$15 NL HE MTT:

[Statsman1]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

15

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

This was a hand played last weekend, at a club tournament. It generated some very big debate, so I would like to know what you would do in this spot.

Final table of a live MTT (23 entrants), down to final 5 players. Top 4 get paid.

BB - solid player, pretty aggressive, does not get bullied. UTG - passive player, very infrequently bluffs, generally does not take huge risks.

BB - $100K stack
SB - $97K stack
Button - $50K stack
CO - $80K stack
UTG - $5K stack

Blinds - $3.5K / $7K / $2K ante

UTG shoves last $3K. CO and Button fold.

SB has 82o.

After a week, I will post what the SB did, and the result of the hand.

 

[eetenor]

Some Solvers do not have an any two spots they do have 97% of hands spots and 82off is not part of the range-
There is no need to call here when the BB is supposed to raise often and raising just needlessly puts chips at risk-
The BB does not mind if the UTG player wins as they have position on the SB and a shorty makes everyone else have to play very tight so the BB should not adjust the raising range

 

[zipocool]

what's the point of calling with 82 from the small blind when there's another big stack in the big blind? besides, there is no bounty for knockouts in this tournament, so here we just need to play fold and not come up with anything extra

 

[ipagan]

I might be fundamentally wrong here, but i'll just fold this hand. Yes, maybe some solver says that you need to push any two here, but I don't think that it's a good idea in any situation. I'll let BB handle that

 

[fundiver199]

All options are actually reasonable for SB here other than making a small raise. According to ICMizer SB can jam 96% of hands assuming payouts of 40/30/20/10%, and 82o is just good enough to be part of that range. If however the payout structure is more flat like 37/27/20/15%, then SB can only jam 89% of hands, and 82o is a slightly losing jam. SB can also limp and hope, that BB goes along with the idea of ganging up on the short stack and try to bust him. In that scenario SB and BB check it down postflop, unless one of them connect strongly with the board. Finally SB can also just fold. If BB is calling a jam wider, than he is supposed to, then 82o can quickly become a negative EV shove even with a top heavy payout structure. And if BB cant see a limp without raising, then there is no point in limping either.

 

[Statsman1]

what's the point of calling with 82 from the small blind when there's another big stack in the big blind? besides, there is no bounty for knockouts in this tournament, so here we just need to play fold and not come up with anything extra

There is a bounty (mentioned in the game description above) - $2.

 

[Statsman1]

All options are actually reasonable for SB here other than making a small raise. According to ICMizer SB can jam 96% of hands assuming payouts of 40/30/20/10%, and 82o is just good enough to be part of that range. If however the payout structure is more flat like 37/27/20/15%, then SB can only jam 89% of hands, and 82o is a slightly losing jam. SB can also limp and hope, that BB goes along with the idea of ganging up on the short stack and try to bust him. In that scenario SB and BB check it down postflop, unless one of them connect strongly with the board. Finally SB can also just fold. If BB is calling a jam wider, than he is supposed to, then 82o can quickly become a negative EV shove even with a top heavy payout structure. And if BB cant see a limp without raising, then there is no point in limping either.

Hey @fundiver199 ....

Glad you are here! What would YOU do?

Oh - the payouts were 50/25/15/10.

S1

 

[fundiver199]

Glad you are here! What would YOU do?

If BB is overly aggro, which I kind of get from your writeup, then I fold. Otherwise I limp and only put more chips in the pot, if I connect well with the board. If I miss, and BB bet, or if BB raise preflop, then I just fold, and it only cost me 0,5BB out of my 14BB stack.

 

[Statsman1]

If BB is overly aggro, which I kind of get from your writeup, then I fold. Otherwise I limp and only put more chips in the pot, if I connect well with the board. If I miss, and BB bet, or if BB raise preflop, then I just fold, and it only cost me 0,5BB out of my 14BB stack.

I don't know about overly aggressive - BB is a smart player, but there was no way to tell what the BB was going to do in this situation - play for the knockout himself or bring SB along on a call.

 

[fundiver199]

I don't know about overly aggressive - BB is a smart player, but there was no way to tell what the BB was going to do in this situation - play for the knockout himself or bring SB along on a call.

I did not factor the bounty into my ICMizer calculations. But with a $15 buyin and this late in the tournament, a $2 bounty is so insignificant, it hardly changes anything at all. If a min-cash is even $20, thats already 10 times more than a bounty. So the important is to get someone busted to lock up a mincash, not to win $2 for doing it.

 

[Statsman1]

I did not factor the bounty into my ICMizer calculations. But with a $15 buyin and this late in the tournament, a $2 bounty is so insignificant, it hardly changes anything at all. If a min-cash is even $20, thats already 10 times more than a bounty. So the important is to get someone busted to lock up a mincash, not to win $2 for doing it.

It feels like you would likely call and if the BB simply checks, great; if BB raises, you fold.

