$2.2 NLHE MTT: Facing a minbet on the river with A9 high

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fundiver199

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pokerstars, $1.96 + $0.24 - Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 (12 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 7,413 (74 bb)
UTG+1: 4,954 (50 bb)
MP: 14,216 (142 bb)
MP+1: 2,575 (26 bb)
LP (Hero): 2,343 (23 bb)
CO: 9,722 (97 bb)
BU: 3,652 (37 bb)
SB: 7,054 (71 bb)
BB: 4,654 (47 bb)

Pre-Flop: (258) Hero is LP with 9♦ A♦
UTG calls 100, 3 players fold, Hero raises to 400, CO calls 400, 3 players fold, UTG calls 300

Flop: (1,458) 2♦ 7♠ 5♥ (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (1,458) 3♣ (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks

River: (1,458) J♥ (3 players)
UTG bets 100, Hero?

Hand is from a 2,2$ "big" MTT on PokerStars. UTG limps. HUD data is VPIP 100 / PFR 0 over 9 hands, so definitely a whale. I isolate with A9s, CO comes along for the ride, UTG calls. Decided to not C-bet on low board because multiway, and I was also kind of short, so not much room to mess around. CO check behind. Turn another low brick, check through again. River a J and now UTG leads for 1BB into a 15BB pot. What is your decision here:

a) Fold
b) Call
c) Raise

Also feel free to comment, if you would do anything different on the previous streets :)
 
E

eetenor

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PokerStars, $1.96 + $0.24 - Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 (12 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 7,413 (74 bb)
UTG+1: 4,954 (50 bb)
MP: 14,216 (142 bb)
MP+1: 2,575 (26 bb)
LP (Hero): 2,343 (23 bb)
CO: 9,722 (97 bb)
BU: 3,652 (37 bb)
SB: 7,054 (71 bb)
BB: 4,654 (47 bb)

Pre-Flop: (258) Hero is LP with 9♦ A♦
UTG calls 100, 3 players fold, Hero raises to 400, CO calls 400, 3 players fold, UTG calls 300

Flop: (1,458) 2♦ 7♠ 5♥ (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (1,458) 3♣ (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks

River: (1,458) J♥ (3 players)
UTG bets 100, Hero?

Hand is from a 2,2$ "big" MTT on PokerStars. UTG limps. HUD data is VPIP 100 / PFR 0 over 9 hands, so definitely a whale. I isolate with A9s, CO comes along for the ride, UTG calls. Decided to not C-bet on low board because multiway, and I was also kind of short, so not much room to mess around. CO check behind. Turn another low brick, check through again. River a J and now UTG leads for 1BB into a 15BB pot. What is your decision here:

a) Fold
b) Call
c) Raise

Also feel free to comment, if you would do anything different on the previous streets :)


Thank you for posting

The link did not work for me.

In my experience at these stakes I am flatting the A9s hoping to get multiple callers and over flush someone for an easy double up.
The reasoning behind this is stack protection versus the big stack limp- they love to limp shove- as well as the possible shove behind me which I would not call with A9s.

As well as exactly what happened to you- which is the UTG is never folding preflop and if the flop comes ugly which is most flops we cannot count on the UTG to fold even to a shove with a pair and any kind of draw on most boards.

In games where our villain's weakness is -letting us realize equity cheaply- that is the exploit we should employ most often.
I would much prefer to 3 bet the A9s versus UTG open than raise the limp it changes the dynamic of the V's thinking. Often they will play face up by just calling trying to hit or shoving with top of their range.

Either way though the playability of the A9 post flop versus the standard villain is low when we miss as the standard V with this stack size only folds any pair 20% of the time as shown by data base research. That standard fold % post flop is why I flat here.

Alexander Fitzgerald (Assassinato) has done some great low stakes data base mining and has a coaching site with some great insights into exploitable villain tendencies at these skill levels.

