$110 NLHE MTT: Satellite - Did I rush it?

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Daithi

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Figures might be a tad bit skewed but still very representative of reality. Live satellite with prize of 3 tickets. Around 40 entrants. Around 28 left. I was even a chip leader around 30-40 mins prior, but more about that at the end as optional context.

My stack around 50k in the cutoff with :as4::5s4:
Blinds 1500/3000/ante 3000 paid only by button.
Action folded to me. I open up to 8k. BB calls. Pot 20.5k

The BB (similar stack) a formidable (stubborn) player. She was sitting on my left all night at a previous table. She was semi lose with her hands, 18% vpip perhaps. She would engage oop many times that evening. Almost always check the flop, and if all checked (3 way) she would lead out the turn. She did that at least 5 times. Never really saw a showdown when she did her Turn Donks. Also had an encounter with her early in the game when I raised her on the flop but she called. Quite persistent at times.

Anyway, so the flop comes :js4: :6h4: X dry. She checks. I am worried here to cbet as she was previously hard to shake off of the flop. Next card :6c4:. She leads out for around 12k. I knew that if I call anything here, I'll be pretty much commited and she will lead out on the river. She did this turn donk so many times. If she had 6 on the flop, surely she would protect it by leading out the flop. The blank was very low, something like 3. Unlikely part of her range. That jack was in her range alright. Chance if her hitting it was 33%. Plus she did this move so many times. I desperately needed chips at this stage. My M-was around 8, more like 5 was I to give up that hand. I decided that if I shove now I might have some fold equity. I wasn't representing the 6 but mere pressure of A overcard. I felt like she missed the flop and turn and I was putting pressure on her. It was very risky, but my situation was risky. She said she didn't believe me and eventually called. She had J something. I know, I know. It smacks her range.

I feel like I should have gone for shove preflop. But this was a live game and the players tended to call a lot the past 10 mins and my hands weren't winning (more on that below). These guys can be superstitious and can call, as in "he's running bad now". I was worried about that a little.



Optional read:
I sat to that table (10) as a chip leader, around 120k. I was very patient the first 10 mins to see whos what. Then one short stack (25k) half across the table to the right started to move all in every 4th hand or so. He was showing low pocket pairs and small aces with marginals. I wanted to call him a few times with A9s, KTs but couldn't. It was too far and I would surely get squeezed. He was ruining my hands. Im dealt AT, he goes in for like 22k. Im dealer. I call. SB also calls.
Flop comes KJx. SB checks, I check. Turn J. Check, check. River x. SB checks flips over QQ. My stack reduced by 22k.

Another short stack in the cutoff with around 25k. He opens for 5k. I'm dealer with QJ. I call. Pot around 13. Flop Jxx. He leads for 7k. I knew if I call hes deffo pot comitted and will shove the turn. I shove all in. He calls, flips over KJ :mad:.

And there was another instance where I lost around 10k with AJ to a house on the river. Twas the SB. I had TP or good pair. I knew was more likely to lose the showdown, but I wanted to see whether it was a bluff or not. He is known to value bet. So this plus about 2 raises (with Axs) from LP which were reshoved by medium stacks (40) from blinds paved my way to the hand above. I'm sure there's bad play involved, but there wasn' whole lot I could have done.
 
Last edited:
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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Preflop sizing seems a little large, especially at this stack depth. If that's the size you feel you need to make it to get the job done, I'd be more inclined to jam or fold this hand.

While I agree there's some element of "looks like he's running bad, he's gonna keep running bad" thinking live, it's not like people are vastly altering whatever they typically call with imo.

I also don't love how you keep saying "surely they'd do XYZ" when we don't really know this. Your optional read section is full of thin spots where you didn't happen to win - maybe it was unlucky, but it's not super relevant. And in the actual hand where you assert that the villain would have led any 6x on the flop, that makes almost no sense to me. It's extremely uncommon to see flop lead outs into the preflop aggressor, so again, I'm not sure how you're able to assert that.

I would just be cbetting such a dry flop. You say she's "hard to shake on the flop" but with no context. It's more likely you're reading too much into the times where she happened to check call on the flop.

The turn I'd just be folding, but if we do something other than that, I prefer the jam to a call.
 
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