$2.20 NLHE MTT: Was this a bad call?

[whowantwhat]

9-max NLHE MTT
11 people left
I'm the 2nd to last smallest stack
I'm in the BB with 11 blinds with 22
SB open shoves 15bb


Are you supposed to call or fold?

 

[mktpppr]

Hi,

Yes, snap call, SB should be very wide here.

 

[300HPGOD]

I think I fold this. There is nothing that they could have you really beat. Your best hope is that villain has two random overcards (unless you are super lucky and they have A2 which is unlikely) that are not connected at all and arent suited. When this is the case you are roughly 52% to win give or take a %. You have no fold equity since villain already jammed so the best we are hoping for is a pure flip when of course we could be crushed (SB no doubt could have any two here but my point is any two is still almost beating you). I dont like making calls with any stack size unless I am on life support with <3 BB where I know I am getting it in bad or best case is a pure flip. Even when our opponent flips over pure garbage like 104 off with one of our suits we are at 51.89% without adding in the 2% ish for ties.

I believe it is much better to fold this and wait for the next time it is folded to you and you can open jam. You will be more successful open jamming 104 off yourself rather than calling 22 in this spot. I am not sure what my personal inflection point to make this a call with a pair. Maybe something like 55 would be the first pair I am calling off here but I would still expect to be flipping although the A2-A4s I would be beating well which is the difference between 22 and 55 in these spots.

 

[ph_il]

i'm probably just a nit but i think i fold here. with 22, i'm either flipping at best or way behind and, with 11 bbs, i don't feel like i just need to put myself in that situation. if i was down to, say, 6 bbs or less, then definitely call.

in this spot, i think i want to get it in with hands like 88 or q10s. with 88, i'm going to have better raw equity vs hands they're jamming. i still flip against over cards but i also dominate smaller pairs and smaller suited connectors. with q10s, i flip against smaller pairs, have decent equity and against hands like kj, aj, etc, can make top pair on some boards, and have flush and straight potential.

so, basically i want hands that is going to have decent preflop equity against some ranges and/or hands that have a lot of post flop potential. 22 just has none of that.

 

[whowantwhat]

I think I fold this. There is nothing that they could have you really beat. Your best hope is that villain has two random overcards (unless you are super lucky and they have A2 which is unlikely) that are not connected at all and arent suited. When this is the case you are roughly 52% to win give or take a %. You have no fold equity since villain already jammed so the best we are hoping for is a pure flip when of course we could be crushed (SB no doubt could have any two here but my point is any two is still almost beating you). I dont like making calls with any stack size unless I am on life support with <3 BB where I know I am getting it in bad or best case is a pure flip. Even when our opponent flips over pure garbage like 104 off with one of our suits we are at 51.89% without adding in the 2% ish for ties.

I believe it is much better to fold this and wait for the next time it is folded to you and you can open jam. You will be more successful open jamming 104 off yourself rather than calling 22 in this spot. I am not sure what my personal inflection point to make this a call with a pair. Maybe something like 55 would be the first pair I am calling off here but I would still expect to be flipping although the A2-A4s I would be beating well which is the difference between 22 and 55 in these spots.

Yeah in hindsight it was probably a bad call

Oh well, you live and you learn

 

[mktpppr]

Nash Equilibrium, chipEV, stack sizes assumed:

UTG: 25bb
CO: 23bb
BU: 20bb
SB: 15bb
BB: 11bb

SB65.6%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q3o+ J2s+ J7o+ T3s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 63s+ 53s+ 43s
BB46.0%, 22+ Ax K2s+ K3o+ Q3s+ Q7o+ J7s+ J8o+ T7s+ T9o 98s

readless this is a snap call, we need reads to fold 22 here

 

[1player2]

9-max NLHE MTT
11 people left
I'm the 2nd to last smallest stack
I'm in the BB with 11 blinds with 22
SB open shoves 15bb


Are you supposed to call or fold?

Hello,


I use this as a simple strategy late in tournaments. Open shove all pocket pairs. Only call someone else with pocket 8's or better. So I would fold here.

 

[fundiver199]

Nash Equilibrium, chipEV

You dont want to run simulations in chipEV, when there are only 11 people left. Chips won will always be worth less than chips lost with so few left. I plugged this into ICMizer assuming the other players had from 15BB-25BB apart from one guy, who had 9BB. And then 22 is a fold, regardless if 8 places pay or 27 places pay.

 

[mktpppr]

I stand corrected sir.

Must be a leak of mine to call so wide then.

 

[Jon Poker]

if we are not at the FT i always run these spots as chip bb ev -- i know in that aspect 22s are a snap call here vs nash or a capable opponent

 

[Vallet]

I wouldn't risk it. A pocket pair is good in this situation, but 22 is too overpriced. For example, 77 is definitely a call.

 

[zuker]

If villain push any two its call. If he push any reasonable range it`s fold.

 

[tomasdig]

I would fold. 300HPGOD summed it up best IMO, and fundiver with the ICMizer analysis validates it. Don't forget Sklansky's gap concept: you need a stronger hand to call than to jam.