$2.10 NLHE MTT: $2.10 NLHE MTT: $$2.10 NLHE MTT: $$2.10 NLHE MTT: FT in sight - donk move?

[MissVix]

$2.10 NLHE MTT: $2.10 NLHE MTT: $$2.10 NLHE MTT: $$2.10 NLHE MTT: FT in sight - donk move?

Hi,

Playing a $2.10 MTT. 2800 entrants. Top 370 paid. Down to the final 23 runners.

According to the site's HUD stats, I was 24% VPIP with a 70% win rate - showing down with genuine hands (even when I lost 200k a few hands earlier to a guy playing rags).

Aggression had ramped up for the previous 3 orbits - shorter stacks pushing pf and larger stacks doing the same to apply pressure. For the previous 6 hands, villain raised/pushed/called all in every hand and stealing my thunder on a couple of occasions when I was LP or button..

My thought process
1) This was the best hand I'd hand in a while.
2) My 490k = 14bb and the pot was 20% of my stack - which I figured was just about big enough to scare others off.
3) Waiting to be in LP again meant seeing others go all-in first.
4) Raising 2/3x bb would result in a re-raise all-in.
5) Hanging on for grim life never wins tourneys.You gotta be brave. I'd folded better hands than what villains were pushing (and winning with).

However I can't shake the feeling this was a donk move and I should've waited even though the blinds/ante were really beginning to take their toll. To bust after 8 hours and outlasting 99% of the field really, really stings.


GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 17,500/35,000 (5,500 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

fe7112ed (UTG): 1,243,855 (36 bb)
6006ea43 (UTG+1): 359,782 (10 bb)
Hero (MP): 490,761 (14 bb)
6757431b (MP+1): 1,253,327 (36 bb)
46626ef5 (CO): 2,943,425 (84 bb)
391799eb (BU): 416,401 (12 bb)
e1caf58b (SB): 357,862 (10 bb)
502248a5 (BB): 424,354 (12 bb)

Pre-Flop: (96,500) Hero (Hero) is MP with J♥ Q♦
2 players fold, Hero (MP) raises to 485,261 (all-in), 1 fold, 46626ef5 (CO) calls 485,261, 3 players fold

Flop: (1,067,022) 9♥ 2♦ 2♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (1,067,022) 7♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (1,067,022) K♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 1,067,022

Showdown:
Hero (MP) shows J♥ Q♦ (a pair of Twos)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 39%, Flop: 30%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

46626ef5 (CO) shows T♠ A♠ (a pair of Twos - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 61%, Flop: 70%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

46626ef5 (CO) wins 1,067,022

 

[fundiver199]

This one is so close, that neither folding or jamming can be consider a mistake. If the players behind were generally nitty, jamming becomes better, and if there were calling stations behind, jamming becomes worse. I would also tend to not jam, if the table was really soft with 1-2 huge fish, because then you should be able to find better spots later. But at the end of the day a hand like this just is, what it is, and its nothing to kick yourself about

 

[vsawake01]

You could wait a bit.
1. Two players has 10bb and two 12bb on your table only. More likely you 14-15 and double up move you to 12-13.
2. Huge stack after you.

 

[Collin Moshman]

This is good shove so don't worry about it

With a 14bb stack, a broadway hand, and being in mid position, it will rarely be a mistake to jam. Congrats on the deep run and you'll get there next time!

 

[Nr98]

This is good shove so don't worry about it

With a 14bb stack, a broadway hand, and being in mid position, it will rarely be a mistake to jam. Congrats on the deep run and you'll get there next time!

Tbf I disagree. If you define making a mistake as making a -EV move, then yes, a 14bb jam with these antes is just about profitable (close to break even, not even considering any ICM pressure, although small).

However, if you define making a mistake as going for a sub-optimal play. Then this falls into that category for sure imo. Min-raise/fold to a jam is so much more profitable in the long run. For a couple of reasons:

1. People are rejamming nowhere near enough in these fields (and even if they would be, a minraise is still the move imo). If we do have over aggressive players sitting behind, simply tighten up a bit and call off wider.
2. While I do not argue for passing up on profitable spots because you're scared of getting stacked at all, in this case there's a good argument for stack preservation imo. You run deep in a very soft tournament. People are going to make plenty of mistakes here. Because of that reason, I would be very cautious about taking a close to 0EV jam in a rare spot like this.

Note: yeah the 10-12bb stacks from BU-BB make the jam slightly more attractive than if everyone would cover us, but that doesn't make up for 1 and 2 above imo.

