$2.50 NLHE MTT Turbo:Deep-stacked bluff failed

[f1nee]

I was curious what you think about this spot. Its a $2.50 180man SNG and I've accumulated a ridiculous amount of chips. Roughly 80 left with 27 being paid, so its ChipEV.

SB: 30 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, hands: 23)
Hero (BB): 268.98 BB
UTG: 24.74 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
UTG+1: 30.56 BB (VPIP: 10.26, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
MP: 61.13 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
MP+1: 154.39 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
MP+2: 64.07 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 6)
CO: 9.99 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 2.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
BTN: 32.32 BB (VPIP: 5.88, PFR: 5.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Q♣ J♦

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (5.4 BB, 2 players) 4♠ 2♠ 9♦
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 8.7 BB, MP+1 calls 5.7 BB

Turn: (22.8 BB, 2 players) A♥
Hero bets 17.1 BB, MP+1 calls 17.1 BB

River: (57 BB, 2 players) 5♠
Hero bets 48 BB, MP+1 raises to 126.49 BB and is all-in, fold,


My thoughts:

Preflop: Don't think theres anything to add here - solid hand, solid odds.

Flop: The board comes 4♠ 2♠ 9♦ and shouldn't hit villains range too hard, but more our BB range. Obviously his tight PFR so far limits him to enough overpairs, but also A-high hands. My assumption is that player tend to over c-bet on such boards and he has shown to be capable so far to c-bet wider.

Albeit we have a lot of better hands to go for a bluff raise here (53s, A3s, 56s, 63s, 78s maybe) that have more equity and don't block his overpairs such as QJo, I elected to go for a bluff-raise for 8.7bb with the expectation to fold out some of his Ax with other broadways. Think I should maybe go bigger here (to like 10bb or something), to also put pressure on wheel-draws he might decide to float.

He calls.

Turn: Turn brings the A♥ and I like that card to barrel, since it puts more pressure on his PPs (TT-KK) and I only expect his Axs wheel-draws and flush-draws to have improved here. I would maybe size it down to 14-15bb, since we most likely accomplish the same thing. Its also a card that we would like to continue on with our other better bluffing hands that turned gutshots or made straights.

He calls (I assume still with his PPs between 9 - A).

River: With the 5♠ I think we have one of the best cards here to make him fold his PPs, which I'm targeting (any 3x from us makes a straight and the flush got there). However, I think my 48bb is way too huge and I wouldn't even bet it this size with my made straights/flushes since he could have better Flushes now. So I would like to size it down to 26-28bb.

I bet and after his jam I'm obviously folding.

What do you think?

 

[RocwX]

I think you could 3-bet preflop since you have a decent hand and a really deep stack. Also, the other player chose to go with the min raise so you could apply some pressure there. On the flop I think you played it well, but you should put a flush draw in the other player's range. I agree with how you played the turn. On the river, I would check/fold. I can't think of many hands that would call flop and turn and could fold this river. If they were going for a flush, they hit it. If they were going for a straight, they hit it. Maybe some Ax or pocket pairs, but the player has a deep stack so you would have to bet big to make those hands fold and if they end up having a big hand you would get reraised and forced to fold (basically what happened).

 

[f1nee]

I think you could 3-bet preflop since you have a decent hand and a really deep stack. Also, the other player chose to go with the min raise so you could apply some pressure there.

I haven't studied deep-stack poker that much, but seeing that villain apparently distinguishes between limping with weaker hands and raising stronger hands (6 PRF), I'd rather take my odds with QJo here against his stronger range because I suspect less fold equity when he raises and don't want to size up the pot OOP with such a hand.

On the river, I would check/fold. I can't think of many hands that would call flop and turn and could fold this river. If they were going for a flush, they hit it. If they were going for a straight, they hit it. Maybe some Ax or pocket pairs, but the player has a deep stack so you would have to bet big to make those hands fold and if they end up having a big hand you would get reraised and forced to fold (basically what happened).

Those "some pocket pairs" and middling pairs make a pretty good chunk of his range by the river according to my assumption. Let me show you the ranges I came up with.

