$2.5 NLHE MTT Turbo: Interesting hand vs reg

[rikoberto]

Hello guys..Long time i didnt post any hand,so its about time to be more active in this respectfull forum.So i post the following hand and after this,my comment of my play..I would like much to see ur point of you

PokerStars - 15/30 Ante 4 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 54.13 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 12.46, 3Bet Preflop: 4.67, hands: 315)
CO: 53.43 BB (VPIP: 14.12, PFR: 4.70, 3Bet Preflop: 3.81, Hands: 264)
BTN: 50.6 BB (VPIP: 20.87, PFR: 17.44, 3Bet Preflop: 8.64, Hands: 2,209)
SB: 47.37 BB (VPIP: 26.06, PFR: 19.16, 3Bet Preflop: 9.57, Hands: 288)
BB: 51.6 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero (UTG): 45.8 BB
UTG+1: 53.6 BB (VPIP: 17.98, PFR: 17.06, 3Bet Preflop: 14.06, Hands: 179)
MP: 47.8 BB (VPIP: 16.77, PFR: 15.09, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 4,274)
MP+1: 45.67 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 21.43, Hands: 49)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has A♠ A♦

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (8.7 BB, 2 players) 7♠ 4♦ Q♣
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (8.7 BB, 2 players) 9♦
Hero bets 3.5 BB, BTN raises to 14.03 BB, Hero calls 10.53 BB

River: (36.77 BB, 2 players) T♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 33.43 BB and is all-in, fold

[spoil]BTN wins 36.77 BB
[/spoil]

 

[rikoberto]

So i start description of the hand without delay.Its from 2.5$ 180man MTTSNG of pokerstars that i grind a lot lastly and its against a good reg that i know him and he knows me a lot..i have 2k hands vs this specific villain..Some infos about him.He is TAG to Nit(sometimes)..
He doesnt 3bet vs UTG opens at all,he flats all his calling range.
His calling range from Button is 9%.So i standard open and he flats.Flop is kinda dry so i decided not to cbet..I think is questionable not to value cbet with Aces(and probably a mistake),but i decided to check as i dont think i can take 3 streets of value by him,also make my flop check/call range way stronger and protect also hands like TT-JJ i would open and overcard comes..Btw villain folds 70% of times on flop cbets.Turn comes 9 of diamonds and its time to bet.i bet 40% of pot and villain makes 4x raise!Knowing how tight he is and how rarely he is raising turn especially this early on tournament,i thought that he has a hand that or i am way behind,or he has some monster combo draw..If i could estimate his raising range i would say he has 44,77,99,QQ(as i said before he flats all his range vs utg opens),KT-KQ,QJ Of diamonds,JT-QT of diamonds,Q9s(2 pairs) and some KQ and AQ without diamonds that he overplays..We can put some QJo as well as bluff range with diamond blocker that he can shove on river but i dont think that villain would make this move in that spot.I think he would flat this hand.So doubting if i must shove turn or call,i decided to call.River is T of diamonds that is very bad card for me,i check and he shoves..Lastly, to add a very interesting stat i have for this villain.He bets(value or bluff) 8% of times he goes on river!Mostly check/call/folds..So he shoves the nuts here?
Given to pot odds i needed 30% to call river shove and with given SPR I think i should call but i felt its something very breakeven.I put on equilab range i believe he had on river that he shoves and Aces had 29.19% equity..So guys tell me your opinion.How would you play this hand?and what would you do at river.Thanks in advance
PS:If you think range i give to villain is too narrow and that he has more bluffs,i would like much to see what range u give him in this spot

 

[seeyouthru]

i think not cbetting flop was a bad idea!

 

[Edvin55555]

According to stats your villain is not looking very loose. So i think he had at least set in this spot.

 

[Luvepoker]

If he is as tight to nit player as you said he probably flopped 2 pair or a set. I think folding her on the turn after hit 4x bet would be the correct move. I think you made a mistake on the flop though. If the flop is dry or not I would have cbet the pot every time. If he has nothing he will fold but the odds of him hitting the turn enough to call you then is small as well. If the flop was as dry as you said but he had top pair he would call you. You want value from that hand while you can get it. If the turn was bad for his hopeful top pair he fold the turn and the value you could have had is now lost.