$2.2 NLHE MTT Rebuy: SB with AKo vs UTG limper

[r_iiiichard]

BB: 175,788 (VPIP: 26.77, PFR: 13.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 127)
UTG: 163,909 (VPIP: 12.31, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 66)
UTG+1: 179,025 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 6)
MP: 45,302 (VPIP: 33.96, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 53)
MP+1: 44,506 (VPIP: 46.03, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 64)
CO: 59,850 (VPIP: 24.53, PFR: 5.66, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 53)
BTN: 183,895 (VPIP: 31.03, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 30)
Hero (SB): 116,860

8 players post ante of 280, Hero posts SB 1,150, BB posts BB 2,300

Pre Flop: (pot: 5,690) Hero has A♥ K♠

fold, UTG+1 calls 2,300, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5,520, BB calls 3,220, UTG+1 calls 3,220

Flop: (18,800, 3 players) 8♠ 6♠ 4♠
Hero bets 9,776, BB calls 9,776, UTG+1 calls 9,776

Turn: (48,128, 3 players) Q♦
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks

River: (48,128, 3 players) J♠
Hero bets 15,882, fold, UTG+1 raises to 75,801, Hero calls 59,919

UTG+1 shows A♠ 3♦ (Flush, Ace High)

Hero mucks A♥ K♠ (Flush, King High)

 

[t1riel]

With only one card that can beat you (I doubt he has 5, 7 of spades), how can you fold here unless you have a sick read?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

I would be going larger pre once there is a limper in there, particularly at this buyin level. Also we're in the SB so that makes me want to go even larger because we actually sort of want to force larger mistakes preflop given we're out of position and our opponents will have positional advantage throughout the hand.

I'm OKAY with betting the flop, but I definitely don't think it's mandatory. This board is mega wet, connects a lot better with our opponents' ranges than ours, etc. We do have the Ks which is the only reason I'm okay cbetting. But imo it's kinda on the fence and I'm fine check evaluating.

The turn is definitely a good check as played.

The river is a clear bet imo but then we get raised... And I really don't agree with this at all:

With only one card that can beat you (I doubt he has 5, 7 of spades), how can you fold here unless you have a sick read?

"Only one card that can beat you" is SUPER misleading. Look at the action. Two guys who are likely to have wide ranges continue here preflop. Any AsX hand is never folding the flop, and is not necessarily betting turn. If they are playing wide ranges, they might have all offsuit AX up to say AT or even AJ. Maybe we could discount some of the ones with a pair included on the flop since they might semibluff raise sometimes, but these guys look like they lean fairly passive.

That still leaves dozens of combos of AsX hands that can be out there.

And we need to take a look at the action. When he raises, particularly this size, can he have anything worse for value? Does he REALLY raise the QsX hands here? Does he even get to the turn that often with those hands? I doubt it.

Does anyone ever bluff here? What kinds of hands are they incentivized to bluff with? Basically none imo.

I would bet/fold here on the river and feel very very comfortable about it.

As a side note, consider using the "spoiler" functionality so we can't see the results while just reading through the hand. Or, just don't put the result in, since it CAN skew the opinions that people give out.

 

[GreenDaddy1]

In the heat of the battle I confess I might have found this tough to fold, but Scourrge is spot on with that analysis of the predicament on the river in my opinion.

 

[TDTODDY]

Yes it's a crazy hard hand to muck on the river. But what else are 2 players calling after the flop with? Nut flushes, and sets. Straight doesn't figure to be good, and over pairs with a spade are likely to shove. It's still a tough hand, and almost impossible to fold.

 

[TenJack]

Pretty standard river fold, especially multiway. I am in agreement with scourge, bet-fold is fine. Really, your lead is too strong to bluff against.

Also, if we look at his range, a large bit of it is Ax that he limps. Bad play, absoultley, but that is going to be the case a majority of the time.

 

[MattRyder]

Glad to see Scourrage's comments: "'Only one card that can beat you' is SUPER misleading", and "Does anyone ever bluff here?" That bet pretty much nails it for me.

 

[Ryan Laplante]

I would be going larger pre once there is a limper in there, particularly at this buyin level. Also we're in the SB so that makes me want to go even larger because we actually sort of want to force larger mistakes preflop given we're out of position and our opponents will have positional advantage throughout the hand.

I'm OKAY with betting the flop, but I definitely don't think it's mandatory. This board is mega wet, connects a lot better with our opponents' ranges than ours, etc. We do have the Ks which is the only reason I'm okay cbetting. But imo it's kinda on the fence and I'm fine check evaluating.

The turn is definitely a good check as played.

The river is a clear bet imo but then we get raised... And I really don't agree with this at all:



"Only one card that can beat you" is SUPER misleading. Look at the action. Two guys who are likely to have wide ranges continue here preflop. Any AsX hand is never folding the flop, and is not necessarily betting turn. If they are playing wide ranges, they might have all offsuit AX up to say AT or even AJ. Maybe we could discount some of the ones with a pair included on the flop since they might semibluff raise sometimes, but these guys look like they lean fairly passive.

That still leaves dozens of combos of AsX hands that can be out there.

And we need to take a look at the action. When he raises, particularly this size, can he have anything worse for value? Does he REALLY raise the QsX hands here? Does he even get to the turn that often with those hands? I doubt it.

Does anyone ever bluff here? What kinds of hands are they incentivized to bluff with? Basically none imo.

I would bet/fold here on the river and feel very very comfortable about it.

As a side note, consider using the "spoiler" functionality so we can't see the results while just reading through the hand. Or, just don't put the result in, since it CAN skew the opinions that people give out.

Well said.

 

[r_iiiichard]

I'm very grateful for the opinions. Very good to see different thoughts, they make us evolve.
@Scourrge I'll consider the tool mentioned.
In the heat of the moment it's difficult to fold, but that's what separates the wheat from the chaff. And as mentioned would be an easy fold. hehe. I intend to discipline myself.