$12 NLHE MTT: $12$ NLHE MTT: $12$ NLHE MTT: Tough Decision On River with Set!

seeyouthru

seeyouthru

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Late stage of tourney, places paid = 21, players left = 44, Hero position= 19

8 handed table,Ante 10%

Folds To CO(101bb).CO LIMPS.

BTN=HERO(64bb) Picks up JhJc, Raises to 3x.

SB(30bb) Calls.

BB Folds. BTN Calls, 3 way to the flop

Flop(10.5bb) Js8c9h,
CO Donks 1 bb, Hero raises 4bb, SB folds, CO Calls.

Turn(19bb) Qs,
CO leads 9.5bb, Hero Calls.

River(38bb) Kh,
CO fires another 19bb, Hero Folds!

Villian from CO was Standard Tag Guy and i didnt had any reads on him.

On the flop villian Donks and i raised to get value from Kx Qx and Tx chasing straight draws, villian decides to call.
Intresting thing he leads on Turn OOP which makes me believe he has very little bluffs and most probably is betting Tx but could be protecting Two pairs i dont know.
but i do decide to call due to redraw and being in position!
River Bricks for me and Villain Goes into the tank and after a lot of time fires 48% Bet on River. i decided to fold because it looks so value and he isnt even polarizing his range!
 
S

Sidetracked

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If CO open limped, then he is not 'standard TAG guy'

There are only a few situations when you should fold a flopped set, and unfortunately, this does seem to be one of them.
 
Jon Poker

Jon Poker

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This definitely seems like the right spot to find a fold with a set - im just a little sticky and the price hes given us here just may be too good for me to fold considering how high up in my range that I am. If I lose the hand I still have around 20bb to work with and I am comfortable on that stack size. Villan overplays lots of 2 pair combos and whatnot in this spot in order to fold out hands like ours - competent villans know that we are likely not calling down to this much aggression without the T so they can pretty much turn any underpairs or weaker 2 pair combos into bluffs in order to try and have us fold out the top of our range - basically forcing us to have a T or we fold.

Their sizing on the river - while it looks pretty value heavy is also sized appropriately where they can just fold worse if they were to get raised on this texture - so again - I think personally I'm going to have a tough time folding in this spot this far up in my range - even on such a terrible runout. That said - I think if ever a spot warrants a fold with a set - this is definitely one of them so I don't hate a good disciplined lay down here at all.

Hope this is helpful in some manner
 
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300HPGOD

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The pre flop raise needs to be bigger over the limper. We do not want to play JJ multi way and if the SB does call then the BB has a decent shot at calling and playing this 4 way is a disaster waiting to happen. I would like something larger to ensure its us vs one villain so I would go 5-6x here. We may be stepping in it if they limp 3 bet us but then we can fold in my opinion as I dont think there should be many limp 3 bet bluffs off a 6x raise.

On the flop its the same for me, your raise needs to be bigger. Treat the min bets as if they were a check so if villain checked to you with top set on that kind of board texture would you be only betting 40% of pot? Probably not so I would treat the min raise a check and prob bet around 6BB here as played.

On the turn when they lead out I would not be too happy but I would make the play that I have I have written in other posts and that is I would raise here to make them define their hand. I would make my raise very small ranging from clicking it back to as high as 22BB. That would leave us 35BB or so behind after that move. Yes we would have put a lot in by then but we could still get away from it at that point. Raising the turn will lead to a call, Fold (which I doubt) or a re raise. If villain re raises us there then we can safely fold knowing we are way more than likely beat. If they call our raise then they will check or lead on river. If they lead that usually says they are not bluffing and we can find a fold. If they check (the whole reason we make the move on the turn is to get them to check to us on the river more times than not) then we can check behind. The move is a pot control move but works because if you were raising for value you would be making the same raise, with the same timing of the turn card to about the same amount you would be using here.

As far as the river decision with the as played hand, I lean towards folding based on the bet sizing. I think a small bet here or a large bet here might point to more polarization but I feel a half pot is much more likely for value. If villain missed a draw I see them going bigger and if they had two pair I would think they would tend to blocker bet. This could be wrong but it would be my assumption while playing the hand so I would fold and not be happy about it but I think its a fold.
 
F

fundiver199

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Opponent type
As someone has said already, CO is certainly not a TAG the way, he played this hand. A TAG would never open limp in this configuration. They would also never donk lead the flop for 10% of the pot. I call this a "fish bet", and COs actions in this hand literally scream fish. I would not even need HUD-stats or anything else to put the fish label on him after seeing this :)

Preflop
Your isolation raise is to small. I typically use 4,5BB, when I am this deep. 4BB is the very minimum.

Flop
I like the fact, you raised his "fish bet", but your sizing is way to small. You are literally begging him to stick around and try to draw out on you. I would go to 8BB.

Turn
When he donk lead again on the turn, and this time for half pot, then he most likely hit the straight. This is, what fish do. They try to get there cheap, and then they try to get paid off. Another raise would be an overplay, but your hand is way to strong to fold. Only option left is to call and hope for the board to pair on the river.

River
Given the player type I like the fold here. As Jon Poker say, we might want to call off against a good player, because we are high in our range. We might also want to call against a maniac, because he might be overplaying two pair. But against someone, who played like this, we are looking at a lot of Tx here, and its fine to just let him have it.
 
U

UkoChebuko

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CO was Standard Tag Guy

CO LIMPS.

What!?

I think your raise OTF must be much bigger. WTF are you doing!? Are you not scared? And now this turn...Now this is ugly. If there was different SPR, you can just shove. But now is stupid. I just will call. Crying call OTR, but just can't fold vs this "limping TAG".
 
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