$14.70 + 1.80 NL HE MTT: Easy fold?? - Overpair (BU) vs UTG+1 and BB on an unfavorable flop

[kunkgreen]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

14.70 + 1.80

Game Options

1. Deep Stacked

Currency

$

Beeem... not much to add...
I 3-bet UTG+1 and got called by the big blind and him (utg+1).
When I saw the donkey bet (bb) I thought about going back but utg+1 raised a lot, as I didn't have clubs for backdoor I decided to fold.

Additional info:
BB - 26 hands - VPIP: 61.5 PFR: 42.3
UTG+1 - 28 hands - VPIP: 39.6 PFR: 21.4

pokerstars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 (10 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

drelrj (UTG): 11,031 (110 bb)
GustavoB82 (UTG+1): 10,410 (104 bb)
TatiTie (MP): 10,100 (101 bb)
PokerBrStar (MP+1): 10,095 (101 bb)
rickallwin (CO): 8,670 (87 bb)
kunkgreen (BU): 11,644 (116 bb)
Woregon (SB): 8,170 (82 bb)
tcpalhari (BB): 9,880 (99 bb)

Pre-Flop: (230) Hero (kunkgreen) is BTN with Q♠ Q♥
1 fold, GustavoB82 (UTG+1) raises to 200, 3 players fold, kunkgreen (BU) 3-bets to 650, 1 fold, tcpalhari (BB) calls 550, GustavoB82 (UTG+1) calls 450

Flop: (2,080) 8♣ T♥ 9♣ (3 players)
tcpalhari (BB) bets 1,040, GustavoB82 (UTG+1) raises to 2,500, kunkgreen (BU) folds, tcpalhari (BB) calls 1,460
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...to be continued


Thoughts?

 

[I Live Poker]

a slightly bigger 3-bet maybe you would only play against Utg on the post flop. The flop also misses UTG's open raising range, but vs that flat 3-bet from the BB it turned out to be very strange. Fold post flop was good

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Given how deep you were, and the fact he only minraised, and the fact he is a loose recreational player (HUD-stats), I like a bigger 3-bet. I will not be doing a lot of bluffing against this kind of player, and if my 3-bets are mostly for value, and I can expect him to be inelastic, why not build a bigger pot preflop? Its not like, your sizing is a blunder, but I dont think, its optimal either.

Flop
If you call, BB will likely come along as well, and there will be less that a pot sized bet left on the turn. This just delay the difficult decision to the turn, and unless the turn is an offsuit J giving you a straight, its not going to be any easier. So for me this is a jam or fold spot, and I also think, we can simplify it a bit by assuming, that BB will fold facing this action behind him, and UTG+1 will call. I dont think, UTG+1 can have AA or KK, because those would have been 4-bet flop, especially with a caller in between. But he likely also dont fold a lot, when you go so small, and he have position on the other guy, and stacks are so deep. He is here to play and see flops, and with your pricing you allowed him to do exactly that. So whatever he opened from UTG+1, he can likely still have it now.

Starting with a realistic worst case, we can put UTG+1 on sets and overpairs, two pair and flopped straights. Or more specifically 88-QQ, QJ, T8s, T9s, 98s, 76s. I dont think, he play offsuit connectors worse than QJ from early position. Against that range QQ has 31% equity, which is clearly not enough. However I think, a player like this can also be raising draws or some overvalued top pair hands. If I also give him AT and JTs for worse made hands (JTs is also a draw), AJ to represent OESD and 11 combos of flushdraws, now we have 50% equity against his range. Which is enough even before considering pot odds. So while its not a terrible fold, I think, this is a spot, where it would have been profitable to just get it in and gamble with a loose recreational player.

 

[eetenor]

Beeem... not much to add...
I 3-bet UTG+1 and got called by the big blind and him (utg+1).
When I saw the donkey bet (bb) I thought about going back but utg+1 raised a lot, as I didn't have clubs for backdoor I decided to fold.

