$16.5 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Bounty Turbo: Facing a river overbet with nut flush on paired board 167BB deep

[fundiver199]

$16.5 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Bounty Turbo: Facing a river overbet with nut flush on paired board 167BB deep

This was the second hand in todays 16,5$ "hotter", a turbo PKO on pokerstars. Had never played with this opponent before, so no HUD-data or other reads. He was a total unknown. We both had exactly the same stack, so we would both win 3,75$ by knocking the other one out. Do you make the call on the river, and any comments about the earlier streets?

PokerStars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 4,711 (157 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 4,996 (167 bb)
MP: 4,996 (167 bb)
MP+1: 5,000 (167 bb)
LP: 5,358 (179 bb)
CO: 4,996 (167 bb)
BU: 4,981 (166 bb)
SB: 4,966 (166 bb)
BB: 4,996 (167 bb)

Pre-Flop: (81) Hero is UTG+1 with A♠ 8♠
1 fold, Hero raises to 90, 6 players fold, BB calls 60

Flop: (231) 9♠ J♠ A♥ (2 players)
BB bets 116, Hero calls 116

Turn: (463) T♦ (2 players)
BB bets 232, Hero calls 232

River: (927) T♠ (2 players)
BB bets 4,554 (all-in), Hero?

 

[auslender72]

first l must say that l am not grinder, l play for fun.
I think you lost the lead on the flop. What kind of flop did you expect ?
you open utg +1 with A8s and this flop hits you. top par with nuts flesh drow. only reason that l dont rereise the flop is making trap.
anyway l will pay the river, you have chanse to win only full or KQs can beat your cards
yes you can be behid after river but mistake on flop is bigger than call or fold decision

 

[Joe]

The BB's username wasn't Schreibi1982 was it?! :laugh:

I generally only offer advice to beginners because despite starting to get some good results, I know I'm nowhere near the level required to give sound, reliable input for stake levels beyond freerolls & micros.

With that disclaimer being said, I think we can justify both calling and folding here, fairly easily.

We've invested less than 10% of our stack so if we let it go it's not the end of the world. Being only hand #2 there is of course plenty of time to wait for cleaner spots.

We know the BB is likely to be defending pretty wide here, but sadly the hands I'd be most worried about (A,10 J,10 10,9) are all in their range. I guess 99 and JJ might flat preflop too..

To me their line tallies with those holdings, up until the river jam.

The only two reasons I can think for a boat open-jamming the river is either a) they'd put you on a flush draw and reckon you'll pay or b) as a double bluff- betting big to look weak when actually strong.

KsQs would be pretty disgusting.

What hands beat us? AA (1), JJ (3), 1010 (1), 99 (3), A10 (4), KsQs (1), J10 (6), 109 (6)...

Twenty five sounds like a lot of combinations, but I do feel like at least a couple of them can be discounted based on the preflop flat.

I'm pretty stumped!

Especially with no previous data or knowledge of the player.

Folding is going to be the safe, prudent play here.

I'd be super tempted to call in the moment though, that's for sure!


This is melting my brain just thinking about it, must have been real rough for you at the time.

I'm honestly really struggling to decide whether I fold or call but in the end I think I hero and pay off their J10 or 109, hoping they're going wild with some kind of 2p, trips or smaller flush..? :dontknow:

Who am I kidding? It's Stars!

Course it was KsQs!! :laugh:

Dying to know what you did, please put me out of my misery via PM if you're not ready to announce the outcome in thread yet.

Epic spot, thanks for posting! :icon_thum

 

[1sunchin]

You can be beat by villain's 99,TT,JJ,AA,9T,TJ,TA,KQ spades. Number of all his winning hands in various combinations is 23 on my mind.
You can beat his any 2 spades(flush), any KQ(except spades) and any 78(straight). Number of his loosing hands is 49.
Push with all other his hands is bluff.

Your EV vs villain 2/1, but if you except some villain's hands like 27,38, etc and 78 notsuited your EV nearly equal with villain's one.

So even if you invested 15BB in pot before river, you not need to risk 150BB in this spot on my mind.

 

[Satiivas]

This was the second hand in todays 16,5$ "hotter", a turbo PKO on Pokerstars. Had never played with this opponent before, so no HUD-data or other reads. He was a total unknown. We both had exactly the same stack, so we would both win 3,75$ by knocking the other one out. Do you make the call on the river, and any comments about the earlier streets?

