$2.75 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Rebuy: 2500gtd Flopped boat counterfeited on the river

[theANMATOR]

$2.75 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Rebuy: 2500gtd Flopped boat counterfeited on the river

ACR $2.75 2500gtd

This hand is roughly within the first 10 minutes of the beginning of the event.

I had lost one hand when I called down turn/river with 2nd pair vs the same main villain in this hand. He slow played flopped bottom set and boated up on the river, but his line was wacky passive. He checked flop, bet small on the turn - and then again like under 30% on the river.

I have roughly 135bb
Villain has roughly 170bb

UTG min-opens (his stack is near starting stack 150bb)

Main villain 3bet to 6.5x in the CO
I decide to make the call in the bb with da ducks because we are deep and early.

UTG also calls.

Pot is 19.5bb

Flop

I check - looking to check-call - although I'm concerned vs two opponents one of them surely has an Ace - and could boat up. So I was considering a check-raise for protection/value.

UTG checks.
And CO also checks. ?? Slow playing trips or big pp without an Ace.

Turn

I'm pretty sure UTG didn't open A/7, and if CO is slow playing his trips here - he's about to give me back my chips, plus several of his, so I decide to lead out here 8.5bb.
UTG insta folds and CO makes the call.

River

Pot is 36.5bb, I'm confident in value betting now - however it is risky since any Ace has me beat, but I have a strong feeling CO is not slowplaying AA, nor a big Ace, I'm pretty certain he has TT-KK.

I bet 25bb, slightly under 3/4 pot. And CO essentially min-clicks it back to 56.59bb.
I have about 95bb remaining - and although villain has shown just recently he likes to slow play, besides the 3bet he has shown passivity as well, with his previous small bets, and this check call line. To me this looks like a bluff.

Fold?
Call?

Other actions on previous streets - feel free to input your opinions.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Even though you are in theory deep enough to setmine here (or at least its close), I dont like this call at all. First of all you are not closing action, and if UTG puts in a 4-bet, you will need to fold. So some percentage of the time you dont even get to see a flop, and then you just wasted 5,5 BB for nothing. In top of that you are also out of position, which makes it more difficult to get paid, and you are against very strong ranges, where set over set situations are a real concern especially on boards, that contain high cards like AT2 or KJ2.

Flop
This was pretty much a perfect flop for you, and I would go for a check-raise. If someone has AK or AQ, you are going to stack them now.

Turn
I agree, that you need to bet out now and try to get some value, since it does not seem like, they are all that strong and going to do the betting for you. And if someone sandbagged AK/AQ, they are probably going to raise you, which would be great.

River
This is obviously a terrible card, and I dont think, you can eliminate AX from Villains range. Sure if he had AK or AQ, you would likely have heard about it, but a standard 3-betting range also contain a lot of weak AX, that are relying on the A blocker. And if he has a hand like A5s, get called by two opponents and see this flop, there is really not much point in betting. He is either way ahead or way behind, and if he is ahead, he is not getting 3 streets of value from anything worse.

So this is in fact a situation, where its totally standard to play anything up to AT or even AJ the way, your opponent did. I am also not sure, he is calling again with anything worse than your hand, so I would check and then make a decision, if he bet. You did bet though, and then you face this min-click, which is just gross.

You say, it looks bluffy, but what is this guy bluffing with? There are no draws on this board, so for him to be bluffing, he would need to turn a made hand like TT-KK into a bluff. Also just try to consider, what your hand looks like to him, if he can hand read. You cold called a 3-bet out of the blinds, and then you bet turn and bet river on this runout. This really looks like, you have a hand like AK/AQ, which you did not want to 4-bet, or maybe you are occationally bluffing. So if he have TT-KK it makes no sense for him to raise. You are obviously not going to fold top boat, and if you are bluffing, he can just call and win at showdown.

The only hands, it makes sense for him to play this way, are those AX, that were not strong enough to go for 3 streets of value. So I would not have bet here in the first place, and as played I think, this is a very easy fold. Calling here is entitlement tilt to be honest with you. You flopped extremely strong but got counterfeited on the river. And when that happen, you just need to accept it and adjust.

