$2.75 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Facing TURN Jam with OVERPAIR

[theANMATOR]

This tourney is one of my daily evening events (2.75 buyin 2500gtd) I play nearly every day, unless I have to get up extra early in the morning. When I make the final table in this event - it is well past midnight, and earning a spot in the top 3 can be as late as 2-3am. But - I'm willing to make this sacrifice in missed sleep to earn 150x the buyin.

Late registration has been closed for about 30 minutes. We are roughly 20 places to ITM.

I have a top 15 stack with 55bb.

Blinds are 2k/4k ante ?

MP1 opens to 2.5x and I stupidly call with on the button. MP1 has 44bb total. I had a very aggressive loose player in the bb (43/15/23 over 250 hands) with a stack of 24bb and I was expecting/hoping he was going to do a silly min-raise - as he had been doing nearly every hand he played. He was showing up with marginal stuff every hand - J/T off, 9/7s, and A/8, so I wanted to give him this opportunity, so I could 4bet large and either take the pot down here, call any shove, or value bet large on a safe flop.

Unfortunately the aggro player folded this time. Amazing!

So I'm heads up with MP1 player who is a complete unknown, but since he is still alive in this event up to this point I'd say he is at least competent.

Pot size is 7bb. I have 52.5bb
The flop is

MP1 cbets 4bb - and I stupidly just call. My thinking at this time was this player might have top pair, but he is betting pretty strong so he also might have a flush draw, a set or 2 pair, and I wanted to re-evaluate on the river. I discounted K/J since I held KKs, and I had the Kd blocker - so I was not really concerned about a straight here.

Pot size is 15bb I have 48.5bb.

Turn is and MP1 shoves 37.5bb ??

To me this looked completely overly bluffy. Why overbet jam here with the stone nuts? To get a call from a player who can't fold a straight? Sure A/Q or A/8 or A/x of hearts isn't out of the question, neither is A/K with the Ace of hearts, nor overplayed two pair and sets. I just didn't have any read, other than - this felt like an overbet (bluff) to protect rather than a nutted hand. Shameful note - I never even considered 8/7 of hearts.
One small read - the opponent INSTA jammed this turn card. He didn't tank, or even let the timer run down 2 seconds. It was instant - when the card was flipped. This is just another reason - I felt as if this was not the nuts.
Me in that spot - with the nuts - I'm going to bet 8-9bb on the turn and then 15-20 on the river. Not jam the turn expecting my opponent to have just the right hand to call with.


I was certainly flummoxed with the opponents overbet here, however I'm pretty skeptical and folding here seems just wrong. Also for anyone unaware how I play - I don't care at all about min-cashing. I don't play to min-cash - I'd rather bust or make a deep run, so that is certainly my mind set - yes - that can be exploited, but from an unknown player - I am also unknown to him as well - so this is not something he knows about me, but this mind set is also why I'm hardly ever folding here.


I don't have ICMizer - is this a fold considering ICM?



What do ya'll think? Am I losing this pot with one card to come?


Thanks for all the input. PS I ran this hand through Equilab and realized the numbers, but I do not have that info on hand - at this time.

 

[theANMATOR]

I miss typed above A/x of diamonds rather than hearts.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I can understand your reason for getting tricky and just flat KK, but obviously 3-betting is the much safer option and it creates way less complicated spots later. So wont call this "stupidly", but overall making the simple play for value is probably better.

Flop
Very wet and coordinated board, and I dont think, this is an auto stack-off with an overpair. So as played I would also continue my passive line, just call again and look to play some later streets.

Turn
What a terrible spot. You improved to a straight, but its on a super obvious board, and you are facing a massive overbet. So even though nominally strong your hand is basically a bluff catcher. The nuts here is a straight flush of which Q8 and 87 are possible. The second nuts is a flush, and with K, J, T and 9 all spoken for, most of his flushes are A high and then maybe a few small suited connectors like 76 or 65.

But I tend to agree with you, that most people would not play an A high flush this fast and even less a straight flush, so I will weigh those combos down quite a bit. A small flush would make more sense, since it dont want to let another diamond roll off, and for the same reason AK would also make sense. You block AK, but he can still have 8 combos of it, which is actually more or less as many as his flush combos. So a better straight is a real concern here.

And then we come to the bluffs to which I would also include overplaying the same hand. Like a KQ with Q of diamonds type of thing. Or turning a hand with the naked A of diamonds into a wild bluff. If we think, he probably dont do this with an A high flush or a straight flush, then you are only drawing dead to 2 combos of AK with A of diamonds. So thats an argument for calling.

