$15 NLHE STT: KK flop vs reg

[FastandFurious]

poker stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15.00/t30.00 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 1336294
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t1670.00 55.67 BBs - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 12, AF: 0.7, hands: 96
BB: t1770.00 59 BBs - VPIP: 10, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 96
UTG: t1688.00 56.27 BBs - VPIP: 11, PFR: 9, 3B: 4, AF: 4.4, Hands: 1299
UTG+1: t1530.00 51 BBs - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 6, AF: 4.1, Hands: 2369
UTG+2: t1470.00 49 BBs - VPIP: 9, PFR: 8, 3B: 4, AF: 1.5, Hands: 381
MP1: t1500.00 50 BBs - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 5.9, Hands: 2262
MP2: t1212.00 40.40 BBs - VPIP: 24, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 1.8, Hands: 724
CO: t1510.00 50.33 BBs - VPIP: 17, PFR: 8, 3B: 1, AF: 2.3, Hands: 199
Hero (BTN): t1150.00 38.33 BBs - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 2.9, Hands: 84028

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN with K :diamond: K :spade:
3 folds, MP1 calls t30, 2 folds, Hero raises to t120, 2 folds, MP1 calls t90

Flop: (t285) J :diamond: 9 :diamond: 5 :diamond: (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t190.00, MP1 raises to t420, Hero ??

Vs a very solid reg.. 18%ROI ave. BI $15 15k examples.. hmm to be jealous about ..

Anyway, known reg and I believe one of his first check-raise vs my cbet .. what's ur play?

 

[silverfox432]

Puke...fold....

not worth it you only have a small amount invested ... you have a shoving stack left, I'd wait

 

[OzExorcist]

It's the limp-call preflop that's doing my head in - it just makes it so much harder for this to be top pair or something else of that nature. Small to medium pairs are the most obvious candidate.

If we shove we mostly get called by better but we've got 11 outs against a set and we pick up a decent sized pot if villain folds... which I think he'll do a decent amount of the time given how bluffable this board is and how likely it is that we've either missed completely or will consider laying down something like what we have. I figure a medium pair maybe with a diamond of its own or something like a pair and a draw could be turning their hand into a bluff here.

We're actually getting a really good price to draw (assuming our flush outs are good) but if we flat almost half our stack will be in so we may as well have just shoved to ensure we see both cards to come.

...and as pointed out above if we fold it's still early and we have plenty of play left.

Call me a spewtard but I think I shove. We have outs against sets and I think we get a reasonable number of folds as well as the occasional call from a hand we have crushed.

 

[WiZZiM]

You should probably refine those searches you are doing, I'm not saying anything is impossible, but having an 18% ROI at the $15 games on stars is pretty much impossible over a long sample.

As for the hand there is no way i'm putting out like nearly half of our stack and folding on this flop.

 

[FastandFurious]

You should probably refine those searches you are doing, I'm not saying anything is impossible, but having an 18% ROI at the $15 games on stars is pretty much impossible over a long sample..

I believe you but it's not going to be far off I guess .. I just took it from sharkscope .. got only 5 daily searches and not sure if I could do those advanced searches without membership..

He also plays knockout SnG and I noticed those solid players obtain a slighlty higher ROI compared to SnG.. Anyway, you can checked yourself if you like: lambonali ..I think it's fine to post his name here.. if not just tell me and I'll delete it ..

 

[Pascal-lf]

Not folding. all you can eat

 

[only_bridge]

I do not really understand this hand.
Why would a good reg ever limp in from MP, and then call a raise OOP. And then re-raise that amount on that flop.
I'd probably just push all-in and see what happens just out of curiousity.

 

[FastandFurious]

I do not really understand this hand.
Why would a good reg ever limp in from MP, and then call a raise OOP. And then re-raise that amount on that flop.
I'd probably just push all-in and see what happens just out of curiousity.

One who is set-mining incorrectly if you follow the 5% rule strictly.. Cuz he showed me 99..

 

[Poker Orifice]

I do not really understand this hand.
Why would a good reg ever limp in from MP, and then call a raise OOP. And then re-raise that amount on that flop.
I'd probably just push all-in and see what happens just out of curiousity.

This would be my thinking here ^ exactly.... with a wtf thrown in.

 

[Poker Orifice]

I believe you but it's not going to be far off I guess .. I just took it from sharkscope .. got only 5 daily searches and not sure if I could do those advanced searches without membership..

He also plays knockout SnG and I noticed those solid players obtain a slighlty higher ROI compared to SnG.. Anyway, you can checked yourself if you like: lambonali ..I think it's fine to post his name here.. if not just tell me and I'll delete it ..

'unfiltered' sng stats - 16,354 games, roi +12% (avg. bi $16.57)

 

[ben_rhyno]

'unfiltered' sng stats - 16,354 games, roi +12% (avg. bi $16.57)

Solid Winner then.

I think I am shoving here. Plenty of outs vs a set, only crushed by made nut flushes or AdAx.

 

[Pascal-lf]

Take a note

 

[only_bridge]

One who is set-mining incorrectly if you follow the 5% rule strictly.. Cuz he showed me 99..

So he put you on a big pair, and thought you wouldnt be able to fold it.

 

[FreeRollWannabe]

I would have shoved, the worst hand that he could have that you would see, would be Ad / Kx or Qx.

I would guess he has a smaller pocket pair, he putting you on AK or high cards like that (Because when someone has a pocket pair there is a 70% chance that pocket pair is the only pocket pair. Because he has a pocket pair he would more than likely assume you Don't have a pocket pair, and because you raised pre flop he would put you on two big cards.)

I would assume one of his paired cards is a Diamond, figuring as its just you and him, if he has a diamond he would more than likely assume you don't have a diamond. So even if you do happen to have a pocket pair that's higher, or you pair one of your big cards, he still has outs.

