$2.2 NLHE MTT Bounty: Should I have called, shove or fold ?

[1sunchin]

Hero - 1numismat

Remain - 995 players, ITM - 719 places

pokerstars Hand #231992158264: Tournament #3312917012, $0.96+$1.00+$0.24 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (200/400) - 2021/12/06 19:39:52 MSK [2021/12/06 11:39:52 ET]
Table '3312917012 64' 8-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: 1numismat (20643 in chips, $1.50 bounty)
Seat 2: Tomas20LT (19708 in chips, $3.18 bounty)
Seat 3: bobla499 (22834 in chips, $2 bounty)
Seat 4: thenotlucky. (12876 in chips, $2.25 bounty)
Seat 5: Gabriela2255 (28509 in chips, $1.50 bounty)
Seat 6: evehaavisto (6292 in chips, $1 bounty)
Seat 7: matuteder (10334 in chips, $1.50 bounty)
Seat 8: flendr (39298 in chips, $3.50 bounty)
1numismat: posts the ante 60
Tomas20LT: posts the ante 60
bobla499: posts the ante 60
thenotlucky.: posts the ante 60
Gabriela2255: posts the ante 60
evehaavisto: posts the ante 60
matuteder: posts the ante 60
flendr: posts the ante 60
bobla499: posts small blind 200
thenotlucky.: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 1numismat [Ac Jc]
Gabriela2255: folds
evehaavisto: folds
matuteder: folds
flendr: raises 460 to 860
1numismat: calls 860
Tomas20LT: folds
bobla499: calls 660
thenotlucky.: calls 460
*** FLOP *** [5h 9c 6c]
bobla499: checks
thenotlucky.: checks
flendr: bets 1764
1numismat: calls 1764
bobla499: folds
thenotlucky.: raises 10192 to 11956 and is all-in
flendr: calls 10192
1numismat - ?

 

[300HPGOD]

Hand plays easier as a 3 bet pre. Does not need to be an overly large 3 bet either unless the players behind you are aggressive 4 bettors which is usually not the case in the micros. I would say somewhere even in the 2000-2200 range is enough. That will usually get the hand heads up and even if it doesnt they will more than likely check to you on the flop which helps you pot control should you want to.

As played in the hand I think I would just call the flop as you did although you could raise but with this many people in the pot I would say just call. A lot of these hands where there is a near min raise pre and then many callers mean there are pocket pairs out there and this flop nails the pocket pair range that would just call. We also have no information about the blinds strength of hands since most of the time they will check to the raiser.

Once there is an all in and a call to that all in I think you could easily be up against a set that will have a re draw against you even should you hit the flush. Based on what I think your opponents will have here most of the time (one with a set and the other with an over pair) you will be in the 25% equity range. You arent quite getting the 3 to 1 you need unless my math is off as it could be since this hand is hard to read and I am not seeing all the details as I write this, I think this is a fold unless you really want to gamble here and go for a big stack. The bounty is in play which adds to the side of making the call but then there is ICM to losing here vs how far you could go so to me this is a negative chip EV play to call, probably profitable money wise (short term in the tournament) call to make taking into account the bounty (but we have to beat both hands for that to be the case) and including how much of the prize pool you could be forgoing by busting out here and loss of future bounty pickups, Id say non profitable money wise (long term in the tournament). After all that I would fold here

 

[micalupagoo]

I sure don’t like calling all in on a draw, especially for 30 bbs and our whole stack when we’re pretty deep in the game. I’d usually wait for a better spot to get it in

 

[fundiver199]

As I just answered to someone else, please use the free Hand Converter here on CC. I cant even figure out, which seat Hero is in, and unvonverted hand histories are just garbage to read in general.

 

[1sunchin]

As I just answered to someone else, please use the free Hand Converter here on CC. I cant even figure out, which seat Hero is in, and unvonverted hand histories are just garbage to read in general.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/124YmDMb4

 

[fundiver199]

Ok thanks

Preflop
I think, folding AJs to a HJ open is way to tight, so its only between 3-betting and calling. The fact, he is the chip leader, and its a bounty, could mean we have less fold equity. On the other hand often a chip leader will be opening really wide, and then we dont need fold equity, because then AJs is strictly a 3-bet for value, since we are so far ahead of his range. Its also a very small open, which is going to give the blinds a fantastic price to come along. So if we just call, we usually end up going multiway. Considering the pros and cons I prefer 3-betting over calling in this spot, but calling is clearly better than folding.

Flop
We flop the nut flushdraw on a low coordinated flop, and HJ makes a standard C-bet. I think, that when he C-bet in a multiway pot, his range is much stronger, than it would be in a heads-up pot. So I dont think, we have quite enough fold equity to warrent a raise, and when we are drawing to the nuts but likely behind, we actually want the other players to stay in the hand. So I completely agree with just calling, and of course folding is totally out of the question, when we flop this strong.

Now however BB check-jam, and HJ just call, which is fairly awkward, because we are then going to have a small amount of chips left against him. We could however consider it an effective jam, and in that case its a simple math decision. You are putting in 17.959 to win a total pot of 55.322, so you need 32,5% equity to break even in chip EV. However you can win half of BBs 2,25$ bounty, which with a starting stack of 5.000 chips (assuming this is a Bounty Builder on Stars) is worth around 2.500 chips, so factoring that in you only need 31% equity to break even in chip EV.

However ICM is also a factor here being relatively near the bubble, and if you have a skill edge on the field you can use 45BB in better ways than putting them in as a call in a situation, where you are almost certainly behind and drawing, and where you have no fold equity. So while calling is not a big mistake, I think the more clever play here is to fold and preserve the rest of your stack. I plugged in some realistic ranges for them in Equilap, and that actually only gave you 30% equity in the main pot and 40% in the side pot. So if this call is even profitable considering ICM, its fairly marginal.

 

[ronn6583]

A special feature of this tournament is the bounty.
The bounty at stake is $2.25. If you go all-in, the bounty is 3.75. The chip leader will definitely call.
You have a strong draw, but you're behind on the turn. You have 18% on 1:4 for get nuts.
Secondly, you are near ITM.
In my opinion, it's better to fold here. And wait for a better situation than to get out for 2, 25 prizes. According to my observations in such situations, the chip leader is luckier.
If you don't care, it's better to go all-in than to call.

When you post your hand in the convector, you can choose Hide Results

 

[azforlife]

As I just answered to someone else, please use the free Hand Converter here on CC. I cant even figure out, which seat Hero is in, and unvonverted hand histories are just garbage to read in general.

Thanks a lot for asking, me neither.

 

[azforlife]

It comes down to what do you think they got?
When BB shoves over 2 players, you know he has 2p or better. You're getting around 3-1 on flop but you can't call as flush outs could be out & your're def. drawing. Never good to call for your MTT life drawing, imo.