$2.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: Does villain have enough bluffs to make this a call?

T

tomasdig

Enthusiast
Joined
Sep 26, 2020
Total posts
33
Hey guys. This is actually a hand I was not involved in, but I thought the spot on the river for one of the particular villains (Hero for this hand) was worth a look.

This is the second hand on the tournament, we don't have any information on the opponents.


pokerstars - 10/20 Ante 3 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

CO: 1,497 (74.9 bb)
BTN: 1,487 (74.4 bb)
SB: 1,477 (73.9 bb)
tomasdig (BB): 1,497 (74.9 bb)
UTG: 1,614 (80.7 bb)
UTG+1: 1,497 (74.9 bb)
MP: 1,437 (71.9 bb)
Hero: 1,497 (74.9 bb)
MP+2: 1,497 (74.9 bb)

9 players post ante of 3, SB posts 10, Hero posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 57) Hero has :7s4: :7h4:
fold, UTG+1 raises to 100, fold, Hero calls 100, 4 folds, tomasdig folds

Flop: (257, 2 players) :3d4: :jc4: :4d4:
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 128, UTG+1 calls 128

Turn: (513, 2 players) :ks4:
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: (513, 2 players) :4h4:
UTG+1 bets 257, Hero ???

I think the call pre is fine, the bet on the flop and the check behind on the turn also OK.

How often do you think villain is bluffing here to justify a 3:1 call? In my experience, very few, at least in these stakes.
 
3

300HPGOD

Legend
Joined
Feb 13, 2018
Total posts
1,178
Awards
10
I dont like the hero calling 5x here pre trying to set mine. I know we get the 15 to 1 ratio that many say is needed to set mine but you will not always get all the villains stack when you do hit a set and also will be probably folding on the flop a lot as well when the flop comes down something unpleasant. I would also be pot controlling this hand if I was hero as this is early playing against an unknown so I would actually be checking the flop a lot. I know that allows draws to see it for free along with overs but I would not want to play a big pot here in heros shoes (wouldnt even be in the hand myself but Im nitty).

On to the question about the river. I doubt the villain has Jx here as they should be betting it with the 2 diamonds on the board. They could have something like KQ which would float the bet on the flop with two overs and then hit on the turn hoping to check raise. That might explain their check on the turn. I think villain could have Kx, some Ax that they are bluffing or some crazy air hand. I think the Ax and air hands are far outweighed by made hands. There is some value in calling here to see what villain actually has but not sure that makes up for the chips we lose when we are wrong. I would make a somewhat tight fold here but the key to me is to avoid these spots by not calling large raises with mid pairs. Either 3 bet them or fold them unless we are over 100BB deep.
 
7CardKillR

7CardKillR

Rock Star
Joined
Mar 22, 2020
Total posts
151
:ad4: :kd4: seems to be a likely candidate. as does :ad4: :jd4: I wouldn't mind calling a smallish riv bet if Vill had shown an ability to bluff. But vs Golbal Micro players you can Meh Fold id think
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
10,306
Awards
1
Its difficult to say, how often the opponent is bluffing the river, because his preflop sizing is so non-standard for an online tournament. Is he opening to 5BB, because he has a great hand and wants to get paid? Or is he doing it for fun, because he is a fish? If the large preflop sizing is for value, he might not even have any hands in his range, that Hero still beat after the K comes on the turn. And for this reason I would learn towards a fold here. I would also not even have gotten involved in the first place, because as 300HPGOD say, this was not a good spot for setming.
 
S

Sidetracked

Legend
Joined
Jun 30, 2016
Total posts
1,294
Awards
2
Starting stacks are pretty shallow for set mining vs a 5x pf raise. But as played, with the 2 overcards now on the board, I think a fold would be best on the river.
 
jaworek1405

jaworek1405

Legend
Joined
Jul 2, 2013
Total posts
1,003
Awards
8
Hello, I don't agree with some thing like some guys. My tactic in situation like this: I think we are at the beginning of the tournament and we are deep, so I think we can play a little loose and play this pocket 77 for setmining. When opponent check on the flop, if I good see hero is in position. For me check on the flop from the opponent seems on a weakness. I suppose that he has usually a two over cards, I think that bet on the flop from the hero can be good, but if we want to win this hand we could bet on the turn the second bet for value for 50% and take a check on the river. If we bet on the turn second bet, I don't suppose that opponent will bluff you on the river, I suppose that he will play check on the river. As played on the river - I fold this pocket 77, because on the board are two over cards. GL :)
 
ZenGreen

ZenGreen

Visionary
Joined
Mar 4, 2018
Total posts
607
UTG+1 play is atrocious, 5x raise, checks flop, checks turn, 1/2 river.

but if we are checking great turns to bluff at, we will never know .. also remember you must bet river if you bet turn.....



Does 77 really care if he folds Jx here but as played I fold here and scold myself for something.
 
Last edited:
Top