Additional info:
BB - 26 hands - VPIP: 61.5 PFR: 42.3
UTG+1 - 28 hands - VPIP: 39.6 PFR: 21.4

PokerStars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 (10 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

drelrj (UTG): 11,031 (110 bb)
GustavoB82 (UTG+1): 10,410 (104 bb)
TatiTie (MP): 10,100 (101 bb)
PokerBrStar (MP+1): 10,095 (101 bb)
rickallwin (CO): 8,670 (87 bb)
kunkgreen (BU): 11,644 (116 bb)
Woregon (SB): 8,170 (82 bb)
tcpalhari (BB): 9,880 (99 bb)

Pre-Flop: (230) Hero (kunkgreen) is BTN with Q♠ Q♥
1 fold, GustavoB82 (UTG+1) raises to 200, 3 players fold, kunkgreen (BU) 3-bets to 650, 1 fold, tcpalhari (BB) calls 550, GustavoB82 (UTG+1) calls 450

Flop: (2,080) 8♣ T♥ 9♣ (3 players)
tcpalhari (BB) bets 1,040, GustavoB82 (UTG+1) raises to 2,500, kunkgreen (BU) folds, tcpalhari (BB) calls 1,460
.
.
.
.
...to be continued


Thoughts?

Watching replay one street at a time have not seen what you wrote or other answers-
So we are 3 way 100bb's deep preflop and the BB calls a 3 bet play is still live then UTG1 calls as well-can we exclude AA KK AK from both ranges? It seems most likely at 100bb stacks- UTG range is condensed and hits mid boards and above most often- BB range should also be condensed in a 3 bet pot but how often is the player pool 4 betting? If not often the BB can be calling low suited connectors expecting to go 3 way most often- BB could be playing fit or fold hands like 65 54 86 64 they hit hard on the flop or they are folded.
Flop-ugly flop crap- this flop smashes both our V's ranges and because they should be condensed there is not a lot that misses the UTG range
wow BB lead UTG raise - we puke fold- while we are blocking QJ- BB has lower straights 67 and would lead some % based on possible check backs here vs standard V- UTG baby raises when BB can be leading straights and sets-we do not have a club and only 3 jacks help us- we cannot raise here and we are calling to see what on the turn that lets us call again vs 2 players? If we make a set that gives JX a straight or possible flush- Qc

The other question we ask is this -none of these bets are get players to fold type of bets they are build pots type of bets do we really want to stay in a pot vs two players who want to make this pot huge with only QQ 100bb deep?

Saw river J hit perfect and you were thinking damn could I have called---NO the turn card forces us to fold when UTG bets - You made the best decision do not let perfect runouts make you think differently- Good news my crystal ball says the BB played KQcc terribly and would have stacked you on the river-so great fold

 

[kunkgreen]

@fundiver199 @eetenor @I Live Poker
First, thanks all for the entries...

Even with few HUD stats, I usually rely on them well... I think it's really a 'hand on the wheel' to be able to review all the showdown hands during the section for example.

From the game that villain had shown so far, I believe in something like possible strong draws (flushdraw) with toppair at most or how villain is weak maybe even a top pair with kicker of A of clubs, something like 10 (clubs) and 7 honestly could still imagine an action. One relevant factor was that I didn't have any club blockers, despite having them for the nut straight.

In the end, I think initially it should have really increased more. But lately I've had more use when I play, going well and taking it easy. But I should have considered that I had more people to talk to, isolating only with UTG+1 I would probably have won the hand.

 

[kunkgreen]

hahaha
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Turn: (7,080) 6♥ (2 players)
tcpalhari (BB) checks, GustavoB82 (UTG+1) bets 2,000, tcpalhari (BB) calls 2,000

River: (11,080) J♠ (2 players)
tcpalhari (BB) bets 4,720 (all-in), GustavoB82 (UTG+1) folds

Total pot: 11,080
tcpalhari (BB) wins 11,080

 

[fundiver199]

One relevant factor was that I didn't have any club blockers, despite having them for the nut straight.

Slightly nitpicky perhaps, but on the flop its actually bad to block flushdraws, because that is a type of hand, you are ahead of and want them to have. What is good though is to have a BDFD, because it gives you more equity, when you are behind to a straight, a set or two pair. A BDFD is approximately like having one more out, meaning you would have 4 outs to a straight, 1 out to a flush and 2 outs to top set, which would beat smaller sets and two pair but not a flopped straight. So having a BDFD will definitely push it more towards a jam.