So I would put his hand on 10d/10x or 8d/8x, he could also have pocket 9s, but if he did he played it wrong by re-raising you on the flop, if he tripped up he should have risked the diamond for one more bet from you on the turn.

Just my thoughts

 

[dj11]

I happen to be one of those folks who gags at a flushed flop, so mucking this here would be no problem for me...seldom is. Its a tourney, not a ring game, and the consequences of getting noteworthy info on villain is too steep.

However, even knowing he hit his set, you do have that K of suit. Pot is 895 and will cost you 230, damn close to getting the odds u need, with that 2nd nut draw.

You could call and not feel all that bad about it. Unless of course you are a .xxxx5 digit math geek .......

 

[Pascal-lf]

I would have shoved, the worst hand that he could have that you would see, would be Ad / Kx or Qx.

I would guess he has a smaller pocket pair, he putting you on AK or high cards like that (Because when someone has a pocket pair there is a 70% chance that pocket pair is the only pocket pair. Because he has a pocket pair he would more than likely assume you Don't have a pocket pair, and because you raised pre flop he would put you on two big cards.)

I would assume one of his paired cards is a Diamond, figuring as its just you and him, if he has a diamond he would more than likely assume you don't have a diamond. So even if you do happen to have a pocket pair that's higher, or you pair one of your big cards, he still has outs.

So I would put his hand on 10d/10x or 8d/8x, he could also have pocket 9s, but if he did he played it wrong by re-raising you on the flop, if he tripped up he should have risked the diamond for one more bet from you on the turn.

Just my thoughts

Sorry but don't listen to this:

- the guy with 9s played it fine on the flop, raising there is super standard
- you can't just put him on "10d/10x or 8d/8x", his range is far wider than that
- I don't think you can stay that he's will "more than likely assume" you don't have a diamond just because he has one; it doesn't make that much difference.
- the pocket pair stat is irrelevant - it's not a mutual probability. The chance of OP having a pocket pair doesn't decrease just because villain holds a PP - if you can prove otherwise feel free to explain

 

[dj11]

- the pocket pair stat is irrelevant - it's not a mutual probability. The chance of OP having a pocket pair doesn't decrease just because villain holds a PP - if you can prove otherwise feel free to explain

Actually, when 1 player has a pp, the odds that another player has a pp go up, not much but up. I'm pretty sure somewher in the deep recesses of this place there is a really good explanation. Else, where would I have gotten such trivial knowledge?

 

[Pascal-lf]

Probably something to do with the fact there are fewer combos involving that specific card of non-pairs?

 

[FreeRollWannabe]

Well there should be a pocket pair dealt statistically once out of every 17 hands. As 9 hands are dealt out, and you know you have a pocket pair, you can figure you have the odds in your favor that you have the only pocket pair.

Edit: I completely understand what you are saying, in individual instances you can't be sure about anything, but that's why you don't stick to the math if it doesn't feel right. Lets say a certain move is guarenteed to make you money 70% of the time, you would do that move right? And you would expect to lose 30% of the time, well why Don't you do that move during that 70% and during the 30% do something else? You might argue you can't know when that 30% is going to happen, but why not try to "know" it? Go out on a limb and assume.

Of course there is varience and there are instances that don't follow the math, but that's just how I tend to think.

The 70% I read in an article from FTP.com back in the day.

I could be horribly, stupidly, wrong in how I play but I do win maybe its because I don't think like others and it just throws them off.:trytofly:

 

[Pascal-lf]

The probability of each player having a pocket pair is independant though - the probability he has a pocket pair is (more or less) the same whether or not you have a pocket pair or not

 

[FreeRollWannabe]

Alrighty - they are independant....(but wouldn't it be cool if it turned out the universe wasn't as chaotic as we assume it to be?),
I would just assume he doesn't have a pocket pair until he acted in such a way that would indicate otherwise. In my experience people shove early mainly for two reasons, decent hand that can be beat (fear) or they have hand that needs to be made but can win if does (usually flush draw, trying to intimidate).

Very rarely does a made hand shove, unless their stack is small enough the opponent would almost be required to call.

Seeing as the opponent in this case only gave a few aggressive clues and not much more information, and me sitting with kings and a possible king high flush, I'm gonna go for it.

 

[dj11]

Alrighty - they are independant....(but wouldn't it be cool if it turned out the universe wasn't as chaotic as we assume it to be?),
I would just assume he doesn't have a pocket pair until he acted in such a way that would indicate otherwise. In my experience people shove early mainly for two reasons, decent hand that can be beat (fear) or they have hand that needs to be made but can win if does (usually flush draw, trying to intimidate).

Very rarely does a made hand shove, unless their stack is small enough the opponent would almost be required to call.

Seeing as the opponent in this case only gave a few aggressive clues and not much more information, and me sitting with kings and a possible king high flush, I'm gonna go for it.

I like your thinking. Exploitable, but logical.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Very rarely does a made hand shove, unless their stack is small enough the opponent would almost be required to call.
.

This isn't necessarily true at all (especially in SNG play where stacks are rarely deep). There'll be many instances where we're re-raise/shoving postflop... ie. when certain cards will kill our action.

 

[FastandFurious]

'unfiltered' sng stats - 16,354 games, roi +12% (avg. bi $16.57)

Ok.. 12% or 18% is still a big difference but of course solid.. I was "incorrect" saying that it wasn't going to be far off.. I mean every % you can add to your ROI is huge in the long term..

Pascal LeFiscal: Take a note

Yep, I sure did

Pascal LeFiscal: Sorry but don't listen to this:

Thx 4 the "warning" lol .. but yeah I agree with your explanations (and no offense meant to FreeRollWannabe btw)