$120 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Horrible fold or not?

[BobbySteel]

Final table of 3 table MTT
Im in the HJ with pocket 9s. I raise 2.5 BBs.
BTN calls who is a TAG and solid player.
Everyone else folds.

We are pretty equal in chips with about 30 BBs each.

flop comes:


I hit my set & bet 1/2 pot 3.5 BBs, Villain calls

Turn comes:


I check, Villain bets full pot & I call. pot is now roughly 40BBs.

River comes:


I check & villain goes all in.

I fold simply to stay alive...and I after looking at the math and the situation it seems reasonable. I feel this was a blunder and I got run over.

Would love some of your thoughts here because I know I misplayed this hand.

Thanks in advance

 

[fundiver199]

Its obviously a really bad board runout, since you ended up playing the board. Since you can only chop the pot, he need to be bluffing more often for a call to be profitable, and it pretty much does not matter, what you call with, other than of course a J or QJ.

 

[Sidetracked]

Not to sound like a stuck record, but it is very player dependent.

Some players will ALWAYS bet on a 5 straight or 5 flush board, trying to bet you off the probable chop. Other players will just check and hope for the chop.

Any reads on this villain, other than TAG?

 

[BobbySteel]

Not to sound like a stuck record, but it is very player dependent.

Some players will ALWAYS bet on a 5 straight or 5 flush board, trying to bet you off the probable chop. Other players will just check and hope for the chop.

Any reads on this villain, other than TAG?

Not really than I've never seen them go to showdown with out having the winning hand and when they're in a hand betting like this they usually have it which is why I folded. But they're also they type of player to make this type of move, they always keep the pressure on opponents. I'd say its 50/50 they were on a bluff. I think my best sizing was too small on the flop.

 

[tomasdig]

Not really than I've never seen them go to showdown with out having the winning hand and when they're in a hand betting like this they usually have it which is why I folded. But they're also they type of player to make this type of move, they always keep the pressure on opponents. I'd say its 50/50 they were on a bluff. I think my best sizing was too small on the flop.

Sounds to me like you made the right call. I think the bet on the flop is correctly sized, half pot on a somewhat wet board like that, trying to get some value off your set. Then it's just bad luck. And from what you've said, a J is very much on villain's range.

Were you ITM already or not?

 

[BobbySteel]

Sounds to me like you made the right call. I think the bet on the flop is correctly sized, half pot on a somewhat wet board like that, trying to get some value off your set. Then it's just bad luck. And from what you've said, a J is very much on villain's range.

Were you ITM already or not?

Wasn't in the money yet and just missed it by one
That's why Im still tilted over this hand LOL.

And yeah, the that's what I was thinking about the J, quite a few hands in his range with it.

Thanks for your input, I can rest a little better now

 

[300HPGOD]

I think it comes down to how you feel about villains turn bet. Are they the type of player that would do this with Jx that isnt J10? I am not sure what the real answer is to that question but to me the full pot bet on the turn is a bluff or they have 10x. The bluffs could include Jx but I tend to think depending just how aggressive villain is post flop that they most likely would not bluff with that but would bluff with more air type hands (maybe Ax and KQ). The 10 on the river is actually a decent card for us in my book since it negates the 10x hands which I feel is a large part of villains full pot turn bet range. I think I call with this one on the river since a good chunk of our stack is in the middle already and we will be chopping anything that is not Jx.

 

[fundiver199]

Another time it would be nice, if you posted the actual hand history, since that makes it much easier to keep track of the pot size. Looking at this again it seems like, his turn bet was for more than half you remaining stack. At this point you lose to a T or 5, and you are not getting the right odds to draw to a full house. So I think, you need to make your decision on the turn. Either he has enough bluffs in his range, and then you get it in now and be done. Or he has a T almost always, and then you just fold.

Putting in 2/3 of your stack and then folding on the river is the worst possible line to take, since you have showdown value. So if I ever decided to just call on the turn for whatever reason, then my river plan would be to jam on a paired board and check-call on any other board including this one. As HP300GOD say, this was actually a good river card for you, since it counterfeited his TX except JT. He is also more incentiviced to bluff for 25% pot, because its a bit of a freeroll. He might lose to JT, but that is pretty much it, and if you call him with a chop, trying to get you off cost him nothing.

 

[Bnobob]

Folow me / or you

Bet turn!
and the villain will probably fold; villain cAll / probable and evident straightm at the table.
Oon the River the Hero would only have the option to check + fold.

