$15 NLHE STT: A3s Bubble bvb Calling pre

[FastandFurious]

poker stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100.00/t200.00 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 1331066
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t1946.00 9.73 BBs - VPIP: 26, PFR: 19, 3B: 4, AF: 0.9, Hands: 144
Hero (BB): t2190.00 10.95 BBs - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 3.0, hands: 61476
CO: t5401.00 27.00 BBs - VPIP: 23, PFR: 16, 3B: 2, AF: 8.7, Hands: 144
BTN: t3963.00 19.82 BBs - VPIP: 27, PFR: 15, 3B: 2, AF: 1.6, Hands: 144

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BB with A :heart: 3 :heart:
2 folds, SB raises to t1921, hero ??

Filtered stats 4-6 SB: 0.50/30/23 Hands:98 SB steal:50%

Vs unknown with those kind of stats how much would u estimate his PR (Pushing Range) in SB here?

Vs 30% PR it's an easy fold and call only with 10.90% (55+, A9o+, A8s+)

Vs 40% PR it's still a fold and call with 14.50% (55+, A8o+, A5s+, KQo, KTs)

It becomes a profitable call vs 44.40% PR. I can call 17.30% (44+, A7o+, A3s+, KJo+, KTs) against this range..

 

[losched16]

In general, I am not calling off 10BB on the bubble with A3s. For this to be a comfortable +EV call, we need to be sure he is pushing VERY WIDE, like 70%+. Even if he is pushing around 55-60%, SNG Wiz has this as a very marginal +EV call. But there are a few things to consider:
1. Very rarely can we be 100% sure of someones shoving range. So we need to have a cushion when making calls (adjust your edge in Wiz). If it is a breakeven or marginal +EV call based upon the range we set, it could easily be a negative EV play if his shoving range is actually tighter. Especially on the bubble, it is usually better to err on the side of being conservative when calling and aggressive when shoving.

2. It is usually a profitable play for the SB here to be shoving ATC. However, most players do not know this. As a result, most will shove tighter than they should be. So you should be calling tighter

3. I would rather be the one shoving than the one calling. So I am willing to fold when faced with a marginal +EV call, so that I can be shoving in higher +EV situations. The only unfortunate situation we have here is that we will be shoving into a big stack when we are in the SB. So, depending on how loose the big stack is, we may consider picking other spots (like calling a shove from the SB), but I am still not doing it with A3

 

[WiZZiM]

Adding to losched post. The main reason why calling with weak aces suck is that we have no chance to dominate our opponant. It's actually going to be better calling with stuff like K8 or QT against loose ranges.

Why?

Because k8 and QT can both dominate a decent chunk of villians shoving range. whereas the A3 really only has the chance at getting 60/40's in it's favour.

Also, the kicker is a real issue, if we hit our kicker, it's still likely to be outdrawn, but with an 8 kicker on our K8, it's much less likely that will happen.