suicide seems a little overboard with the stack sizes being so close from 2nd back. If the table was playing reserved I would try a raise instead of all in. But going all in isn't terrible.

 

[fundiver199]

Just as a small further comment it is of course also possible, that everyone are calling to wide. If I lock all the calling ranges in ICMizer at 10% but 16% for the chip leader, then Hero can only profitably jam 7,5% of hands. However interestingly jamming 99 actually becomes slightly more profitable, so 99 is such a strong hand, we dont even really care, what the other players do. If they call us to much, then 99 simply becomes more of a jam for value.

 

[tomasdig]

All-in quickly from any position five-handed and it isn't close.

If two other players had 2 big blinds you could think about it I guess (and still a shove would be fine most likely), but here you are only a few blinds ahead of the shortest stacks so ICM doesn't have much impact.

The blinds/antes are a big pickup if everyone folds and you have a hand that is very strong if you are called (especially by a loose player).

Good luck!

Exactly my thoughts, it's very close with the short stacks. Thank you!

 

[tomasdig]

Even though this is a live poker hand, we can still use ICMizer to analyse it, so I did. With 3 places paying this is very similar to a 9 man SnG, so I just assume the usual 50/30/20 split of the price pool. I placed Hero UTG, because this is the worst case scenario. ICMizer has Hero jamming 22% of hands including any pocket pair.

Since this was a home game and the chip leader a bit of a calling station, its reasonable to assume, he might be calling wider, than he is supposed to. But ICMizer also has the answer for that. Chip leader is supposed to call with 7,5% of hands, and if we widen that to 16%, now Hero can only profitably jam 13% hands, and 22-44 becomes a fold. But 99 is still a massively profitable jam, and folding 99 would be a huge mistake.

So your friend is clearly wrong. People, who sit around and wait for aces or kings near the bubble, are giving up on a massive amount of EV, and often they end up bubbling anyway, because they blind out. When they are finally forced to go all in, they have like 1-2 blinds left, so even if they win the pot, they are still the short stack.

We've been playing for a while now and I keep telling my friend he needs to push more often, especially in the turbo style of tournaments we are playing. Thanks for the ICM analysis, it's super useful to back this up.

As a side note, it's not actually a live game, I meant a Home Game in pokerstars but for actual cash.

 

[tomasdig]

DougPkr is right when he says to shove, and props to Fundiver for ICMizing this spot and giving an exact answer!

As one small point to add: Sklansky's gap concept is extremely important in ICM spots. If the chip leader shoves into you, folding 99 could be correct depending on positions. But you can usually shove much wider than you can call -- even when you're mid-stacked with a lot of ICM.

Also something I keep telling my friend about, although I had forgotten the actual name for it. Thanks!

 

[tomasdig]

Hello,


Shove or raise here. Icm suicide seems a little overboard with the stack sizes being so close from 2nd back. If the table was playing reserved I would try a raise instead of all in. But going all in isn't terrible.

Yup, I thought worst case scenario, it's close but still profitable.

 

[tomasdig]

Just as a small further comment it is of course also possible, that everyone are calling to wide. If I lock all the calling ranges in ICMizer at 10% but 16% for the chip leader, then Hero can only profitably jam 7,5% of hands. However interestingly jamming 99 actually becomes slightly more profitable, so 99 is such a strong hand, we dont even really care, what the other players do. If they call us to much, then 99 simply becomes more of a jam for value.

Super useful, thank you.

I actually got called by the chip leader with AK, he got the ace on the turn, and I rivered a 9 for salvation. Went ahead to win 1st place

 

[fundiver199]

As a side note, it's not actually a live game, I meant a Home Game in PokerStars but for actual cash.

Yeah I kind of figured that out after noticing the HUD-stats. And I also guess, if this was a poker evening in someones basement, you would be playing for a bit more than 2,8$. It still does not change the analysis though. All your friends have a somewhat high VPIP and high gap between VPIP and PFR, so I would definitely not recommending to jam as wide as the Nash equilibrium against them. But again its the marginal hands like 33 or QJo, we should fold, not a hand as strong as 99

 

[fundiver199]

Super useful, thank you.

I actually got called by the chip leader with AK, he got the ace on the turn, and I rivered a 9 for salvation. Went ahead to win 1st place

Then he was not even calling you wide. So it was just one of those spots, where you have to flip a coin for your tournament life, even though you are not thrilled about it. If you had jammed 44 and gotten called by J9o, thats the time, where you want to reconsider, if it was a good jam.