 

[eetenor]

Slightly nitpicky perhaps, but on the flop its actually bad to block flushdraws, because that is a type of hand, you are ahead of and want them to have. What is good though is to have a BDFD, because it gives you more equity, when you are behind to a straight, a set or two pair. A BDFD is approximately like having one more out, meaning you would have 4 outs to a straight, 1 out to a flush and 2 outs to top set, which would beat smaller sets and two pair but not a flopped straight. So having a BDFD will definitely push it more towards a jam.

This is a good point people often confuse the use of blockers as stated above we want them to have more flush cards not less in a spot like this.

 

[jonaselloco]

I'd tell you what I would have done on that hand, kunk.
I really think your 3 bet was fine, they called. When paying, it seems to me that their rank was not too high.
For me the game was, seeing the flop and seeing the bets of your opponents, it was not uncommon to analyze that with 1/2 pot BB I was in a draw and with raising a pot UTG I could have an A10 type combination or a draw to make the color I would have called there and seen the turn that was very favorable to you.
And there after seeing BB check, and UTG make a very soft bet, it was directly allin.
I think that in that situation the two would have folded.
BB when calling a white bet, saw the river and it is very likely that he would have had some combination like JQ, or KQ, when betting UTG he saw that either his flush draw was not made or his semi-bluff did not work, or well if he had A10 against a possible straight on the river he didn't hit to keep the bet.
For me, without a doubt, the one with the best project was BB, for something he kept paying.
It is my humble opinion friend, Greetings. Carlos

 

[makisaa]

Unfortunately the fold option was stronger, after that flop with a straight shouting! And at the end you had a straight also with the Q. A thought is that maybe they didn't have a straight, but with that betting straight might was there!

 

[fundiver199]

A thought is that maybe they didn't have a straight, but with that betting straight might was there!

Given that UTG+1 ended up folding on the river, he almost certainly did not have a flopped straight or at least not the high end of it with QJ. Hero also blocked half the combos of QJ, so actually flopped straight are not that much of a concern, when Hero hold QQ. It would be pretty reasonable to get it in with QQ but fold KK and AA in this situation. What is concerning is, that the board kind of smashed their range for calling a 3-bet with sets and two pair, and they can also have a lot of draws with good equity.

 

[dallam]

There are some dark horses in the story.
First of all I found it weird to see a half-pot bet on flop as first to act. It could not be more opened party, it could hit UTG or even you for sure, minimum one of you, so it has to be an early value-bet. The fact that UTG put a min-3bet - either slowing down or controlling the action.

flop:
BB: AQs(?) A10s, A7s, KQs, KJs, 10J(s), 67s, 88, 99, 1010, JJ, 77(?), 109s, 89s, J9s, J8s
UTG: AJ(s), KQs, JQs, A10s, A7s, 1010, 99, 88

I think your over-pair at this point has to be weak, and probably won't hold on 2 more streets, even it was impossible that pre any of the two were leading, AKs, AA, KK would go and make a 4bet on you pre. So according their stacks, I would put one of them on set, which is beating us.

turn: Definitely a hard turn for both of them,if not JQs(UTG) then A7s(BB-UTG) and 77(BB) get there, not suprised on the check- small bet. (I still think here one of them has a set)

river: BB goes all-in here. As you did have two Q's (one of them heart) BB only could have AcQc. KQ is in the game too ~ Other hands became bluffs here.
UTG: No seven, No Queen, No set - with set should be pot commited, catching the 2 living combinations from BB's ~15 option pre. At this point it has to be AJ / A10s.

So as we had an option to see the river, you were ahead of UTG, but not sure if were ahead of BB as well. As I said, BB had AcQc / KQ / A7s or 77 (but you beat them now), or sets turned to be bluff, J(10 / 9s /8s) turned to be a bluff.

Very hard hand, but if you are not sure in your hand, and what to do next, its always the safe way to fold, and you did it great, even if its painfull like here it was. Good luck.