As played I agree with the shutdown on every street (fold %^^^) and I call on the river. I am losing 90% of the time but 1 bb is worth it 16-1 and to see how V thinks exactly. There is a lot of data to be gleaned from this V's thinking here and more and more low stakes villains are using the 1bb bet/min raise (mostly incorrectly) so I can apply the data to a large amount of my player pool.


Hope this helps
:):)
 
3

300HPGOD

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These are trickier spots than people think when we have a chronic limper in front and we have a stack that is on the edge of get it in territory. I think getting it in pre flop with A9 suited is a bit too much so I agree with not piling. Raising here to try to get it heads up makes sense to me but when we get called behind our plan gets foiled and SPR gets low. It sounds weird but I would raise here like the limper never happened (in this specific case with this stack, not normally) and make it something like 275. My thought behind this is that if someone other than maybe the BB who is getting a decent price anyway unless you go really large comes in too then we arent happy so I am making a bet to try to get CO, BTN and SB to fold and therefore can just raise smaller since I feel like they are coming in for 275 they are coming in for 400. Plus it will give us slightly more room post flop if we make the bet smaller. Im not completely against calling either but we could get raised behind as well.

Flop and turn I am on board with except I see some merit in making a small flop bet as played just to see if I can get a fold on a board where I can get some folds. You raised repping something so you might get some folds here. It would be a one shot thing for me where I am betting but if I get called Im done and if I get raised Im definitely done. You could bet something like 550 on the flop and if you never put a chip in the rest of the way you still have 14 or so BBs which is enough to push fold it and get back in the game.

Jumping to the river it comes down to what we think of our opponents and how we range them. My ranging of opponents here would be UTG has either Jx or some air crap since I would expect them (not sure how aggressive post they are) to lead the turn with any 7 or 5 and would expect them to check the river with a 2 or 3. That leaves Jx (weird bet for Jx but possible) or air trying to do some very weird take the pot attempt. The cutoff behind us we cant forget called our raise pre. We have heard nothing from them even when we checked to them twice so I am thinking no pairs but something more like Ax where it is a bigger Ax than ours. If thats the case then we need to think if they will fold to a 1 BB river bet and call in front of them with something like AJ or A10. If not then there is no reason for us to call and them to call behind with what is more likely a better Ace. I think your options here are fold or raise. Folding to 1 BB seems weird but again if you think you have little showdown value vs CO and CO will call then I dont see calling. I think you can fold here but I lean towards raising here depending on what you think of CO. I already know UTG can have any two cards here with their air so I am raising not thinking of them but thinking of getting CO out. If I think CO will fold to a bet of 500 here I am making it and taking my chances against UTG who still could fold even some made hands depending on their characteristics. I think if you are going to raise this hand for as much of your stack as you did then you need to take a swing somewhere. A bet of 500 on the river can still get some folds, especially CO which is our fold target, and if you are wrong then you still have about 14 BBs.
 
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eetenor

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These are trickier spots than people think when we have a chronic limper in front and we have a stack that is on the edge of get it in territory. I think getting it in pre flop with A9 suited is a bit too much so I agree with not piling. Raising here to try to get it heads up makes sense to me but when we get called behind our plan gets foiled and SPR gets low. It sounds weird but I would raise here like the limper never happened (in this specific case with this stack, not normally) and make it something like 275. My thought behind this is that if someone other than maybe the BB who is getting a decent price anyway unless you go really large comes in too then we arent happy so I am making a bet to try to get CO, BTN and SB to fold and therefore can just raise smaller since I feel like they are coming in for 275 they are coming in for 400. Plus it will give us slightly more room post flop if we make the bet smaller. Im not completely against calling either but we could get raised behind as well.

Flop and turn I am on board with except I see some merit in making a small flop bet as played just to see if I can get a fold on a board where I can get some folds. You raised repping something so you might get some folds here. It would be a one shot thing for me where I am betting but if I get called Im done and if I get raised Im definitely done. You could bet something like 550 on the flop and if you never put a chip in the rest of the way you still have 14 or so BBs which is enough to push fold it and get back in the game.