But on the other side you have only put in 6,5BB so far, its 37,5BB more to call, and is there really enough bluffs or wild overplay in his range to justify this? Even with 20% equity against some of his value range? In real time I would probably run my entire time bank down, hate the fact, I had not 3-bet pre, and end up mocking those cowboys.

 

[eetenor]

This tourney is one of my daily evening events (2.75 buyin 2500gtd) I play nearly every day, unless I have to get up extra early in the morning. When I make the final table in this event - it is well past midnight, and earning a spot in the top 3 can be as late as 2-3am. But - I'm willing to make this sacrifice in missed sleep to earn 150x the buyin.

Late registration has been closed for about 30 minutes. We are roughly 20 places to ITM.

I have a top 15 stack with 55bb.

Blinds are 2k/4k ante ?

MP1 opens to 2.5x and I stupidly call with on the button. MP1 has 44bb total. I had a very aggressive loose player in the bb (43/15/23 over 250 hands) with a stack of 24bb and I was expecting/hoping he was going to do a silly min-raise - as he had been doing nearly every hand he played. He was showing up with marginal stuff every hand - J/T off, 9/7s, and A/8, so I wanted to give him this opportunity, so I could 4bet large and either take the pot down here, call any shove, or value bet large on a safe flop.

Unfortunately the aggro player folded this time. Amazing!

So I'm heads up with MP1 player who is a complete unknown, but since he is still alive in this event up to this point I'd say he is at least competent.

Pot size is 7bb. I have 52.5bb
The flop is

MP1 cbets 4bb - and I stupidly just call. My thinking at this time was this player might have top pair, but he is betting pretty strong so he also might have a flush draw, a set or 2 pair, and I wanted to re-evaluate on the river. I discounted K/J since I held KKs, and I had the Kd blocker - so I was not really concerned about a straight here.

Pot size is 15bb I have 48.5bb.

Turn is and MP1 shoves 37.5bb ??

To me this looked completely overly bluffy. Why overbet jam here with the stone nuts? To get a call from a player who can't fold a straight? Sure A/Q or A/8 or A/x of hearts isn't out of the question, neither is A/K with the Ace of hearts, nor overplayed two pair and sets. I just didn't have any read, other than - this felt like an overbet (bluff) to protect rather than a nutted hand. Shameful note - I never even considered 8/7 of hearts.
One small read - the opponent INSTA jammed this turn card. He didn't tank, or even let the timer run down 2 seconds. It was instant - when the card was flipped. This is just another reason - I felt as if this was not the nuts.
Me in that spot - with the nuts - I'm going to bet 8-9bb on the turn and then 15-20 on the river. Not jam the turn expecting my opponent to have just the right hand to call with.


I was certainly flummoxed with the opponents overbet here, however I'm pretty skeptical and folding here seems just wrong. Also for anyone unaware how I play - I don't care at all about min-cashing. I don't play to min-cash - I'd rather bust or make a deep run, so that is certainly my mind set - yes - that can be exploited, but from an unknown player - I am also unknown to him as well - so this is not something he knows about me, but this mind set is also why I'm hardly ever folding here.


I don't have ICMizer - is this a fold considering ICM?



What do ya'll think? Am I losing this pot with one card to come?


Thanks for all the input. PS I ran this hand through Equilab and realized the numbers, but I do not have that info on hand - at this time.

Thank you for posting.

The aggro V you describe was only min raising so they were pot building early in the tournament not trying to steal so I would ignore them at this stage with AA KK QQ and play JJ TT 99 as call reraise or set mine -if no raise- if I was going to try to leverage the weak aggro.
In this spot with KK playing for the first V's stack is the goal. At this stage of tournaments we want to build and protect our stack which means playing more straight forwardly. We are fist pump raising one player to get heads-up in position at this stage of the tournament. The first V has 44ish BB and that would almost double our stack.

No way does this V fold to a raise so if we raise preflop and get a fold on the flop if they miss we will have added 8.5 bb or more to our stack so 15% increase a win at this stage of the tournament.

The 3 bet also changes the post flop dynamics as well. Making our reads just a little simpler.

Hope this helps

 

[theANMATOR]

Thanks for the always solid input fellas - I'm going to hold off til tomorrow to reveal - to allow some other members to join the discussion.

 

[theANMATOR]

Preflop
I can understand your reason for getting tricky and just flat KK, but obviously 3-betting is the much safer option and it creates way less complicated spots later. So wont call this "stupidly", but overall making the simple play for value is probably better.

