I have been losing a lot of strange hands lately and I’m trying to figure out why. I know that sometimes we are just going to lose but it seems variance has been kicking my butt lately. We’re ITM and laddering up. This hand would have put me in the top 20 with around 100 players left.



Network - 4000/8000 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (UTG): 36 BB
UTG+1: 40.17 BB
MP: 45.03 BB
MP+1: 10.85 BB
MP+2: 22.07 BB
CO: 9.36 BB
BTN: 28.05 BB
SB: 23.46 BB
BB: 15.23 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Jc Tc
Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, MP raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Flop : (16.62 BB, 2 players) 9s Qs 5h
Hero checks, MP bets 8.31 BB, Hero calls 8.31 BB

Turn : (33.25 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero bets 20.56 BB and is all-in, MP calls 20.56 BB

River : (74.37 BB, 2 players) 4s

Hero shows Jc Tc (Straight, King High)
(Pre 39%, Flop 29%, Turn 80%)

MP shows Ks As (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 61%, Flop 71%, Turn 20%)

MP wins 74.37 BB

Should I have considered the flush draw more before jamming on the turn? It is hard to build a big stack like that isn’t it?

You should have folded before the flop, when the action first got to you. With short stacks there is no room for fancy play like opening a suited connector UTG at a full ring table. You should also have folded to his 3-bet.

Postflop I would have check-jammed the flop. When you connect, and the SPR is less than 2, you kind of have to just go with it and hope the best. AsKs would of course have snap called, but he can have some hands like suited wheel aces, that he is bluffing with, and that he can not call off.

As played you got it in good on the turn, and that is the amount of control, we have in this game. As Jon Poker would have said: Would you even have shared the hand, if the river card had been a non spade, and you won the hand? Probably not. "Getting kicked in the butt by variance" is not something, we can do anything about. So just suck it up and have sufficient bankroll and patience.

here initially on preflop it was not necessary to equalize its 3 bet. single-match bundles play well with deep stacks. moreover, you were out of position and even in the 3 bet pot.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

You should have folded before the flop, when the action first got to you. With short stacks there is no room for fancy play like opening a suited connector UTG at a full ring table. You should also have folded to his 3-bet.

36bb is not short stacked, I'm fine with the pre-flop open. We must call his 3bet sometimes to protect our range, let's say this time is good and you get 2:1 pot odds - fine.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

Postflop I would have check-jammed the flop. When you connect, and the SPR is less than 2, you kind of have to just go with it and hope the best.

On the flop we have 29bb behind with 16bb in the pot and 40% (1.5:1) against a linear range 99+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AQo+, KQo. We get 3:1 pot odds, plenty to make the call. We have good odds even against the tightest range QQ+, 99, AQs+, AQo which gives us 2:1.

On the turn we have 92% against the tightest range we do not shove we want to check-raise. This also leaves the door open to a tight fold on the river if they don't bet the turn (likely when they have sets, 2 pairs sometimes AK) and the flush completes.

Originally Posted by JoeKampman

I have been losing a lot of strange hands lately and I’m trying to figure out why. I know that sometimes we are just going to lose but it seems variance has been kicking my butt lately. We’re ITM and laddering up. This hand would have put me in the top 20 with around 100 players left.



Network - 4000/8000 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (UTG): 36 BB
UTG+1: 40.17 BB
MP: 45.03 BB
MP+1: 10.85 BB
MP+2: 22.07 BB
CO: 9.36 BB
BTN: 28.05 BB
SB: 23.46 BB
BB: 15.23 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Jc Tc
Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, MP raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Flop : (16.62 BB, 2 players) 9s Qs 5h
Hero checks, MP bets 8.31 BB, Hero calls 8.31 BB

Turn : (33.25 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero bets 20.56 BB and is all-in, MP calls 20.56 BB

River : (74.37 BB, 2 players) 4s

Hero shows Jc Tc (Straight, King High)
(Pre 39%, Flop 29%, Turn 80%)

MP shows Ks As (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 61%, Flop 71%, Turn 20%)

MP wins 74.37 BB

Should I have considered the flush draw more before jamming on the turn? It is hard to build a big stack like that isn’t it?

Thank you for posting

Stack preservation is important for deep runs. We need to be aware of V tendencies when considering UTG tournament raises. We want to raise with hands that dominate calling ranges. Do you think JT has that quality. Even if you make top pair suck outs are common.

Hope this helps