This is a discussion on $2.2 NLHE MTT: 3 way all in or fold? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; PokerStars, $1.96 + $0.24 - Hold'em No Limit - 10,000/20,000 (3,000 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat
UTG: 2,107,427 (105 bb)
UTG+1: 254,837 (13 bb)
A nit here again. Wait for the overpair. Going all in looks good on stream or a tv show, but I have a feeling most of the folks that were left were willing to see flops, though at a cost. AJ suited is a good short stack push, but better to see a flop with.
Even against just MP+1 this is a pretty close spot, and if MP+1 is a tight player, I prefer to fold. I simply think, you can make better use of a 30BB stack than getting 19BB in a spot, that is at best kind of break even or very marginal profitable. And when CO have cold called behind, then AJs is a snap fold, because his range have you absolutely crushed. So you definitely made the correct decision here, and its nowhere near as close, as you apparently thing.
Vs all in and a call I am just sighing and folding. CO has you covered and he just called. Looks like he doesent mind you staying in or raising. I dont think he is going anywhere no matter what you do.
I am outa here.
Facts are empowering. Even when the facts are discouraging, not knowing or acknowledging the facts is worse.
I like the way Fundiver is thinking of this hand and that is to think what would be our action if we just got jammed on and not even consider (yet) what to do with a call behind that. The initial jam on you is from a stack of 18.5 BB which is a great rejam stack, however, what do we really think they are rejamming with? Depending on the image that we have at the table I dont think they are rejamming 18.5 BB there with wheel aces so I would think the very bottom of their range would be A8 and most of their range constists of pocket pairs since we have an ace blocker. This translates to pure flips on the 1010 and below pairs and were crushed on the higher pairs. Factor in were crushed against AQ+ that leaves were hoping for A10, A9 or A8 and that is just not enough for us to call of 2/3rds of our stack when at this point 30BB is still somewhat healthy.
Now lets factor in the cold call with that call coming with so many players left to act and I dont think this one is even that close. There will be some times here when we are up against 88 and 1010 sitting in a good price spot to triple (2.6 times ish) up but we have to hope for that. Could easily be in a spot here we we are up against 1010 and AQ and really not sitting well. This is a fairly easy fold with this action and a fold even if it was just one jam. Remember to always think of some worse hands that yours and ask "would my opponent be doing the action hes doing with something less than what I have." If you can come up with a lot of hands that fit then you can call easier. If you cant come up with many or any worse hands that would be doing this then you fold.
I don't think there's even a way to think about calling in that situation. You could even win the hand.
But you cannot be result oriented, in the long run AJs in a situation like this will be deficient.