This is a discussion on $2.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: Does villain have enough bluffs to make this a call? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Hey guys. This is actually a hand I was not involved in, but I thought the spot on the river for one of the particular
I dont like the hero calling 5x here pre trying to set mine. I know we get the 15 to 1 ratio that many say is needed to set mine but you will not always get all the villains stack when you do hit a set and also will be probably folding on the flop a lot as well when the flop comes down something unpleasant. I would also be pot controlling this hand if I was hero as this is early playing against an unknown so I would actually be checking the flop a lot. I know that allows draws to see it for free along with overs but I would not want to play a big pot here in heros shoes (wouldnt even be in the hand myself but Im nitty).
On to the question about the river. I doubt the villain has Jx here as they should be betting it with the 2 diamonds on the board. They could have something like KQ which would float the bet on the flop with two overs and then hit on the turn hoping to check raise. That might explain their check on the turn. I think villain could have Kx, some Ax that they are bluffing or some crazy air hand. I think the Ax and air hands are far outweighed by made hands. There is some value in calling here to see what villain actually has but not sure that makes up for the chips we lose when we are wrong. I would make a somewhat tight fold here but the key to me is to avoid these spots by not calling large raises with mid pairs. Either 3 bet them or fold them unless we are over 100BB deep.
Its difficult to say, how often the opponent is bluffing the river, because his preflop sizing is so non-standard for an online tournament. Is he opening to 5BB, because he has a great hand and wants to get paid? Or is he doing it for fun, because he is a fish? If the large preflop sizing is for value, he might not even have any hands in his range, that Hero still beat after the K comes on the turn. And for this reason I would learn towards a fold here. I would also not even have gotten involved in the first place, because as 300HPGOD say, this was not a good spot for setming.
re: Poker & $2.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: Does villain have enough bluffs to make this a call?
Hello, I don't agree with some thing like some guys. My tactic in situation like this: I think we are at the beginning of the tournament and we are deep, so I think we can play a little loose and play this pocket 77 for setmining. When opponent check on the flop, if I good see hero is in position. For me check on the flop from the opponent seems on a weakness. I suppose that he has usually a two over cards, I think that bet on the flop from the hero can be good, but if we want to win this hand we could bet on the turn the second bet for value for 50% and take a check on the river. If we bet on the turn second bet, I don't suppose that opponent will bluff you on the river, I suppose that he will play check on the river. As played on the river - I fold this pocket 77, because on the board are two over cards. GL