 

[dallam]

The weakest pocket from the worst position, although it can improve to set, I probably better like to see here a fold too. From UTG is easy to catch a re-raise, and he could have strong hands there too. However it couldn't be considered as a huge mistake to call, folding is more optimal.
When someone flopped a set with aces, it could be easily checked to you.
Turn is an off card, almost half pot call can mean pocket pair, set, flush-draw now.
Seeing the river, we can realise that its possible that we are loosing, and we can avoid the big pots now.
Check is a strong move, and if we make a call still (in hope of pockets), its still not that big difference in the MTT for us. I would suggest if you raise not to raise that big, simply you don't have to. Any re-raise here will be a better boat.

 

[theANMATOR]

Preflop
Even though you are in theory deep enough to setmine here (or at least its close), I dont like this call at all. First of all you are not closing action, and if UTG puts in a 4-bet, you will need to fold. So some percentage of the time you dont even get to see a flop, and then you just wasted 5,5 BB for nothing. In top of that you are also out of position, which makes it more difficult to get paid, and you are against very strong ranges, where set over set situations are a real concern especially on boards, that contain high cards like AT2 or KJ2.

Flop
This was pretty much a perfect flop for you, and I would go for a check-raise. If someone has AK or AQ, you are going to stack them now.

Turn
I agree, that you need to bet out now and try to get some value, since it does not seem like, they are all that strong and going to do the betting for you. And if someone sandbagged AK/AQ, they are probably going to raise you, which would be great.

River
This is obviously a terrible card, and I dont think, you can eliminate AX from Villains range. Sure if he had AK or AQ, you would likely have heard about it, but a standard 3-betting range also contain a lot of weak AX, that are relying on the A blocker. And if he has a hand like A5s, get called by two opponents and see this flop, there is really not much point in betting. He is either way ahead or way behind, and if he is ahead, he is not getting 3 streets of value from anything worse.

So this is in fact a situation, where its totally standard to play anything up to AT or even AJ the way, your opponent did. I am also not sure, he is calling again with anything worse than your hand, so I would check and then make a decision, if he bet. You did bet though, and then you face this min-click, which is just gross.

You say, it looks bluffy, but what is this guy bluffing with? There are no draws on this board, so for him to be bluffing, he would need to turn a made hand like TT-KK into a bluff. Also just try to consider, what your hand looks like to him, if he can hand read. You cold called a 3-bet out of the blinds, and then you bet turn and bet river on this runout. This really looks like, you have a hand like AK/AQ, which you did not want to 4-bet, or maybe you are occationally bluffing. So if he have TT-KK it makes no sense for him to raise. You are obviously not going to fold top boat, and if you are bluffing, he can just call and win at showdown.

The only hands, it makes sense for him to play this way, are those AX, that were not strong enough to go for 3 streets of value. So I would not have bet here in the first place, and as played I think, this is a very easy fold. Calling here is entitlement tilt to be honest with you. You flopped extremely strong but got counterfeited on the river. And when that happen, you just need to accept it and adjust.

The weakest pocket from the worst position, although it can improve to set, I probably better like to see here a fold too. From UTG is easy to catch a re-raise, and he could have strong hands there too. However it couldn't be considered as a huge mistake to call, folding is more optimal.
When someone flopped a set with aces, it could be easily checked to you.
Turn is an off card, almost half pot call can mean pocket pair, set, flush-draw now.
Seeing the river, we can realise that its possible that we are loosing, and we can avoid the big pots now.
Check is a strong move, and if we make a call still (in hope of pockets), its still not that big difference in the MTT for us. I would suggest if you raise not to raise that big, simply you don't have to. Any re-raise here will be a better boat.

Yeah - thank you guys for the input - I knew I totally mangled this hand from the start - not a good call pre oop - not closing action. Thanks for that reminder.
I'm not opposed to making this call in this spot with a playable hand though - I'm not scared to play post flop, I feel like it is one of my strengths vs the field.

FD/dallam what is your calling range in this specific spot when their is a EP min-open and a modest LP 3bet?


The bet on the river was also terrible - possibly due to me realizing I shouldn't even be in this hand in the first place, missing a prime check-raise opportunity on the flop, betting weak on the turn - and then getting drawn out on - on the river. Some kind of inner secret tilt - not frustrated in any way - just not thinking - lol.