PokerStars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 4,711 (157 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 4,996 (167 bb)
MP: 4,996 (167 bb)
MP+1: 5,000 (167 bb)
LP: 5,358 (179 bb)
CO: 4,996 (167 bb)
BU: 4,981 (166 bb)
SB: 4,966 (166 bb)
BB: 4,996 (167 bb)

Pre-Flop: (81) Hero is UTG+1 with A♠ 8♠
1 fold, Hero raises to 90, 6 players fold, BB calls 60

Flop: (231) 9♠ J♠ A♥ (2 players)
BB bets 116, Hero calls 116

Turn: (463) T♦ (2 players)
BB bets 232, Hero calls 232

River: (927) T♠ (2 players)
BB bets 4,554 (all-in), Hero?

I would make the call.
I feel, that he is definitely capable of value betting worse hands like Tx, KQ, smaller flushes given the passive line you took on the flop and after. You could easily have Ax type of hand and the huge overshove really does not feel like a boat to me.
If I'm not correct, then GG villain, have fun winning small pots with your strong hands in the future.

 

[300HPGOD]

Great hand to post, it is very similar to the one you posted a week or so ago regarding the trip jacks being overbet jammed on by a boat. This hand feels like that one but there are 2 key differences imo. First, in this hand you are going against the BB and not an UTG raiser so their defend range is/should be much wider than the UTG raise range of the previous hand. Plus in this hand the turn bet sizing is half pot where last hand it was around full pot. Those two point to a much greater possibility of a bluff than the previous hand but I am still not sold this is a bluff by the villain. This is a 16.50 buy in so there should be some competency here from our opponents. They should be able to see that the flush came in and they clearly dont have the A but they could have the nut flush in reality with the Straight flush. I dont think villain is doing this with less than a flush. I dont think trips does this. Trips or a straight will bet here but they wouldnt make a bet that you would only call if you are killing them. Therefore its a worse flush, a boat, or the killer KQ spades. We also have to think about what villain thinks we may have. We may or may not raise a flush draw here on the flop in our shoes. I dont mind that you didnt raise the flop but you could have and definitely some players would. Is that enough for villain to think we never have a flush here? I doubt it but maybe. Otherwise we played the hand like we had a flush draw and then it comes in and villain still fires huge.

In the end Id say villain has a good idea of what you have and they are either jamming t value a hand that is tough to fold or are really tricky and think since the board paired you might be scared of your flush. The latter is much rarer and most players dont try to get players to fold Ace high flushes even in 16.50 tourneys. There are some things that will show up here that we beat like a player over valuing a hand like 67 of spades but I think its more likely we are beat so Im folding here. As I said though, I am much closer to calling this one than I am the last hand you posted similar to this.

As far as the hand played, this early with this small of an ante and UTG +1 I think I am folding A8 suited. It is a nice hand to play deep since we can make the nuts but its also too early to know about 3 betting from villains and we dont really want to get 3 bet here. I think a fold is better but also dont think opening is bad either. On the flop I think you can go either way. I would put the villain Ax heavy that would be afraid of a check behind if you check so I see just calling since we are behind most aces but raising is interesting too and allows us to win more when the flush does come in. I can see it either way. Turn is a call as folding with still top pair and a draw is crazy and raising at that point with one card to come makes little sense to me as well. Interested to see the outcome

 

[Satiivas]

Great hand to post, it is very similar to the one you posted a week or so ago regarding the trip jacks being overbet jammed on by a boat. This hand feels like that one but there are 2 key differences imo. First, in this hand you are going against the BB and not an UTG raiser so their defend range is/should be much wider than the UTG raise range of the previous hand. Plus in this hand the turn bet sizing is half pot where last hand it was around full pot. Those two point to a much greater possibility of a bluff than the previous hand but I am still not sold this is a bluff by the villain. This is a 16.50 buy in so there should be some competency here from our opponents. They should be able to see that the flush came in and they clearly dont have the A but they could have the nut flush in reality with the Straight flush. I dont think villain is doing this with less than a flush. I dont think trips does this. Trips or a straight will bet here but they wouldnt make a bet that you would only call if you are killing them. Therefore its a worse flush, a boat, or the killer KQ spades. We also have to think about what villain thinks we may have. We may or may not raise a flush draw here on the flop in our shoes. I dont mind that you didnt raise the flop but you could have and definitely some players would. Is that enough for villain to think we never have a flush here? I doubt it but maybe. Otherwise we played the hand like we had a flush draw and then it comes in and villain still fires huge.

In the end Id say villain has a good idea of what you have and they are either jamming t value a hand that is tough to fold or are really tricky and think since the board paired you might be scared of your flush. The latter is much rarer and most players dont try to get players to fold Ace high flushes even in 16.50 tourneys. There are some things that will show up here that we beat like a player over valuing a hand like 67 of spades but I think its more likely we are beat so Im folding here. As I said though, I am much closer to calling this one than I am the last hand you posted similar to this.