 

[ipagan]

It seems like most of votersjust folded this hand. I'm looking forward to see what an unexpected outcome it will be

 

[fundiver199]

It seems like most of votersjust folded this hand. I'm looking forward to see what an unexpected outcome it will be

I am pretty sure, SB did not fold, since OP know his cards

 

[ipagan]

I am pretty sure, SB did not fold, since OP know his cards

Yeah, that's for sure! But I mean what will we see: a massive 8-2 fullhouse on the flop or how SB will get his combo like 2 pairs/set/etc and will lose all his stack to flush or other higher combo or he will win entire tournament in this deal with this hand? This must be legendary, otherwise why do we need to focus on this situation and wait for a week? I hope it would be dirty

 

[Statsman1]

Here was the debate…

I argued that 82o was obviously way behind UTG (and would be behind virtually any other hand), so SB had no real hope of winning this hand heads-up. By simply calling, he was throwing $3,500 into a pot and allowing BB to come along for free…which gave SB had even less chance of winning. SB should have folded, simply to save the chips for another hand. The bounty was meaningless, as @fundiver199 said. However, if SB really wanted the bounty, and wanted to get to showdown for as little as possible, he needed to raise or shove, and pray like crazy the BB would not call. That is a silly risk to take at that point. Especially since BB was the slight chip leader at the time, and SB was second. All of this was my argument, as I would have folded, there was really no good ending that was likely here.

The counter to this argument (coming from SB) was that it was the money bubble, so it was a small investment to try and knock out that player. Additionally, SB was getting 7-1 on his $3,500 to call, so the pot odds made it worth the call, and that he “was sure” (and I don’t know why he would be) the BB would keep SB around for the increased chance of getting a knockout, and that also was worth the extra $3,500 to do so. On top of that, he had a 29% chance of hitting a pair (even though, so did everyone else, if they didn’t have one already, and they were almost assuredly holding higher cards). SB called all of this a “well-thought-out calculated risk, and the math supported it.”

Result: SB called, BB checked. Pot has $27,000 in it.

Flop 8TT
SB check
BB check

Turn 5
SB check
BB check

River K
SB check
BB check

UTG shows AJ
SB shows 82
BB mucks

I think SB has it in his mind that because he won, that proves his thinking was sound. Even today, he is convinced this was entirely the right play, and was somewhat offended that I did not see it that way. I think he is now convinced it was the right play ONLY because he hit his pair.

Yes, it was only another 1/2BB out of a 14BB stack, but I think it was just some slight greed and an incorrectly applied mathematical analysis that led to this decision. It is easy to take the test once you know the answers, but his logic, to me, was flawed and that he basically tried to give away another $3,500.

I posted this to see what others thought, as perhaps I was missing something. However, the different points of view are what make poker so interesting.

 

[Statsman1]

Yeah, that's for sure! But I mean what will we see: a massive 8-2 fullhouse on the flop or how SB will get his combo like 2 pairs/set/etc and will lose all his stack to flush or other higher combo or he will win entire tournament in this deal with this hand? This must be legendary, otherwise why do we need to focus on this situation and wait for a week? I hope it would be dirty

Yeah, I didn’t want the suspense to take that long. It wasn’t that exciting. I just wanted other perspectives on this one. Thank you for responding!

 

[Statsman1]

I will also add that SB in this case went on to finish 2nd, behind the BB.

I did not play in this tournament, I got all of this information afterwards, due to the debate that ensued.

 

[spunka]

how much would losing 3.5k mean for SB future gameplay ?
how much would it mean to get a player out of the game ?

that is question here

 

[fundiver199]

I think SB has it in his mind that because he won, that proves his thinking was sound. Even today, he is convinced this was entirely the right play, and was somewhat offended that I did not see it that way. I think he is now convinced it was the right play ONLY because he hit his pair.

SB played his hand perfectly fine and certainly not in a way, which warrent big discussion and debate. It seems to me, like you have some sort of emotional problem with "bad hands winning", but poker is a math based game, and all hands have equity preflop especially against other random hands. And here SB was against two completely random hands, since UTG is supposed to move in with any two cards, when he is this short. This time UTG had AJ, but he might as well have had 72 or 54. And BB will of course also have a completely random hand.

 

[Statsman1]

As I said, that’s why we have discussions and luckily, we have this board to talk about the hands. Different POVs make for good reflection.

 

[ipagan]

Ah, nothing special here
That's ok, that sb just limped and then checked all streets

 

[eetenor]

I don't know about overly aggressive - BB is a smart player, but there was no way to tell what the BB was going to do in this situation - play for the knockout himself or bring SB along on a call.

ICM pressure allows the BB to raise this spot and the SB has to fold more than GTO-it is not in the interest of the BB to flat to knock out the UTG player- the UTG player is soo short that the % of threat to the BB's chances to cash are low even if they win-- far more dangerous is flatting and losing to the SB post flop-

 

[Statsman1]

Ah, nothing special here
That's ok, that sb just limped and then checked all streets

Yes, sorry that there was no real drama at the end, but I did want to know what people thought the SB should do there. And everyone had solid input into that, so thank you!

 

[fundiver199]

ICM pressure allows the BB to raise this spot and the SB has to fold more than GTO-it is not in the interest of the BB to flat to knock out the UTG player- the UTG player is soo short that the % of threat to the BB's chances to cash are low even if they win-- far more dangerous is flatting and losing to the SB post flop-

I disagree with this. The situation of SB and BB is very similar. And while its not all that important for either of them to knock UTG out right now, the last thing, either of them want to do, is to play a large pot against each other. So if SB limp, BB has every incentive in the world to just take a free flop. If he raise small, its terrible for him, if SB limp-jam, and if he jam, its terrible for him, if SB call. So the situation of SB and BB is essentially the same.