This is a discussion on $16.50 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Bounty: PKO 16.50 Deep Stacks within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/724NDOIkb
What do you think of this hand?
I believe that his hands of value many times I would bet only pot for me to call, I
I believe that his hands of value many times I would bet only pot for me to call, I do not see him doing all in with a full house, since very few of my hands can pay that bet. It is also true that at these levels 90% of the players would come out betting the river with the 5, so for him I never have the 5 and I can only have the T many times so I do not see badly his attempt to bluff the river. I await your opinions
I first look at the first two actions the villain took. Yes this is a bounty so actions can mean other things than reality more often since they have you covered but I dont think we should gloss over them. They limp pre. Have they been limping a lot or not much? If its a lot then it means little but if they dont limp much I would start off by ranging them with hands a lot of players like to limp which are small pocket pairs.
Second action is a pot sized bet on the flop. This could easily be a bluff of course but players will do this when they flop a big hand like 2 pair or stronger and the board has two to a suit. They get worried already and want to protect what they have. Right here I will say I would have just folded and moved on since there are few turn cards I like here unless I want to rep hearts or the 5 comes as it does in this hand. The pot sized flop bet with the limp pre already has me thinking 33 as decent possibility.
Moving on to the turn all the sudden the villain checks. I dont think they check here a lot if they have been bluffing the hand unless they are giving up (which they clearly didnt in this hand). A check like this can fall in line with a hand like 33 since now there is little to protect as villain has near nuts now. Now they are too worried to bet and make you fold that they check hoping you lead river as a bluff or wind up having something.
I do agree that the river does not make sense for 33 unless they are praying you have clubs. I agree with you though that if you had something most players in your shoes would lead out for value so it does make villains bet seem negative expectation. The only thing I could think that could be going through villains mind here is that you either have something here or you have nothing and they know you called a flop pot sized bet so Im still thinking they have it and are praying that you call. They might figure you are bluff catching with a little something and obviously a huge bet like this could be perceived as a bluff. Could be a bluff, doubt J10 does this with this texture but possible. I wouldnt get to this point in the hand since I would fold on the flop but if I found myself here Id not be loving it. Still think I would fold and that might be way way too tight but I think thats what I would do if I got to this spot.
re: Poker & $16.50 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Bounty: PKO 16.50 Deep Stacks
Obviously happy to see a free flop with garbage like this.
I would also just fold now. Even though you hit a piece of the board, you still have a really bad hand, and when he bet full pot, you are quickly getting sucked into playing a large pot of out position with garbage. The way, I look at this kind of situation is, that if someone had raised preflop, I would never have continued, and then there is no reason, why I should put chips in the pot, just because they made a silly limp and I hit some small piece of the board.
Obviously the gin card for you. I think, there is even an argument for leading now, since he might check back his TX and draws on the paired board. But checking to him is not bad either, especially when he bet so large on the flop.
I would bet for value to try and get a crying call from his TX. I am not sure, what you are trying to achieve by checking. He is probably a fish, since good players rarely limp, and against fish you typically just want to keep the game simple and bet your strong hands for value.
As played I am not loving it, when he moves all in. I think, this smells like a full house to be honest with you. On the flop he pots it for value and protection, because there is a flushdraw on the board. On the turn he fill up, so now he is not worried about a flush, and he check back to induce a river bet for you. And when he fail to get that, he still moves all-in, because "LOL I have the nuts". Fish are not thinking logically about, what your range look like, and which betsize create max value against that range. They are just looking at the board and their own two cards.
And even if he is thinking about your range (level 2 thinker), he dont need to risk his entire stack to get you to fold marginal holdings. He can bet like 2/3 pot and still get a solid amount of folds. So why move all in for 3 times the pot and give himself a terrible risk-reward on his bluff?
There is an old saying "never go broke in a limped pot", and I think, it applied here. Yes you have trips, but there are still a fair amount of hands, you potentially lose to, and the SPR on the flop was around 10, which is very deep for a tournament hand. So as played I would fold now and live to fight another day. But I would never have gotten in this situation, since I would have folded on the flop, and if I somehow failed to do that, I would have bet the turn or bet the river.