$2.20 NLHE MTT: LAG villain raises, 20bb stack 11bb in the middle, shove with 77?

[doomasiggy]

Villain stats: 36/24 over 20 hands

PokerStars - $2+$0.20|350/700 Ante 85 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+2: 17,778.00
MP: 56,117.00
MP+1: 25,642.00
CO: 31,106.00
BTN: 27,755.00
SB: 17,186.00
Hero (BB): 15,255.00
UTG: 23,817.00
UTG+1: 18,644.00

UTG+2 posts ante 85.00, MP posts ante 85.00, MP+1 posts ante 85.00, CO posts ante 85.00, BTN posts ante 85.00, SB posts ante 85.00, Hero posts ante 85.00, UTG posts ante 85.00, UTG+1 posts ante 85.00, SB posts SB 350.00, Hero posts BB 700.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 1815.00) Hero has 7:heart: 7:spade:

UTG calls 700.00, fold, UTG+2 raises to 2,800.00, MP calls 2,800.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 15,170.00

UTG+2 was 4x'ing std from every position. In a previous spot he'd 4x'd from MP1, called a 3-bet shove from a 15bb hand with ATo and sucked out against KK. Is shoving in this spot a good play given reads and the amount in the pot?

I thought it was at the time but then looking at the pot sizes it seems like he's not folding that often since he's getting 2:1 on the call.

 

[duggs]

i think its fine, even if we have to flip there is dead money to make it ok

 

[youregoodmate]

Agreed, I weigh more towards shove than fold.

 

[ddeely1]

Generally I would say this is a good shove. One piece of info that really stuck out to me though is that the villian had previously 4xed and then called off a shove with A10o. I think this shows that you don't have much fold equity and you're going to end up flipping most of the time here.

 

[duggs]

15bb is not the same as 22bb, i would be r/c A10 off alot at 15bb eff but not nearly as often at 22bb eff

 

[Arjonius]

I fold. It's not a 2-way situation. Since there are still two other people in the hand, one of whom has already called 2800, I'd be 3betting into 3 opponents, not just the one in question. I'll wait for a better spot.

 

[A2345Razz]

Snap shove.....

This is what youre looking for from a reshoving POV.

So much dead money/overlay in there plus there are gobs more FE then in the 15BB hand when you figure in his oversized preflop raise(lol) and the antes...etc.

 

[Tublecain]

I agree with the shove. At only 15bb, you are unlikely to land a much better hand in a better spot to win so much dead money. You are likely to lose the rest of your stack to antes and blinds before you get a hand that's good enough to shove with reasonable prospects of winning even in the case of showing down.

Given your description of the villain, I agree that your Fold Equity against him is probably very low, but even against 2 overcards you are at the very least even money, which is as good as you can hope for when you are at this low of a stack. Especially if this is a turbo, blinds are going up again soon and you will lose your money even faster. There's no way for you to know if he actually has a big hand.

In a related note, I seem to recall reading/hearing somewhere than in any big tournament, once you drop to below 20bb you are shoving almost any marginally strong hand (i.e. Paint, X or better). That was 3 years ago though, so maybe things have changed.

From your last sentence I gather you didn't win the hand, but I believe it was a good call nonetheless. That's poker