As far as the hand played, this early with this small of an ante and UTG +1 I think I am folding A8 suited. It is a nice hand to play deep since we can make the nuts but its also too early to know about 3 betting from villains and we dont really want to get 3 bet here. I think a fold is better but also dont think opening is bad either. On the flop I think you can go either way. I would put the villain Ax heavy that would be afraid of a check behind if you check so I see just calling since we are behind most aces but raising is interesting too and allows us to win more when the flush does come in. I can see it either way. Turn is a call as folding with still top pair and a draw is crazy and raising at that point with one card to come makes little sense to me as well. Interested to see the outcome

I would like to argue with you on few points you made, friendly of course.

"This is a 16.50 buy in so there should be some competency here from our opponents."

Definitely no. After playing the Sunday Million anniversary tournament in February, I am convinced, that there are people who approach poker the same way as they approach slot machines in every buy-in level. Sure, I agree 100%, that there are less bad people the higher you go, but 16.50 is even not that much and there are still tons of awful players, who simply earn enough elsewhere to support their playing at these stakes.


"In the end Id say villain has a good idea of what you have"

Does he though? What makes it more likely in your opinion, that villain puts Fundiver on a FD not AK type of hand for example?

But in any case, I agree completely, that it's a really fun hand and I would love to hear the results soon!

 

[300HPGOD]

I would like to argue with you on few points you made, friendly of course.

"This is a 16.50 buy in so there should be some competency here from our opponents."

Definitely no. After playing the Sunday Million anniversary tournament in February, I am convinced, that there are people who approach poker the same way as they approach slot machines in every buy-in level. Sure, I agree 100%, that there are less bad people the higher you go, but 16.50 is even not that much and there are still tons of awful players, who simply earn enough elsewhere to support their playing at these stakes.


"In the end Id say villain has a good idea of what you have"

Does he though? What makes it more likely in your opinion, that villain puts Fundiver on a FD not AK type of hand for example?

But in any case, I agree completely, that it's a really fun hand and I would love to hear the results soon!

You probably have more experience than I do in 16.50 tourneys but I think people play better in them than you think. There are always idiots but just as you cant assume all villains are good you cant assume all are idiots either. We know nothing about the villain since it is early. In the long run it is much better to assume the person you are playing against knows something rather than always dismissing them as bad. Even at 16.50 level, if this player really does not know what they are doing they will burn through their money fast enough that they wont be around so law of averages I think would say this player is at least competent (competent does not mean expert it just means they are thinking players (good or bad thinking)). We can disgaree on that because with what we know about villain at this point in the hand your guess is as good as mine.

As far as why does villain not think its AK... why would villain jam this large of a stack to win something so small relative to the stacks they had to start the hand if he thinks his villain has something they will just fold here. Does villain expect their opponents to be calling off with one pair hands here? I highly doubt that so my guess is when villain makes this large of a bet they want to be called (That doesnt mean they couldnt have a smaller flush but they beat one pair and know one pair is folding and they would win relatively nothing with a fold on this river). The bets on the flop and turn are not enough of a gain to risk their stack with a bluff this big. PLus why wouldnt villain just bet pot or a little over pot if they were bluffing instead of every chip they had? They are doing this most likely for max value and you are not trying for ultimate max value against AK here. You would be betting an amount that AK would call with even though the board is paired and flush and straights are out there. That amount in no way is 5x overbet the pot.

 

[Satiivas]

You probably have more experience than I do in 16.50 tourneys but I think people play better in them than you think. There are always idiots but just as you cant assume all villains are good you cant assume all are idiots either. We know nothing about the villain since it is early. In the long run it is much better to assume the person you are playing against knows something rather than always dismissing them as bad. Even at 16.50 level, if this player really does not know what they are doing they will burn through their money fast enough that they wont be around so law of averages I think would say this player is at least competent (competent does not mean expert it just means they are thinking players (good or bad thinking)). We can disgaree on that because with what we know about villain at this point in the hand your guess is as good as mine.

As far as why does villain not think its AK... why would villain jam this large of a stack to win something so small relative to the stacks they had to start the hand if he thinks his villain has something they will just fold here. Does villain expect their opponents to be calling off with one pair hands here? I highly doubt that so my guess is when villain makes this large of a bet they want to be called (That doesnt mean they couldnt have a smaller flush but they beat one pair and know one pair is folding and they would win relatively nothing with a fold on this river). The bets on the flop and turn are not enough of a gain to risk their stack with a bluff this big. PLus why wouldnt villain just bet pot or a little over pot if they were bluffing instead of every chip they had? They are doing this most likely for max value and you are not trying for ultimate max value against AK here. You would be betting an amount that AK would call with even though the board is paired and flush and straights are out there. That amount in no way is 5x overbet the pot.

I agree. Until further information, all players are Schrödinger villains for sure! They are bad and amazing at the same time.

