$2.2 NLHE MTT: Jam - call or fold?

1sunchin

1sunchin

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pokerstars, $1.96 + $0.24 - Hold'em No Limit - 150/300 (22 ante) - 8 players

1numismat (UTG): 14,864 (50 bb)
Patres168 (UTG+1): 12,151 (41 bb)
Annuit20 (MP): 8,261 (28 bb)
mevrsavlt (MP+1): 26,917 (90 bb)
matumbaman68 (CO): 9,936 (33 bb)
pogi38 (BU): 3,581 (12 bb)
Henriquebc90 (SB): 6,251 (21 bb)
HappyWeeked (BB): 3,474 (12 bb)

Pre-Flop: (626) Hero (1numismat) is UTG with T♦ A♦
1numismat (UTG) raises to 600, 3 players fold, matumbaman68 (CO) calls 600, pogi38 (BU) 3-bets to 3,559 (all-in), 2 players fold, 1numismat (UTG) - ?
 
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300HPGOD

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What we know about villains here is extremely important. How has jamming villain been playing? If they have been quiet and now re jam over you your A10 is probably no good although could easily be flipping with 88 or 99 but I would think a tight villain here would be 88+, A10 or AJ+ so you are not looking great overall. You will have about 33% ish equity against a bigger Ax and three pocket pairs we are way ahead (88-1010) and 4 way behind (JJ+). You are getting 1.5 to 1 if villain behind does not call so to me personally against this range its not enough so I would fold. I like the min raise there so we can walk away mostly unscaved.

If there were no villain behind then it becomes closer but I personally probably still fold a min raise to a 12 BB shove here unless villain is loose. If it were 10 BBs less it moves closer to a call and a call with a shorter than 8 BBs. Also how is calling villain playing? Are they loose or were they tight before this hand? Do you think they will come along for a call if you just call? Those answers would play a role in my decision but I would need something to push me over into team call.

I dont think I jam A10 suited 50 BBs deep unless I am sure calling villain plays scared. Otherwise it allows them to play perfectly and fold all the hands we are beating and call our jam when they are strong (doubt they are strong since they just called pre but I have seen AJ type hands just call and then when you jam they all the sudden decide its strong enough to go with).
 
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1984

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for me call is not an option. push allin more favorable as you are utg, that open from there can represent stronger hands too, more likely stronger hands for the mid caller. in this deep he will probably fold all small pairs and A10, AJ, AQo, and all worse hands. but all depends on how both of them played before. if the shortstack guy is very tight player, then the fold maybe better.
definitely not a call.
 
1sunchin

1sunchin

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PokerStars, $1.96 + $0.24 - Hold'em No Limit - 150/300 (22 ante) - 8 players

1numismat (UTG): 14,864 (50 bb)
Patres168 (UTG+1): 12,151 (41 bb)
Annuit20 (MP): 8,261 (28 bb)
mevrsavlt (MP+1): 26,917 (90 bb)
matumbaman68 (CO): 9,936 (33 bb)
pogi38 (BU): 3,581 (12 bb)
Henriquebc90 (SB): 6,251 (21 bb)
HappyWeeked (BB): 3,474 (12 bb)

Pre-Flop: (626) Hero (1numismat) is UTG with T♦ A♦
1numismat (UTG) raises to 600, 3 players fold, matumbaman68 (CO) calls 600, pogi38 (BU) 3-bets to 3,559 (all-in), 2 players fold, 1numismat (UTG) - ?

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/124YSJFc7
 
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fundiver199

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I agree with others, that I dont want to just call here and allow CO to dubble flat, so that I have to play an awkward side pot against him out of position. If we jam, he is mainly going to fold, because usually he has some kind of marginal hand, where he just want to use his position to try to outplay us postflop.

So we can basically consider this an all-in for 12BB, and since this is only 25% of our chips, we dont need to give great consideration to ICM. Which mean we can just do the math and then pull out Equilap (free software) and give him some ranges to see, where the break-even point is for us to call this off.

We are calling 2.981 to win 8.838, which mean, we need at least 33,7% equity. This is not a lot, but if his jamming range is 88+, AJ+, then we only have 33,2%. And I think, this is fairly realistic, because he is facing an UTG open, and he should know, his fold equity is limited with just 12BB. Some might jam even tighter like AQ+, 99+, and then we only have 32,1%.

For us to make money by calling here, we need him to have hands, we are ahead of. If we widen his range to A9s+, A2s-A5s, QJs+, 66+, now we have 42%, and this is definitely enough to make me want to call this. But this is a 2$ tournament, and how many players are actually jamming all those hands against an UTG open? If he just lost a big pot and might be on tilt, I would lean towards a call. But if he has been playing tight and now suddenly wake up with this jam, I would fold.

We also need to remember, that CO folding is the ideal scenario. There will be some percentage of the time, where he call our jam, either because he was trapping with KK, or because he cant lay down a hand like 88 or AJ. This cuts into our profit, so we want to make some actual profit, when CO fold. We dont want this to be super marginal to break even.

Results
Checked the results now. Him showing ATo mean, his range was wide enough for us to give him action, because if he can have this, he can also have some suited aces or KQs type hands, that we beat. And of course always nice to bink a huge suck-out by beating the same hand with a flush :D
 
theANMATOR

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:) I'm NITTY McNITTLESON I don't even open this hand UTG unless I have solid reads on every player at the table, and I have them all covered, having double the number of chips vs the 2nd highest chip stack player on the table.

Looks like the poker gods smiled on you in this hand.
 
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lanelosee100

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Fold. Any call behind will almost guarantee a stronger ace and you will need to get very lucky to win. Not a fun spot
 
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