I first look at the first two actions the villain took. Yes this is a bounty so actions can mean other things than reality more often since they have you covered but I dont think we should gloss over them. They limp pre. Have they been limping a lot or not much? If its a lot then it means little but if they dont limp much I would start off by ranging them with hands a lot of players like to limp which are small pocket pairs.
Second action is a pot sized bet on the flop. This could easily be a bluff of course but players will do this when they flop a big hand like 2 pair or stronger and the board has two to a suit. They get worried already and want to protect what they have. Right here I will say I would have just folded and moved on since there are few turn cards I like here unless I want to rep hearts or the 5 comes as it does in this hand. The pot sized flop bet with the limp pre already has me thinking 33 as decent possibility.
Moving on to the turn all the sudden the villain checks. I dont think they check here a lot if they have been bluffing the hand unless they are giving up (which they clearly didnt in this hand). A check like this can fall in line with a hand like 33 since now there is little to protect as villain has near nuts now. Now they are too worried to bet and make you fold that they check hoping you lead river as a bluff or wind up having something.
I do agree that the river does not make sense for 33 unless they are praying you have clubs. I agree with you though that if you had something most players in your shoes would lead out for value so it does make villains bet seem negative expectation. The only thing I could think that could be going through villains mind here is that you either have something here or you have nothing and they know you called a flop pot sized bet so Im still thinking they have it and are praying that you call. They might figure you are bluff catching with a little something and obviously a huge bet like this could be perceived as a bluff. Could be a bluff, doubt J10 does this with this texture but possible. I wouldnt get to this point in the hand since I would fold on the flop but if I found myself here Id not be loving it. Still think I would fold and that might be way way too tight but I think thats what I would do if I got to this spot.
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