$16.50 NLHE MTT: Massive Blunder or Unfortunate Timing?

[sundizzel]

I won a freeroll ticket to a $50,000 GTD tournament that took place on Sunday. Since I've been working on building up a bankroll from $0 from freerolls and super-micros and my total bankroll was only $70, this was a huge opportunity for me. I wound up getting some run good and making it very deep in the tournament, but I may have a made a huge blunder and would appreciate some feedback.

15 players remain after 10 hours of play in a field of several thousand runners (top 500 got ITM). I've locked up $250 (nearly quadruple my measly bankroll), and the pay jumps are now huge--$6,250 up top. I am in the Hi-Jack with AsQs and 19.5 BB. It is technically full-ring, but the table is short 1 player, so there are 8 players in the hand.

It folds down to me, and the remaining players are: CO with 26.5 BB, BTN with 22.5 BB, SB with 33 BB, and BB with 30 BB. I proceed to shove my AsQs with 19.5 BB, CO and BTN fold, SB re-jams with 33 BB, and BB folds. SB shows... AhAd, yikes!

So did I make a massive blunder? If so, how could I have played this better? Some of my thoughts are:

Open Raise 3.5 BB. He either calls to slow play, re-raises to something like 10 BB, or shoves me to get the fold/called by worse.

If he jams (or re-raises really, since it would be half my stack), how easy is it to find a fold? It's hard for him to have QQ, he could have JJ or KK, which we are essentially flipping against, and of course he could have AA and we are in bad shape. Does he ever have any AJ+ or KQ+ or more middling pairs like 88 or 10s there? I guess this deep in the tourney for the huge pay jumps, I might have been able to get away from the AsQs.

If he slow plays, the flop came 8cKd6h. Probably a flop that would have slowed me down and could be folded if bet because my Q pair would be no good and my flush is out, although some backdoor nuts straight opportunities open. Turn comes 2c and the river 8d, but I imagine all the chips would have been in after the flop if no one folded.

Looking forward to any input you might have on this spot.

- Sundizzel

 

[7CardKillR]

No this is a pretty easy Jam with 19 bigs. which is very probably best for your situation. (better players can not out play you.)GTO its a raise (2.25bb) at this stack and position.

 

[mike1113]

This is just an unlucky cooler, you could have raised to a smaller size but you should only raise small in that spot if you can fold to a jam. I don't know about you but I don't know if I could fold AQs in that spot. Just a cooler imo

 

[ZenGreen]

Its just a blunder casue he AA, if he flipped KQ or something, I have to tell myself this stuff all the time too. I guess its jsut amazing how many times in crucial moments, they actually have it, You probably did 15 other times during the MTT and it went like it should. and of course this one time (dont mind me Im start to project my own anger when this happens to me and then Im going well I guess i should of folded JJ (or whatever there) and you know you shouldnt)

I dunno Im busting too many mtts lately with moves just like this and start thinking about the min raise deal and then we are playing hit and shove cause the minute you bluff, they got it. THE STUFF STARTS WORKING ON MY PSYCHE!!! I mean one of these 19bb jams have got to hold up sometime dont they LOL

 

[Sidetracked]

It is definitely unlucky, but I don't really think shoving 19 BBs with AQs is bad.

 

[fundiver199]

With 19BB the more GTO line is to minraise or perhaps go something like 2,2BB and then fold part of your range to a large 3-bet or rejam. Unfortunately though AQs is one of those hands, that are just to strong to fold in this scenario, so the result would have ended up being the same.

In general this is just, how the end of a big tournament usually plays out. The player lucky enough to pick up AA, when someone else also has a premium hand, and then get his hold, will proceed to the final table (most likely), while the unlucky guy goes out. That is really all, there is to it, and if you continue to play long enough, then eventually you will also be the guy with AA, when someone else picks up AQs.

So dont waste any sleep over this. At the end of the day you still increased your bankroll substantially originating from a free ticket, and almost certainly you got lucky in a number of spots to make it that far. This was just the time, where your luck ran out, where for most other people in the tournament it ran out much sooner.

 

[fundiver199]

The above is my reply based on, how I would have played the hand in real time. However since you gave quite a bit of information, we can also plug the hand into ICMizer and get something very close to the exact NASH solution. I have a subscribtion to the program, but even as a non-subscriber they give you a free calculation per day, so you can also do this yourself, next time you have a similar question.

I gave the remaining 8 players an average stack of 25BB and selected "Sunday Million" as the payout structure. This should be close enough, since Sunday Million is another very large MTT. If Hero min-raise from HJ and face a SB jam with the quoted stack sizes, then Hero calling range is 88+, AQ+. So without a specific read on SB you can not get away from AQs in this situation, and my instinctive reaction was correct.

 

[sundizzel]

The above is my reply based on, how I would have played the hand in real time. However since you gave quite a bit of information, we can also plug the hand into ICMizer and get something very close to the exact NASH solution. I have a subscribtion to the program, but even as a non-subscriber they give you a free calculation per day, so you can also do this yourself, next time you have a similar question.

I gave the remaining 8 players an average stack of 25BB and selected "Sunday Million" as the payout structure. This should be close enough, since Sunday Million is another very large MTT. If Hero min-raise from HJ and face a SB jam with the quoted stack sizes, then Hero calling range is 88+, AQ+. So without a specific read on SB you can not get away from AQs in this situation, and my instinctive reaction was correct.

Thanks, Fundiver and others for the input! I was hoping someone might punch the info into some solver, since I don't currently have access to one. I also didn't know ICMizer allows one free calculation per day, so I'll take advantage of that moving forward. Cheers!

- Sundizzel

 

[Alizona]

Good thread, sorry for your loss.

I am in a similar situation as you - I am doing the Zero-To-Hero Challenge on multiple sites myself via freeroll winnings and then grinding it up from there.

I love to hear success stories,I was also able to score myself a ticket into a larger event and then made a very deep run in it like you did... while I totally feel your pain of the "close but no cigar" ending, I also understand what an accomplishment it is overall. Well played and better luck!!

 

[sundizzel]

Good thread, sorry for your loss.

I am in a similar situation as you - I am doing the Zero-To-Hero Challenge on multiple sites myself via freeroll winnings and then grinding it up from there.

I love to hear success stories,I was also able to score myself a ticket into a larger event and then made a very deep run in it like you did... while I totally feel your pain of the "close but no cigar" ending, I also understand what an accomplishment it is overall. Well played and better luck!!

Haha, thanks and congratulations right back at you! It was interesting how, even though I obviously wanted to go deeper, I was so stoked on how big of a win it was for me and extremely grateful for both the opportunity to play the tournament and just the fact that I cashed it.

It made me think about how, if I continue to grind and find some success at poker, I don't want to lose that sense of wonder and accomplishment from getting deep into a high-value tournament, regardless of whether I win or make the final table. Over time, you, of course, become desensitized to that which becomes more commonplace, but I will try to appreciate any result as much as I did this one. Cheers, and good luck to you in your future tourneys!

- Sundizzel

 

[SoulMan87]

I think with AQs you should just raise to ~3BB in this spot. If someone will call it's more likely you have position. If someone go allin - you call. In this case I would say it was'nt massive blunder, just inaccuracy, because AA should go allin without position, and then nothing change. But if he decided to slowplay, you can run after having continuation bet called.