Flop
Very wet and coordinated board, and I dont think, this is an auto stack-off with an overpair. So as played I would also continue my passive line, just call again and look to play some later streets.

Turn
What a terrible spot. You improved to a straight, but its on a super obvious board, and you are facing a massive overbet. So even though nominally strong your hand is basically a bluff catcher. The nuts here is a straight flush of which Q8 and 87 are possible. The second nuts is a flush, and with K, J, T and 9 all spoken for, most of his flushes are A high and then maybe a few small suited connectors like 76 or 65.

But I tend to agree with you, that most people would not play an A high flush this fast and even less a straight flush, so I will weigh those combos down quite a bit. A small flush would make more sense, since it dont want to let another diamond roll off, and for the same reason AK would also make sense. You block AK, but he can still have 8 combos of it, which is actually more or less as many as his flush combos. So a better straight is a real concern here.

And then we come to the bluffs to which I would also include overplaying the same hand. Like a KQ with Q of diamonds type of thing. Or turning a hand with the naked A of diamonds into a wild bluff. If we think, he probably dont do this with an A high flush or a straight flush, then you are only drawing dead to 2 combos of AK with A of diamonds. So thats an argument for calling.

But on the other side you have only put in 6,5BB so far, its 37,5BB more to call, and is there really enough bluffs or wild overplay in his range to justify this? Even with 20% equity against some of his value range? In real time I would probably run my entire time bank down, hate the fact, I had not 3-bet pre, and end up mocking those cowboys.

Thanks for your input FD - I know you use ICMizer often.
Taking ICM into account - would this be a tight, or possibly even reasonable fold?

Also please read the bottom of this comment

Thank you for posting.

The aggro V you describe was only min raising so they were pot building early in the tournament not trying to steal so I would ignore them at this stage with AA KK QQ and play JJ TT 99 as call reraise or set mine -if no raise- if I was going to try to leverage the weak aggro.
In this spot with KK playing for the first V's stack is the goal. At this stage of tournaments we want to build and protect our stack which means playing more straight forwardly. We are fist pump raising one player to get heads-up in position at this stage of the tournament. The first V has 44ish BB and that would almost double our stack.

No way does this V fold to a raise so if we raise preflop and get a fold on the flop if they miss we will have added 8.5 bb or more to our stack so 15% increase a win at this stage of the tournament.

The 3 bet also changes the post flop dynamics as well. Making our reads just a little simpler.

Hope this helps

Sorry for my limited details about the aggro in the blinds E. He was very active - probably playing 4-5 out of 8-9 hands per orbit. He had a large stack - obviously lucked into something early, but was getting handled by myself and the other reasonably solid players at this table. He had essentially gave away 80% of his stack in the past 2 orbits.
So - this was my consideration on why I wanted him to spew off to give me an opportunity to counter strike.

Agree totally with your assessment of the hand. I pretty much botched the entire hand by considering the fish in the bb.


So - after a short deliberation - I decided to make the call - I counted up just as many marginal made hands and hands that I was beating - TPTK, sets and flush draws, as there were hands that were beating me (flushes) and I pretty much discounted A/K since I had the cowboys.

Holy smokes - the villain turns over A/Q off with the Ace of diamonds.
And the river was the 8 of diamonds.

So - after losing this hand - I am certain - if I would have 3bet this clown preflop he would have jammed pre. So the outcome really doesn't matter. And even if he did not shove preflop - he is certainly calling/shoving on the flop and/or calling my shove on the turn.
Because this is what fishes do.

 

[fundiver199]

ICMizer is only for analysing preflop push-fold spots, so it does not really apply to a hand like this. It would tell you, that jamming your KK preflop is +EV, but you dont really need software to tell you that. And it cant tell you, if calling or raising to another size than all-in is more +EV than jamming.

With this description of the Villain calling it off was obviously the right play, and you just got unlucky. As you say, had you 3-bet pre, he would certainly not have folded, and neither should he. So apart from his weird turn line, the whole hand was just a bit of a set-up. Its always a little annoying to lose to someone, who overplay their hand and get lucky. But its part of the game, so just register for the next one and know, that in the long run you will do better than this guy

 

[eetenor]

Thanks for your input FD - I know you use ICMizer often.
Taking ICM into account - would this be a tight, or possibly even reasonable fold?

Also please read the bottom of this comment





Sorry for my limited details about the aggro in the blinds E. He was very active - probably playing 4-5 out of 8-9 hands per orbit. He had a large stack - obviously lucked into something early, but was getting handled by myself and the other reasonably solid players at this table. He had essentially gave away 80% of his stack in the past 2 orbits.
So - this was my consideration on why I wanted him to spew off to give me an opportunity to counter strike.