One bit of info comes on the flop though: why would BB lead into UTG PF aggressor on AJ9 board? This question is rhetorical and not at the same time: I see this as a really weird play and I would immediately mark the villain as a fun player, but maybe it's some higher level solver strategy I am too dumb to understand? The points you made all make sense of course, but after the flop lead, I feel he is definitely capable of both value-betting worse and simply overplaying his hand.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the inputs and lots of great discussion. It seem like, everyone wants to hear the results, so I am going to share them as well as my own thoughts on the hand now:

Preflop
With deep stacks I typically open all suited aces from all positions. This is in part something, I learned from working with PokerSnowie, since the program tend to prefer suited aces and suited broadways over small pairs. You do need to be confident in your postflop game though, since top pair meh kicker situations often require some "feel" as to, how far you take them. Its a classic beginner mistake to take these hands to far and not be able to fold them, and then its certainly better to just fold them pre in a sitaution like this.

Flop
I think, Satiivas is spot on is saying, that this donk bet makes no sense given the board texture, so even without any other reads we are almost certainly dealing with a "fun" player here. I think, folding is obviously not an option, since we have both a weak top pair (bluff catcher) and a draw to the nuts, and either of that would be enough to continue. There is some merit to raise small to build a big pot against dominated draws. I do think, we are behind to his made hands though, and that is clearly an argument for not raising. I dont think, even a "fun" player is leading out with A5 or A7. He might also 3-bet us with nut hands like sets and 2 pair, and thats not a great situation for us. So all in all for me the best play here is to just call.

Turn
This is probably the easiest decision in the hand. Folding is to tight, raising is an overplay, so nothing to do other than press "call" again.

River
This is of course the interesting one and the reason, I shared the hand. I made the nut flush, but the board is paired, and he is clearly saying, he has a boat or maybe even the straight flush. I honestly dont know, if we can make a long term profitable call here. I do think, some of the boats are rather unlikely though, like JT or T9, because why would those hands lead the flop. So my main concern here was JJ, 99 and maybe AT. It was a very strange line though, so could he possibly be overplaying a smaller flush or a straight, or be doing something totally weird? After using most of my time bank and almost folding, a small devil inside told me to call, and the result can be seen here:

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

 

[Satiivas]

Thanks for the inputs and lots of great discussion. It seem like, everyone wants to hear the results, so I am going to share them as well as my own thoughts on the hand now:

Preflop
With deep stacks I typically open all suited aces from all positions. This is in part something, I learned from working with PokerSnowie, since the program tend to prefer suited aces and suited broadways over small pairs. You do need to be confident in your postflop game though, since top pair meh kicker situations often require some "feel" as to, how far you take them. Its a classic beginner mistake to take these hands to far and not be able to fold them, and then its certainly better to just fold them pre in a sitaution like this.

Flop
I think, Satiivas is spot on is saying, that this donk bet makes no sense given the board texture, so even without any other reads we are almost certainly dealing with a "fun" player here. I think, folding is obviously not an option, since we have both a weak top pair (bluff catcher) and a draw to the nuts, and either of that would be enough to continue. There is some merit to raise small to build a big pot against dominated draws. I do think, we are behind to his made hands though, and that is clearly an argument for not raising. I dont think, even a "fun" player is leading out with A5 or A7. He might also 3-bet us with nut hands like sets and 2 pair, and thats not a great situation for us. So all in all for me the best play here is to just call.

Turn
This is probably the easiest decision in the hand. Folding is to tight, raising is an overplay, so nothing to do other than press "call" again.

River
This is of course the interesting one and the reason, I shared the hand. I made the nut flush, but the board is paired, and he is clearly saying, he has a boat or maybe even the straight flush. I honestly dont know, if we can make a long term profitable call here. I do think, some of the boats are rather unlikely though, like JT or T9, because why would those hands lead the flop. So my main concern here was JJ, 99 and maybe AT. It was a very strange line though, so could he possibly be overplaying a smaller flush or a straight, or be doing something totally weird? After using most of my time bank and almost folding, a small devil inside told me to call, and the result can be seen here:

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

I say good call! The result is kind of what I was expecting.

 

[Joe]

I say good call! The result is kind of what I was expecting.

What they said. :dito:

(but for me hoping rather than expecting) :laugh:

 

[theANMATOR]

Vomit a little in my mouth - wash it down with something alcoholic - expend 3/4 of my time bank - and finally make the call - the donk lead is just OFF - and that is what makes me call. Although - a boat is not unrealistic. I was expecting J/T to show up, or possibly A/T.

 

[easy play]

Huge Overbet on the River. Don't see many bluffs in this range. Might have folded this one.

One thing to consider is that we under represented our hand by just calling. So Nut flush is good call if BB bet with lower flushes.