Jumping to the river it comes down to what we think of our opponents and how we range them. My ranging of opponents here would be UTG has either Jx or some air crap since I would expect them (not sure how aggressive post they are) to lead the turn with any 7 or 5 and would expect them to check the river with a 2 or 3. That leaves Jx (weird bet for Jx but possible) or air trying to do some very weird take the pot attempt. The cutoff behind us we cant forget called our raise pre. We have heard nothing from them even when we checked to them twice so I am thinking no pairs but something more like Ax where it is a bigger Ax than ours. If thats the case then we need to think if they will fold to a 1 BB river bet and call in front of them with something like AJ or A10. If not then there is no reason for us to call and them to call behind with what is more likely a better Ace. I think your options here are fold or raise. Folding to 1 BB seems weird but again if you think you have little showdown value vs CO and CO will call then I dont see calling. I think you can fold here but I lean towards raising here depending on what you think of CO. I already know UTG can have any two cards here with their air so I am raising not thinking of them but thinking of getting CO out. If I think CO will fold to a bet of 500 here I am making it and taking my chances against UTG who still could fold even some made hands depending on their characteristics. I think if you are going to raise this hand for as much of your stack as you did then you need to take a swing somewhere. A bet of 500 on the river can still get some folds, especially CO which is our fold target, and if you are wrong then you still have about 14 BBs.


Good points all.

Data research suggest that if this was a higher mid stakes tournie than the frequency of folding by the UTG would climb to 40% pairs folding not 20%. Under those conditions your strategy would be EV+.

In games such as this where the fold frequency is 50% of the mid stakes rate those strategies can turn EV- only because of frequency of result. Yes you will win pots being aggressive but it is the frequency of wins that matters.

Stack preservation when we have a high skill advantage is important. When we make the bets you suggest and lose we will be in push fold mode more often (fold rate 20% not 40%) and that will reduce our skill advantage to slightly better than 0. The reason it is near 0 is it is very difficult to correctly compensate for the wider ranges our villains may call our shoves with including multiple callers and if we tighten those ranges we will not be shoving often enough.

Of course this is dependent on the player dynamics at your table.


Great points by you and with any information suggesting the V would fold at higher than standard rate (20%) your strategy would be the one I would have employed as well.

:):)
 
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300HPGOD

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Good points all.

Data research suggest that if this was a higher mid stakes tournie than the frequency of folding by the UTG would climb to 40% pairs folding not 20%. Under those conditions your strategy would be EV+.

In games such as this where the fold frequency is 50% of the mid stakes rate those strategies can turn EV- only because of frequency of result. Yes you will win pots being aggressive but it is the frequency of wins that matters.

Stack preservation when we have a high skill advantage is important. When we make the bets you suggest and lose we will be in push fold mode more often (fold rate 20% not 40%) and that will reduce our skill advantage to slightly better than 0. The reason it is near 0 is it is very difficult to correctly compensate for the wider ranges our villains may call our shoves with including multiple callers and if we tighten those ranges we will not be shoving often enough.

Of course this is dependent on the player dynamics at your table.


Great points by you and with any information suggesting the V would fold at higher than standard rate (20%) your strategy would be the one I would have employed as well.