Tournament that follows Bro/\

 

[BobbySteel]

I think it comes down to how you feel about villains turn bet. Are they the type of player that would do this with Jx that isnt J10? I am not sure what the real answer is to that question but to me the full pot bet on the turn is a bluff or they have 10x. The bluffs could include Jx but I tend to think depending just how aggressive villain is post flop that they most likely would not bluff with that but would bluff with more air type hands (maybe Ax and KQ). The 10 on the river is actually a decent card for us in my book since it negates the 10x hands which I feel is a large part of villains full pot turn bet range. I think I call with this one on the river since a good chunk of our stack is in the middle already and we will be chopping anything that is not Jx.

Great Analysis of the turn...I was thinking something like this. Way after the game lol

 

[BobbySteel]

Another time it would be nice, if you posted the actual hand history, since that makes it much easier to keep track of the pot size. Looking at this again it seems like, his turn bet was for more than half you remaining stack. At this point you lose to a T or 5, and you are not getting the right odds to draw to a full house. So I think, you need to make your decision on the turn. Either he has enough bluffs in his range, and then you get it in now and be done. Or he has a T almost always, and then you just fold.

Putting in 2/3 of your stack and then folding on the river is the worst possible line to take, since you have showdown value. So if I ever decided to just call on the turn for whatever reason, then my river plan would be to jam on a paired board and check-call on any other board including this one. As HP300GOD say, this was actually a good river card for you, since it counterfeited his TX except JT. He is also more incentiviced to bluff for 25% pot, because its a bit of a freeroll. He might lose to JT, but that is pretty much it, and if you call him with a chop, trying to get you off cost him nothing.

Great analysis and I have to agree with you mostly. My reasoning for just calling turn was that he would back off after that. I knew if I go all in Im only getting called by a better hand so just get to the river an re-evaluate. But the T coming off threw because I know plenty of Js are in range. Maybe I let survival mode take over too much...the chip and a chair mentality might have got the best of me. on this. But I don't like the line I took with this at all...so I agree with you there. and thanks for a sharp analysis.

 

[fundiver199]

My reasoning for just calling turn was that he would back off after that. I knew if I go all in Im only getting called by a better hand so just get to the river an re-evaluate.

Re-evaluate is just another word for fold. And if you put in 2/3 of your chips and then fold to a river bet getting 5:1, you can get owned so hard, if he is capable of bluffing. Its one of those, where people tend to think, such a small bet can not be a bluff, but what if it is?

Its kind of weird, that he bet so much on the turn, and I think, its a little questionable, if he would really do that with a bluff? Why not either try to get it away a little cheaper or alternative move all in for max fold equity? If on the other hand he has the nuts, then his size could be an attempt to make it expensive for you to draw to a boat.

I play lower stakes, where maybe people tend to bluff less, but I would just have folded on the turn getting such a bad price and with so few chips left behind. Its way different, if he bet like half pot, and you have a big bet left for the river. Then you can pretty much play your set as draw and fold, when you miss.

 

[BobbySteel]

Re-evaluate is just another word for fold. And if you put in 2/3 of your chips and then fold to a river bet getting 5:1, you can get owned so hard, if he is capable of bluffing. Its one of those, where people tend to think, such a small bet can not be a bluff, but what if it is?

Its kind of weird, that he bet so much on the turn, and I think, its a little questionable, if he would really do that with a bluff? Why not either try to get it away a little cheaper or alternative move all in for max fold equity? If on the other hand he has the nuts, then his size could be an attempt to make it expensive for you to draw to a boat.

I play lower stakes, where maybe people tend to bluff less, but I would just have folded on the turn getting such a bad price and with so few chips left behind. Its way different, if he bet like half pot, and you have a big bet left for the river. Then you can pretty much play your set as draw and fold, when you miss.

His river bet I was actually only getting 1.5:1 because best scenario was split pot. I'd be putting in my remaining 40k to get back a total of around 100k which was my previous investment in this pot. And if he's got the J or JQ Im busted. With a player like this I should have bet the Turn as well. The second he sensed some weakness he pounces, that's his style. It was a tough one.

PLayed against him again few nights ago and he made his hand on the river against me 2x..one of which he only had 2 outs. I have found my nemesis..

 

[fundiver199]

His river bet I was actually only getting 1.5:1 because best scenario was split pot.

That is true, but I was talking about all those rivers, that are not a 5-T. If you are going to fold on say a 2, then I would rather fold on the turn and survive with a much bigger stack. As played the river situation is just awkward, and all the normal theory about ranges and blockers kind of goes out the window, because either player can have QJ, JX or the board, and thats it. So you are really just playing the guessing game trying to figure out, if he is bluffing more or less, than he should. There is no logic to, which hands he might be bluffing with, and it does not matter, what you call with, unless you have at least JX. In which case its not even a decision obviously.

 

[Lina1020]

I think you played the hand right. It is unlikely that the opponent would bluff in this situation and on the table. He probably had the right hand.