 

[f1nee]

Assumptions for villains ranges

PreFlop
22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KQo (16.44%)

Flop after getting raised
55+, T9s, 98s, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, Ad5d, As5s, As4s, Ad3d, As3s, As2s (6.64%)

Turn after calling
TT+, T9s, 98s, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, Ad5d, As5s, As4s, Ad3d, As3s, As2s (4.37%)

River what he calls/raises
AA, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, Ad5d, As5s, As4s, Ad3d, As3s, As2s (1.96%)

We could therefore make fold KK-TT, T9s, 98s, which is 2.41% and therefore makes up 57% of his entire range that would fold.

 

[Ryan Laplante]

I like your thought process as approach and agree with your conclusion, but id size like 35bb.

 

[Gaviria8]

The key is opponent PFR: 6.25 that your opponent has. You have no reason to 3bet preflop with QJ vs that guy, He's not going anywhere. Your 3bet in that flop was good bluff, but the turn is the worst card you could see, that donk bet in the turn was terrible, a guy with 6,25% PFR and raising in Middle Position is hard to not look at least pocket pair, but he's most probably to have an AT+ in low limits is hard to bluff because the players don't fold usually, He could has 77,88,TT and He's not folding. I think you shouldn't bet that turn, I would check/fold depending of the size of his bet.

 

[Flight777sem]

I’d give it up on that turn, A is the worst card for you and no sense of keepin fire there.

 

[rikoberto]

Assumptions for villains ranges

PreFlop
22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KQo (16.44%)

Flop after getting raised
55+, T9s, 98s, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, Ad5d, As5s, As4s, Ad3d, As3s, As2s (6.64%)

Turn after calling
TT+, T9s, 98s, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, Ad5d, As5s, As4s, Ad3d, As3s, As2s (4.37%)

River what he calls/raises
AA, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, Ad5d, As5s, As4s, Ad3d, As3s, As2s (1.96%)

We could therefore make fold KK-TT, T9s, 98s, which is 2.41% and therefore makes up 57% of his entire range that would fold.

Hello f1nee.As it happens to grind a lot this specific format in pokerstars(have around 5.6k games) i will say some (unorganized) thoughts about this hand.
So preflop its kinda standard call.From flop i start to disagree with your play and i will explain why:Its not that i dont like you check/raise(even i would prefer to do it with spade blocker on Q,or J) but against that kind of players who usually limp,my experience says that whenever they raise preflop they have a strong range that rarely quit hand till river,and sometimes do some akward calls even at river with(3rd pair etc).So against that players i would flat most of my range and raise/exploit them mostly for value..
I dont say that we dont bluff them,but we do with more nutted range.So I wouldnt build the pot with marginal hand which doesnt have equity to be nutted in later streets(you luck straight draws,flushdraws)Also both you are very deep,and far away from money,so its not that big point to steal his chips as you are far away from ICM spots and you cant abuse him as much as you would like.
You enter in a leveling war with someone which simply probably dont understand ranges and dont fold enough.Against a thinking reg,you can force him fold,being chipleader and put him in difficult spot,making him calls you with top of his range,but obviously your villain seems not to be inside this category..Anyway turn comes an Ace,mostly hitting his opening range and not yours(which ur defend BB range is around 35-40%)..Definately you can flat many Ax+ hands preflop,but check/raising flop and bet turn reduce them to AspadesX+,A2-A5,Some 2 pair hands like A9,flushdraws,gutshots,straights..
You can have ofc some few strong hands like flopped 2 pairs or sets.You barell and villain calls..Villain never folds Ax+ and flushdraws and definately sets.River comes a spade and without any blocker you 3ple barell..
So you target mainly pocket pairs like 66-88(18combos) to fold..TT is questionable if they call turn/fold river and lets go to premium pairs:with QJo in your hand u block 3 of each pairs.so 6 combos for JJ-QQ overall.Experience says that most of times they find click button with QQ-KK as recreationals ''marry'' that hands..,Any top pair will call and Ace of spades will snap you because of blocker.Definately completing flush will raise you for value,So in general i also like your given play and the mental approach of the hand,you play the BB range not your hand and its completely fine BUT i think its really unecessary in that tournament vs that kind of guys..As conclusion,personally as u played so aggresively that hand,i would fold the river most of my range but they dont fold enough