$2.50 NLHE MTT: paired turn board facing 2 barrels

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RamdeeBen

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What's your thoughts here?

Villian is;

54/38 - 26


This is a $1.50 PL rebuy.

So;not to many hands on villian but he oftens flats 3bets & he does like playing a ton of hands and has shown down garbage before.

This interesting turncard kinda makes it's one of those spots where he can easily have the FH here but I guess it's possible he has a Jx hand - however..unlikely bets the river with a Jx hand. His river sizing looks so much like a value looking bet size too (He's deffo not capable of making these bet sizes to look "strong")..I'm intrigued. I'm effectively 25 bb deep.

Do we just call/fold the river?

As played though; what about all streets

pokerstars Pot-Limit Hold'em, 1.1 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

MP (t31810)
CO (t41296)
Button (t89400)
Hero (SB) (t19027)
BB (t32769)
UTG (t51121)

Hero's M: 15.86

Preflop: Hero is SB with A
diamond.gif
, K
diamond.gif

UTG bets t1600, 3 folds, Hero raises to t3250, 1 fold, UTG calls t1650

Flop: (t7300) 10
club.gif
, Q
diamond.gif
, J
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets t3200, UTG calls t3200

Turn: (t13700) J
club.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t4800, Hero calls t4800

River: (t23300) 3
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t7777, Hero ?
 
Lucothefish

Lucothefish

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I'm no PL player, but...

If you'd 3bet bigger pre and bet bigger on the flop you wouldn't even have a tricky river decision. Value bet the crap out of this guy.

Putting in over half your stack just to fold river seems really bad, I think you have to call as played.
 
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RamdeeBen

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Effective stack size is 23bb, not 100 ;)

Last thing I wanna do, is bet bigger and fold out his hands! If I 3bet bigger pre and post flop, we only achieve one thing. Folds from worse hands.

Want to get stacks in by river in general; so when effective stack sizes are like this, we only need to be better smaller not bigger & betting under half pot on each street enables us to get a nice river shove in and calls from worse hands.
 
Lucothefish

Lucothefish

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Effective stack size is 23bb, not 100 ;)

Last thing I wanna do, is bet bigger and fold out his hands! If I 3bet bigger pre and post flop, we only achieve one thing. Folds from worse hands.

Want to get stacks in by river in general; so when effective stack sizes are like this, we only need to be better smaller not bigger & betting under half pot on each street enables us to get a nice river shove in and calls from worse hands.

Umm, what?

Villian is;

54/38 - 26

...So;not to many hands on villian but he oftens flats 3bets & he does like playing a ton of hands and has shown down garbage before.

Does not compute. How can he 'fold all worse' if he's shown down garbage before? Am I missing something here? If he often flats 3bets why are you scared of a fold?

You're approx. 4,000 miles ahead of his 3bet calling range pre and you have the absolute best hand OTF. Guy is a 54/38 idiot who is almost never folding this flop, get your stack in by the turn, not river
 
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RamdeeBen

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Stack size is 23bb effective..betting more at this stage, is pointless and only achieves one thing, FOLDS from worse hands, from worse players. We don't want folds pre/or post flop and we certainly don't want to just get stacks in on turns when he can fold out worse hands, look how wet the board is lol.

Just because he's shown down garbage before, does not mean he never folds, I never said that. I said he's shown down garbage before.

Yeah, it seems you're missing a big point. I'm not sure what you think I mean with that statement but it seems you have interpreted my comment about him flatting 3bets and showing down garbage means he's happy to stack off 25 bb with any sort of hand on any sort of board lol...not the case.

There's zero point in betting more when I know he calls down light and building a pot makes an easy shove on the river,s like 50% of hands, it doesn't mean he's connected all the time with this board meaning we can shove it. There is little to no point in betting big with the nuts as we miss value when he does occasionally fold from much worse hands.., lots of pairs/draws al sorts of combo hands that will fold if we go nuts.
 
Lucothefish

Lucothefish

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I've seen your posts and even met you at the table so I know you're good, but clearly we aren't going to see eye to eye ITT. Suffice to say I bet my good hands hard in $1.50 donkaments and don't get many folds, especially not on this type of board vs this type of fish when he has you 2.5x covered.

I appreciate what you're saying about being shallow and sizing up for the river but I stand by my 'value bet bigger' line, particularly preflop.

I don't think either approach is -EV so it's all about which one maximises EV vs this villain's range. I think we will have to agree to disagree here ram, so unless you want to continue I'll just leave you to your thread now.
 
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JohnBoyWWFC

JohnBoyWWFC

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I 3b to like 3999 pre, bet 5k on flop and jam turn. You flopped the nuts, if he made a boat then that can't be helped, I'm never folding.
 
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doomasiggy

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barrell turn, shove river.

as played call.
 
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