Agree totally with your assessment of the hand. I pretty much botched the entire hand by considering the fish in the bb.


So - after a short deliberation - I decided to make the call - I counted up just as many marginal made hands and hands that I was beating - TPTK, sets and flush draws, as there were hands that were beating me (flushes) and I pretty much discounted A/K since I had the cowboys.

Holy smokes - the villain turns over A/Q off with the Ace of diamonds.
And the river was the 8 of diamonds.

So - after losing t.his hand - I am certain - if I would have 3bet this clown preflop he would have jammed pre. So the outcome really doesn't matter. And even if he did not shove preflop - he is certainly calling/shoving on the flop and/or calling my shove on the turn.
Because this is what fishes do

Thank you for posting.

The extra data about the BB confirms that I want to just ignore them at this stage. We are close to the money with a player who has lost a big stack being weak aggro they will not play full range aggro in this spot often enough so we cannot rely on them to act.


"if I would have 3bet this clown preflop he would have jammed pre."

100% 3 bet is the play vs that V type with AA KK QQ AK We do not want a player that weak to find a fold post flop.
Vs that V type we make our 3 bet large 3.5x not 2.5x. If they are inelastic in their calling range we bet larger.

We can just exploit flat Everything Else if we know our V will shove.
So then the -let the BB raise play- works well to make an exploit fold of the EE range preflop for stack protection if the first V reraise shoves.
The flat -then shove ourselves play only works if the first V has folds - with our EE range.

With our skill advantage and stack size and exploitable V we do not need to take marginal equity spots and overfold the EE range for stacks preflop.

!!Not to min cash!!
to stack protect to use as a weapon vs the smaller stack weaker players and to cover the medium size stacks for high equity double up spots. With more skill we want to see more hands so we flat and fold to protect this stack size vs this V type.

The KK was a high equity spot preflop so that is when we want to get all-in if we can.

Hope this helps

 

[theANMATOR]

ICMizer is only for analysing preflop push-fold spots, so it does not really apply to a hand like this. It would tell you, that jamming your KK preflop is +EV, but you dont really need software to tell you that. And it cant tell you, if calling or raising to another size than all-in is more +EV than jamming.

With this description of the Villain calling it off was obviously the right play, and you just got unlucky. As you say, had you 3-bet pre, he would certainly not have folded, and neither should he. So apart from his weird turn line, the whole hand was just a bit of a set-up. Its always a little annoying to lose to someone, who overplay their hand and get lucky. But its part of the game, so just register for the next one and know, that in the long run you will do better than this guy

Thanks for the encouraging words FD - and also the detailed explanation about ICMizer - I was unaware it was only for preflop.

 

[StealTheButton]

I almost never slow play KK and AA. If I win a pot it very small. The only time I have done this with recently is with a reg when I limped in the small blind- this player knows I will limp with weak hands and always lead with strong hands.

I don't mind the flat call on that board with that flop. I would not entirely discount an hand like Ad Jc or Ad Qc, though I'm more worried about flush (not the nut flush) than a straight. I think you can comfortably fold here and live to fight again.

 

[theANMATOR]

Unfortunately I had a nicely written response and the browser window decided to update so I lost it all.

To say everything I had plainly - Thanks for all your replies gentlemen. I'm essentially flipping on the TURN with the villain as long as he does not hold the nut flush nor a straight flush.
I was 80% on the TURN and lost. Maybe LUCK will be on my side and my 80% hands will hold on the turn in the future. Odd - I have to consider luck when I have an 80% winning hand with one card to come. smh

Folding to live another day in this spot imo is a massive losing play, and one that does not propel a player to the final table. If my 80% hand holds up I'm definitely on the final table and earning meaningful cash - not meaningless 2x buy-in min cash or slightly more.

Even though I butchered this hand preflop and on the flop - I'm positive villain would have jammed pre to my 3bet, and if he didn't he would have certainly jammed on the flop to my meaningful cbet. So the outcome would have been the same regardless of how I played this hand. Villain is never folding and the runout is not changing.
BUT - I'm certainly going to be playing this hand differently going forward. And crossing my fingers that my 80% hands hold up on the TURN.

 

[Badday94]

By the way he played it I was almost certain you were ahead on the turn and by the fact that you posted this, I knew that he got you beat somehow either with a flush or by improving his set to a full house on the river. It's a classic, when you call knowing you are ahead but then the river has your soul crushed. We've all won or lost this way, what matters is that your play was correct.