$120 PLHE MTT: over pair and open ended straight draw. best way to proceed on flop?

[Jacki Burkhart]

*woops* I clicked the buttons wrong. it is NLHE, not PLHE.

My table is pretty darned easy...but they're just beating me up. I flop top 2, they flop bottom set, I turn a straight, they river the same straight and we chop....that's how the table's been going. 1 player 3 to my left is better than me. 1 player directly to my right is pretty good...we're about equal and the rest of the table are, quite frankly, donkeys.

starting stacks were 10,000. I've had a rough day and I'm down to about 7,400. blinds are 100/200.

this is the last hand before first break of a large live MTT, event #1 in a 2 week series. 565 players started maybe a dozen have busted.

It folds to my Cutoff. half the table is already up and leaving to rush for the bathrooms. I look down at

I make it 525.

BB is a loose blind defending donkey, who way overvalues top pair. He's played about 60% of hands so far. He's got about 8000 chips...he was up to about 15k at one point....but any time he flops top pair he just won't back down and so he's lost about half his stack by being stubborn.

so...it folds to the bb and he flats me. no shocker there. I don't think he's folded his BB once yet in 2 hours.

pot contains 1,150

flop comes

bb leads out for 1,000

I have an over pair and an open ended straight draw. I have about 7k behind after my preflop raise. I decide I'm never folding this hand, this is a hand to go to war with on this flop. I want to extract value from AJ and KJ type hands, so I raise it up to 2,500.

he says "I guess I go all in" I snap call for my remaining 3,500.

he has

I never improve and I'm out.

my question is, is there a better way I could play this hand? is this maybe not a snap call?

 

[seymourflopsws3]

Do you reckon he'd be capable of leading the flop with middle pair with AT KT or (unlikely) QT? And is it possible he defends with T8 or T7?

 

[Scrover]

I would have raised it more than 525 because this person calls a lot preflop.

When he says "I guess I'll go all in", you should be pretty confident about your hand. Jx is probably the most possible hand in his range, but even if he had two pair you'd have good equity with open ended draws and counterfeit outs. It's a snap call, but not a fist pump one exactly. You have implied odds and Jx has a max of six outs.

I'll do the math for you. If the person has only sets, two pair, QQ+ and Jx hands in his range, then your equity is 71%. If it's only overpairs, two pair and sets, then your equity is a magical 36%.

And pot odds suggest that you need to put in 3,500 to win 6,150. That is you need 36% equity (what a coincidence).

So put him on a range and decide on that to make your call.

 

[tohos]

I would have raised it more than 525 because this person calls a lot preflop.

When he says "I guess I'll go all in", you should be pretty confident about your hand. Jx is probably the most possible hand in his range, but even if he had two pair you'd have good equity with open ended draws and counterfeit outs. It's a snap call, but not a fist pump one exactly. You have implied odds and Jx has a max of six outs.

I'll do the math for you. If the person has only sets, two pair, QQ+ and Jx hands in his range, then your equity is 71%. If it's only overpairs, two pair and sets, then your equity is a magical 36%.

And pot odds suggest that you need to put in 3,500 to win 6,150. That is you need 36% equity (what a coincidence).

So put him on a range and decide on that to make your call.

Agree you have to call off, especially given that he is totally incapable of folding his top pair, and on a board like this, he might just stubbornly put you on random QX(because he think people are always trying to push him off his hand) and stuff and not give up TX or even 9X hands. You are getting good pot odds to call against his range, can't be folding when you have so much equity.

Just wanted to point out that in the case of an all in, there is no implied odds as all the money is already in the pot and there is no more money you can possibly win from the hand. You only have direct pot odds.

 

[Scrover]

Just wanted to point out that in the case of an all in, there is no implied odds as all the money is already in the pot and there is no more money you can possibly win from the hand. You only have direct pot odds.

My fault for using the wrong term there. At least some one noticed for me instead.

 

[WiZZiM]

i go broke just like you here OP.

 

[Arjonius]

If the person has only sets, two pair, QQ+ and Jx hands in his range, then your equity is 71%. If it's only overpairs, two pair and sets, then your equity is a magical 36%.

I'd be wrong, but I'd discount the likelihood of QQ+ based on his pre-flop action.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Do you reckon he'd be capable of leading the flop with middle pair with AT KT or (unlikely) QT? And is it possible he defends with T8 or T7?

his post flop play was pretty straightforward and sticky. I doubt he'd lead out with less than top pair, and I could basically assume he wouldn't bluff or semi-bluff. He is betting for value almost 100% of the time....but he also overvalues his hands....

As for what he defends with....I cannot exclude anything from his defending range as I have seen him defend his BB 100%. based on the action though I'd guess he has to at least have top pair, or 2 pair. even if he has 2 pair though...I still have a lot of equity. The absolute worst scenarios are if he has KQ or KK. even if he has AA I have 10 outs. If he has has set I have 10 outs. but the KK kills 4 of my outs...and the KQ is a disaster as I can only ever chop or go runner runner. every other hand in his range though, I am either crushing or have almost 40% equity.

I would have raised it more than 525 because this person calls a lot preflop.

I definitely considered this for a brief second during the hand....and I considered it A LOT after the hand. At the time...I just decided to go with my standard raise.

a note on my general play: each new blind level I pick a bet amount that is roughly somewhere between 2.2x and 2.8x and I make that my opening bet amount for the entire round. I never vary from this...if somebody limps or raises ahead of me then I can consider what is the best amount to bet for that situation but if I am first in, I just don't vary my bet size.

I'm not saying it's correct, it's just the way I do it. It's funny though...because THIS time I almost did raise it up to 650...because I knew he was gonna defend and I have a really strong hand that doesn't usually mind a call....I don't mind playing a bigger pot in position vs this guy. In the end I listened to my little voice that said "just stick with the gameplan, jacki"

in the end...I don't think my opening bet size mattered one lick in the outcome...but in general I am beginning to wonder if I should vary my bet size based on WHO is in the bb? just a thought. anybody have any opinions on this?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I should clarify I lied about only having only 1 opening bet size. If it folds to me in late position and there is a short stack to my left, I will sometimes change my opening range to pot commit me against their stack...but still allow me to fold if a bigger stack plays back at me.

example: I have 10k on button. SB has 17k and BB has 3,500. If my normal raise is 900 I might make it 1,500 this time, that way I essentially "take away" the all in move from the BB. they can go all in, but they should be smart enough to know they have no fold equity against me. If the big stacked SB re-raises or goes all in, then I've still got options.

 

[Scrover]

I definitely considered this for a brief second during the hand....and I considered it A LOT after the hand. At the time...I just decided to go with my standard raise.

a note on my general play: each new blind level I pick a bet amount that is roughly somewhere between 2.2x and 2.8x and I make that my opening bet amount for the entire round. I never vary from this...if somebody limps or raises ahead of me then I can consider what is the best amount to bet for that situation but if I am first in, I just don't vary my bet size.

I actually do change my raise sizes and do make it a bit more or less. If there is let's say, the chip leader in the BB and I'm in the hijack with QJs, I would raise slightly more because even though I am in position, I want to play a bigger pot and play less postflop because it's not a hand you'd love to get called with, but at the same time, you wouldn't hate it either. Also, we all know about how chip leaders love to defend their big blinds and steal a lot (myself included).