:):)

You might be right. This is a really good hand to post and good one for discussion. I posted my above and then took shower thinking about the hand the whole time in the shower and now think maybe this is a fold. The reason is that I am still not too worried about UTG but I am worried about CO. If CO is decent then they should be able to pickup from our just calling there that we have near nothing (or at least something foldable) and therefore when they have nothing they can bet and make our lives hell here. I still feel they are Ax for the same reasons our opponents could see that we are likely Ax. Pocket pairs would either have a good chance of setting by now or would be an overpair to the board and would make themselves known. Suited broadways are possible but I still lean towards Ax and AK would re raise, AQ might re raise, A7 and below should be folding so that leaves A8-AJ for the almost all the Axs and AJ just got there. I think its important to remember there is no reason to call if we think CO has us beat and is never folding to 1 BB. I am also starting to think UTG since they play everything could have 3x or 2x and is making a blocker bet of sorts here. I still go with my raise but I think it is a lot closer now after thinking about the hand more. I would not be afraid to play push fold here with 14 BBs though since it enough to get a good hand in, be called by worse and still have a more than playable stack.
 
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eetenor

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You might be right. This is a really good hand to post and good one for discussion. I posted my above and then took shower thinking about the hand the whole time in the shower and now think maybe this is a fold. The reason is that I am still not too worried about UTG but I am worried about CO. If CO is decent then they should be able to pickup from our just calling there that we have near nothing (or at least something foldable) and therefore when they have nothing they can bet and make our lives hell here. I still feel they are Ax for the same reasons our opponents could see that we are likely Ax. Pocket pairs would either have a good chance of setting by now or would be an overpair to the board and would make themselves known. Suited broadways are possible but I still lean towards Ax and AK would re raise, AQ might re raise, A7 and below should be folding so that leaves A8-AJ for the almost all the Axs and AJ just got there. I think its important to remember there is no reason to call if we think CO has us beat and is never folding to 1 BB. I am also starting to think UTG since they play everything could have 3x or 2x and is making a blocker bet of sorts here. I still go with my raise but I think it is a lot closer now after thinking about the hand more. I would not be afraid to play push fold here with 14 BBs though since it enough to get a good hand in, be called by worse and still have a more than playable stack.


Wow great job with the further breakdown -excellent points again.

I might choose to fold preflop as well based on the ability for the CO to play correctly with most of their range and put us in hell as u put it.

The over call for me is based on the potential fear factor of the big stack keeping everyone else in line. I am willing to try to realize equity with 23bb in a potential over flush situation only not a top pair weak kicker situation and a 4+ way hand where I have position on the stack everyone else will be afraid of. As you can tell from the language I am using I expect a standard table at this buy-in level where I do not know any of the V to be good players to be highly exploitable.

As to the river call again all your points are great and the probability of it being a hand that beats us is probably 98% but as it is 1bb I make the mistake of calling and pay 1bb for the exact limp call range and again because I am exploiting villains I want them to think I am a donk. After all if they think I will call light few adjust by bluffing the correct frequencies. I will make a note of every player on my table that they saw me be a calling donk for use in later tournaments. If you have exploits you have to note who saw you use them.

:):)
 
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fundiver199

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Great discussion. Preflop I think a small iso-raise is a great idea. We never get UTG to fold, but realistically a whale is also not limp-folding for 4BB, when he have a big stack. And by raising small we still give ourselfes a chance to get it heads up, and we dont allow the players in the blinds a free look at the flop or a cheap complete. 4-5BB is my normal iso size, but when I am short like here, things get kind of awkward, when I get action and miss the flop.

On the river I dont think, we can fold for such a small bet. It sucks, that we have a guy behind us, but if we call, we are still winning at showdown at least 1 out of 15 in my opinion. The guy behind has checked behind twice, so unless he hit the J, he probably has a very weak hand, and if its a better A high, we might actually get him to fold. This is sometimes called a "calling bluff". As for raising I think, we would just be forcing UTG to put more chips in the pot, when he has a better hand and fold, when he has a worse. So I ended up calling. The guy behind folded, and UTG had KQ, so I won the pot :)
 
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eetenor

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Great discussion. Preflop I think a small iso-raise is a great idea. We never get UTG to fold, but realistically a whale is also not limp-folding for 4BB, when he have a big stack. And by raising small we still give ourselfes a chance to get it heads up, and we dont allow the players in the blinds a free look at the flop or a cheap complete. 4-5BB is my normal iso size, but when I am short like here, things get kind of awkward, when I get action and miss the flop.