 

[ZenGreen]

Nice, youre right gotta be brave to win these games, and hanging on for dear life aint no way to live,

BUT WE ALSO NEED THESE ****ERS TO HOLD UP LATE GAME LIKE THEY WERE HOLDING UP EARLY GAME!!!!!!!. I never understand why this hand will stack 20 people the first 2 hours and have you run into it over and over when it matters

 

[andrestc]

Tbf I disagree. If you define making a mistake as making a -EV move, then yes, a 14bb jam with these antes is just about profitable (close to break even, not even considering any ICM pressure, although small).

However, if you define making a mistake as going for a sub-optimal play. Then this falls into that category for sure imo. Min-raise/fold to a jam is so much more profitable in the long run. For a couple of reasons:

1. People are rejamming nowhere near enough in these fields (and even if they would be, a minraise is still the move imo). If we do have over aggressive players sitting behind, simply tighten up a bit and call off wider.
2. While I do not argue for passing up on profitable spots because you're scared of getting stacked at all, in this case there's a good argument for stack preservation imo. You run deep in a very soft tournament. People are going to make plenty of mistakes here. Because of that reason, I would be very cautious about taking a close to 0EV jam in a rare spot like this.

Note: yeah the 10-12bb stacks from BU-BB make the jam slightly more attractive than if everyone would cover us, but that doesn't make up for 1 and 2 above imo.

I agree with this, I would minraise/fold with this particular combo.

 

[4kingwildo]

in my opinion, it is too aggressive, I don't see what can be analyzed here. even if the opponent is a donk.

 

[p00nEsBakk]

Fold

Hi,

Playing a $2.10 MTT. 2800 entrants. Top 370 paid. Down to the final 23 runners.

According to the site's HUD stats, I was 24% VPIP with a 70% win rate - showing down with genuine hands (even when I lost 200k a few hands earlier to a guy playing rags).

Aggression had ramped up for the previous 3 orbits - shorter stacks pushing pf and larger stacks doing the same to apply pressure. For the previous 6 hands, villain raised/pushed/called all in every hand and stealing my thunder on a couple of occasions when I was LP or button..

My thought process
1) This was the best hand I'd hand in a while.
2) My 490k = 14bb and the pot was 20% of my stack - which I figured was just about big enough to scare others off.
3) Waiting to be in LP again meant seeing others go all-in first.
4) Raising 2/3x bb would result in a re-raise all-in.
5) Hanging on for grim life never wins tourneys.You gotta be brave. I'd folded better hands than what villains were pushing (and winning with).

However I can't shake the feeling this was a donk move and I should've waited even though the blinds/ante were really beginning to take their toll. To bust after 8 hours and outlasting 99% of the field really, really stings.

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 17,500/35,000 (5,500 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

fe7112ed (UTG): 1,243,855 (36 bb)
6006ea43 (UTG+1): 359,782 (10 bb)
Hero (MP): 490,761 (14 bb)
6757431b (MP+1): 1,253,327 (36 bb)
46626ef5 (CO): 2,943,425 (84 bb)
391799eb (BU): 416,401 (12 bb)
e1caf58b (SB): 357,862 (10 bb)
502248a5 (BB): 424,354 (12 bb)

Pre-Flop: (96,500) Hero (Hero) is MP with J♥ Q♦
2 players fold, Hero (MP) raises to 485,261 (all-in), 1 fold, 46626ef5 (CO) calls 485,261, 3 players fold

Flop: (1,067,022) 9♥ 2♦ 2♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (1,067,022) 7♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (1,067,022) K♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 1,067,022

Showdown:
Hero (MP) shows J♥ Q♦ (a pair of Twos)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 39%, Flop: 30%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

46626ef5 (CO) shows T♠ A♠ (a pair of Twos - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 61%, Flop: 70%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

46626ef5 (CO) wins 1,067,022

All in, Another guy calls, and then it is up to you with QJ offsuit. Without knowing specifics on how you had these players noted..... QJ isn’t a hand that I would shove All In against two prior players whom have already All In - With this scenario, Any Ax has you beat. Any AJ AQ KQ KJ QQ JJ KK KJ and QJs has you in a place thinking “wtf did I do that for?”. If you wait for Ax, at-least you are in a coin flip situation where you might be ahead.

Unless your the Button and the rest have folded down to you and the SB & BB, fold and wait.

 

[Willim6]

Tuniere

Hallo

Ich heiße Willim6

Schicken Sie das kleine bisschen Geld! Ich schicke das heute zurück

Mein Name: Willim6:icon_bigs

 

[theANMATOR]

Sorry for your outcome. I'd just fold and wait for a better spot. 14bb is like a million hands left to pick up something better, even shoving a suited K is better than Q/J o.

I rarely play this hand - when I do - it's always cautiously until I hit the nuts or a strong strong hand, and villain is on the defensive.