£115 NLHE MTT: BB squeeze spot facing LJ open and BTN short stack shove

[quant1986]

Mid stage live MTT, full ring

LJ, ~ 40BB, previously opened 2.5x with 33 from UTG, maybe a bit loose
BTN, 10BB, weak loose
BB (Hero), ~ 40BB - tight image

LJ raised to 2.75BB, BTN shoved with 10BB, BB (Hero) dealt with 88, Hero?

I think I will shove with TT and not sure with 99 or 88.
Would you pass this spot if you consider you have edge over the field?

 

[eetenor]

Not a squeeze!

Mid stage live MTT, full ring

LJ, ~ 40BB, previously opened 2.5x with 33 from UTG, maybe a bit loose
BTN, 10BB, weak loose
BB (Hero), ~ 40BB - tight image

LJ raised to 2.75BB, BTN shoved with 10BB, BB (Hero) dealt with 88, Hero?

I think I will shove with TT and not sure with 99 or 88.
Would you pass this spot if you consider you have edge over the field?

Thank you for posting.
A Squeeze cannot be used when a player is all-in. To squeeze the original raiser the Btn has to be live. Think of squeezing a ball the pressure must come from at least two places.

You want to know is it worth while to go all-in hoping the first player will not call leaving you facing the btn shove with 88.
This is a high risk play. You have 40 BB and a skill advantage. Survival is key in tournaments. Having a stack to pressure others also very important.

You are a head of exactly 6 pairs and behind the equal amount. You have no blockers.

You have two villains not one. The first villain changed his bet size. Hmmmmm.

Do you have good players at the table who have position on you?
Blinds going up quickly? Often at those levels we can go from 40bb to 30bb in the next blind level.

Do we need to gamble to build a stack?
If yes, we should shove vs two weak range players.

Hope this helps

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

ick. I hate this spot.

I think I might fold and I hate folding pairs.

if we play we have to rejam.

it's close. I think I'll rejam 99+

 

[skeptix]

As others have mentioned, I think 99 is the cutoff and 88 is a fold. Against a tougher field I'd lean towards rejam.

 

[zuker]

your choices:
fold - your hand strong enough against loose LJ and shortstack.
call - LJ can push and you will need to reevaluate your hand. if he call then overcards on flop lead to hard decisions.
so maybe push is better choice?

 

[Brawo]

If I were you I would pass here. I can quote @eetenor "The first villain changed his bet size. Hmmmmm." very good observation. If you want to play, in my opinion only all-in is right choice. On the flop and next streets game will be difficult. Jonathan Little said in some book (or co-workers) "If sb push all-in on the short stack, you shouldnt't call with marginal hands, but push all-in, because another player must have a tough decision to make - isolation)

 

[quant1986]

Thanks for the comment.
Yes agree I cannot call here at this stack depth.

LJ called with KQo and BTN showed KTs.

 

[Ryan Laplante]

ick. I hate this spot.

I think I might fold and I hate folding pairs.

if we play we have to rejam.

it's close. I think I'll rejam 99+

Agreed

 

[Matt Vaughan]

My instinct was that 88 is an okay jam (but not printing), until I saw both Jacki and Ryan say they'd be folding it... so I decided to at least take a look at some ICMizer output (for chipEV).

ICMizer assumes Nash equilibrium until you start plugging in your own assumptions.

And sure enough, even with Nash, these sickos are right lol. We don't have to push with 88. Pushing AA makes ~13bb, and pushing 88 loses 0.7bb. Pushing 99 actually only makes 0.008bb lol so even that seems like a questionable shove. TT makes 1bb, which is close to 10% of the EV of aces, so that seems fine.

I'm honestly pretty surprised but what the output says for the BTN jamming range is only an 8.7% shove range, which I suspect comes down to the fact that he only has 10bb, it's an open to 2.75bb, and if it folds back around to LJ, he's getting a rather insane price.

Although looking back I realize I did this pre-ante. So let's see how much this changes if I add back antes.

Okay so now here's what all the pairs make down to the first "unprofitable" shove for us:

AA: 15.1bb
KK: 10.3bb
QQ: 7.7bb
JJ: 5.7bb
TT: 3.9bb
99: 1.9bb
88: 0.7bb
77: 0.15bb
66: -0.34bb

So this definitely looks MORE reasonable for 88, but it's only making 0.7bb to shove here according to ICMizer, and that's about 5% of what aces makes by shoving, so that's really not great, and again, the greats Jacki and Ryan appear to be right, that making our cutoff 99+ seems correct.

I tried!