I agree with all your points FD/dallam - but I was skeptical about villains line - the little devil voice in me was saying villain was repping the Ace - but didn't have it.

I made the call - fully expecting the opponent to show up with any of the Aces that are not out of line for 3betting.

He turns over KKs.

 

[fundiver199]

FD/dallam what is your calling range in this specific spot when their is a EP min-open and a modest LP 3bet?

I probably dont have one. If its not good enough to 4-bet, I just fold.

He turns over KKs.

Ok thats cool, but its also one of those, where hand reading did not work, because the opponent did something totally weird. I have no idea, what this guy was thinking, but probably something along the lines of "hmm I cant call this bet, but if I raise, maybe he will fold". But as I said already, he already beat the hands, you fold, so this is a terrible raise by him

 

[dallam]

FD/dallam what is your calling range in this specific spot when their is a EP min-open and a modest LP 3bet?


He turns over KKs.

Sorry for the very late answer.
To tell my thoughts here I have to be long.
When someone push to 6.5bbs it closes his range to great hands. Theres no bluff when someone pump up the pot from that position, he can handle probably with a cbet as well. His range is somewhere 99-AA, AK, AQ, AJs, A10s, A9s, KQ, QJs or J10s. Maybe for Q10s, 109s, 88, Axs. All of these hands have at least 50% pre. Not mentioning UTG who able to push even more here.
I think if your hand is in his range what I mentioned, you can call him. So the worst pocket in my hand is 88 here, and it can block some like A9s or J10s, 109s maybe QJ.
Making a reraise: we can push it more in certain situations. As Aces and Kings both can appear, I would just call up to QQ and flop would tell next steps. AK, AA, KK can worth further push and almost everytime it will be called at this level, and from this point maybe you not having the best position in 1vs1 either, but you can controll the action to a very much possible big pot-win.
You can make calls here with low pockets only if you have notes at least one of them, which indicate you that you can outplay him/her when it comes to that point.

Very bad all-in at this point, if he really thinks you are bluffing, the only option here is a call, as his effective stack would result a call either way from you.

Good luck for you

 

[fundiver199]

I am also not sure, he is calling again with anything worse than your hand.

Looking at the hand again this statement is probably a little to definitive. I do think, some players will hero call with a hand like KK, especially if you size down a little. However for us to be betting for value, we need to be good more than 50% of the time when called. And depending on, how he structure his range, its probably pretty much just as likely, he has a weak AX hand as a pocket pair.

So its very thin, and the next problem is, that if he has AX, he is never going to just call. He is always going to raise, since there is really no reason not to, when he essentially have the nuts. He only lose to one combo of 77, and from his perspective thats not enough to refrain from raising, even though it will mostly be a chopped pot, when he get action.

So if you bet here, you need to be prepared to bet-fold, which then open up a bluffing opportunity for him. Or if you bet-call, as in fact you did, you lose more, when he has AX, than you win, when he has a pocket pair. So I still think, the river bet is to thin, and I beleive the main analytical error is your assumption, he cant have AX and play it this way. Finally if you are going for thin value on the river, you need to use small sizing, not more than half pot, as you did here.

 

[theANMATOR]

Looking at the hand again this statement is probably a little to definitive. I do think, some players will hero call with a hand like KK, especially if you size down a little. However for us to be betting for value, we need to be good more than 50% of the time when called. And depending on, how he structure his range, its probably pretty much just as likely, he has a weak AX hand as a pocket pair.

So its very thin, and the next problem is, that if he has AX, he is never going to just call. He is always going to raise, since there is really no reason not to, when he essentially have the nuts. He only lose to one combo of 77, and from his perspective thats not enough to refrain from raising, even though it will mostly be a chopped pot, when he get action.

So if you bet here, you need to be prepared to bet-fold, which then open up a bluffing opportunity for him. Or if you bet-call, as in fact you did, you lose more, when he has AX, than you win, when he has a pocket pair. So I still think, the river bet is to thin, and I beleive the main analytical error is your assumption, he cant have AX and play it this way. Finally if you are going for thin value on the river, you need to use small sizing, not more than half pot, as you did here.

Thanks for the additional info FD.
Yeah - I got lucky - and I was totally expecting to pay him off with his Ax hand.

My question above was related to preflop - which I think you answered.