On the river I dont think, we can fold for such a small bet. It sucks, that we have a guy behind us, but if we call, we are still winning at showdown at least 1 out of 15 in my opinion. The guy behind has checked behind twice, so unless he hit the J, he probably has a very weak hand, and if its a better A high, we might actually get him to fold. This is sometimes called a "calling bluff". As for raising I think, we would just be forcing UTG to put more chips in the pot, when he has a better hand and fold, when he has a worse. So I ended up calling. The guy behind folded, and UTG had KQ, so I won the pot :)


Boom take that pot :icon_sant



As you said it sucks but we do win some times.

For those who are at the beginning stages of their trek to greatness reading this thread.

At this stake level we will see our villains play face up like this often enough on rivers. We want to be taking notes on player pool tendencies and creating a diary which we can review that helps us learn to use the actions on all the streets combined with the board texture to guide us on rivers.

We want to study the GTO actions that each player should be taking in this hand on each street. By understanding what your villain's GTO actions would be we can then make the best decision on the river when the V's actions deviate from GTO.
Feel free to respond to this thread and ask about what those actions might be -both of the above responders are excellent at sharing valuable strategies


Thanks for the share, as always great contribution to the community by you both.

:):)
 
theANMATOR

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Thank you for posting

The link did not work for me.

In my experience at these stakes I am flatting the A9s hoping to get multiple callers and over flush someone for an easy double up.
The reasoning behind this is stack protection versus the big stack limp- they love to limp shove- as well as the possible shove behind me which I would not call with A9s.

As well as exactly what happened to you- which is the UTG is never folding preflop and if the flop comes ugly which is most flops we cannot count on the UTG to fold even to a shove with a pair and any kind of draw on most boards.

In games where our villain's weakness is -letting us realize equity cheaply- that is the exploit we should employ most often.
I would much prefer to 3 bet the A9s versus UTG open than raise the limp it changes the dynamic of the V's thinking. Often they will play face up by just calling trying to hit or shoving with top of their range.

Either way though the playability of the A9 post flop versus the standard villain is low when we miss as the standard V with this stack size only folds any pair 20% of the time as shown by data base research. That standard fold % post flop is why I flat here.

Alexander Fitzgerald (Assassinato) has done some great low stakes data base mining and has a coaching site with some great insights into exploitable villain tendencies at these skill levels.

As played I agree with the shutdown on every street (fold %^^^) and I call on the river. I am losing 90% of the time but 1 bb is worth it 16-1 and to see how V thinks exactly. There is a lot of data to be gleaned from this V's thinking here and more and more low stakes villains are using the 1bb bet/min raise (mostly incorrectly) so I can apply the data to a large amount of my player pool.


Hope this helps
:):)

Damn fine assessment E. I believe you nailed it, though I'm 50/50 on the river. Seems he binked his Jack, so why call. Like I said 50/50 sometimes I'll call and others Ill fold.
 
Jon Poker

Jon Poker

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I know this is a month old - but anyhow...

For me this is an easy and clean fold. Villan could easily have better Ax to showdown, middling pairs, or spiked a jack on the river. It's a multiway pot that I think you played very well - he lays a ridiculous price on the river and that doesn't matter to me. I don't need to be wasting chips no matter how little it is. Plus there is still a villan left to act behind us that can make our life hell - we just don't need this spot in our lives. I can always get chips back from a whale anyway so no reason to start hero calling the fish with hi cards when I can just bluff catch them later with 2nd or 3rd pair holdings.
 
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Tony0

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This is sometimes done to look like a pathetic attempt to steal the pot, to induce a reraise.

Sometimes it is someone who just pushes buttons and does not really get the relation between the pot and bet size.

They almost certainly have showdown value though.
 
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