$11 SNG: 4-Handed in the BB

[chicubs1616]

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button (t475)
SB (t2460)
illini43 (t5100)
UTG (t5465)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8d, 5c.
1 fold, Button raises to t475, 1 fold, illini43...

Many players see this as an insta-fold... However, I would like to take this hand and explain some basic pot odds calculations.

Part1: Situation
I have the 2nd largest stack, and have absolutely no worries if I call and lose another hundred chips here. After posting the BB I have 4950 chips. Also, the button has been very aggressive, pushing lots of pots on the bubble (4 players left, 3 cash) and not yet showing down a hand, it is reasonable to assume he could be pushing any two cards here.

Part 2: pot odds...

Here, I have to call an additional 325 chips to win a total pot of 700 [75(SB) + 150(BB) + 425 raise = 700].

So, I am getting 700:325 or ~ 2.15:1 odds.

85 offsuit is not a very good hand, in fact it is a very bad hand...however, in this circumstance, I will try and convince you that calling here is +EV (that is, has a positive expectation).

The button has been pushing when folded too since we have been short-handed and he is taking advantage of two other weak players at the table who have folded everytime. He has not shown down an all-in hand yet to this point, but he is pushing a WIDE range of hands here.

Part 3: Calculating his range of hands.

With a downloadable poker utility, PokerStove, I am able to determine my expected win % vs. a certain opposing hand range with my particular hand. In this case, his range is almost any two cards with his stack being so short. So, to put him on a range, I can either elect to place him on a random hand, or take out a few hands that are worse than mine to establish some limit. However, again, with his stack being so short, I am putting his possible range of hands on any two cards...

So here is the output from PokerStove of my 85 offsuit vs. a random hand:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.4275 % 38.74% 02.69% { 8d5c }
Hand 2: 58.5725 % 55.89% 02.69% { random }

This random hand range includes every hand possible from 72o all the way to AA.

As you can see, I am ~ a 59:41 underdog vs. any random hand. Therefore I would be needing at least 1.43:1 odds to be making a call.

Part 4: Analysis and Conclusion

Since I am getting 2.15:1 odds here, only needing 1.43:1, this is a fairly easy call given the circumstances.

Now not all situations will be as clear cut as this, and your stack size will not always be huge in relation to your opponents, but this plain and boring analysis of a simple hand should give you some insight into how to play short-handed poker, especially in SNGs, using odds to your advantage.

I'll leave you with this... just because you are not a favorite preflop, does NOT mean that you should fold all of the time. There are MANY circumstances where you should be making calls when given correct oddsand in relation to your situation at the table even if you are not the favorite before the cards are played out...

 

[shwingzilla]

You've never seen him fold preflop? I mean even the shittiest of players usually doesn't play 8-5 offsuit regularly. The other thing is why make your stand here? Why not wait till you have at least something half decent? Like you said you have second largest stack, so it's not like you're going to get blinded away before you get the cards to knock him out. The thing about hold'em is in the majority of circumstances the chances preflop are fairly even. To get a card that clearly loses against a random card on average you have to pick up a real stinker.

Secondly, you can't be sure he's pushing ANY two cards. (you yourself have said you haven't even seen them) I mean sure he's probably playing some shit hands, but you can play almost every hand for quite a long period and still not play cards like 8-5 offsuit. (if he was pushing any two cards consistently and winning the blinds he wouldn't be small blind)

To put it in another way:
Using your logic, if you think everyone is going to fold to him, or if everyone has already folded to him, you should call every single bet he makes from any position. (pot odds are always better than 50%, and obviously random hand vs. random hand odds are 50%)

 

[holduplaya]

You are the chip leader?

If you are the chip leader I wouldn't call why? let the ithers take em out you could call cause your the first to act the UTG? and the SB and the other guy call with one of the top ten hands. I you were the SB everyone else calls I's still fold why cause I just can't do a tourney like that I'd have to kick my own ass for calling with 85off suit so what let him have your 75 chips and screw the odds - to put it bluntly- I'd wait like what "shwingzilla" said for at least a face card or a ten. The odds could be close the guy could have shitty cards "COULD" but do you really know? or was he playing stupid up until now... with online poker I relised anything could happen especially the the things I really don't want to happen or thought was never going to happen - like the saying "shit happens"- with me its like FOLD'EM SHIT IS GOING TO HAPPEN!

anyways what was the outcome?

 

[robwhufc]

shwingzilla and holduplaya, you need to read and re-read Chicub's post because what he says is right (and your responses are typical of most players). If you are in the Big Blind and are big stacked, and a Small stack goes all-in, you need to call (if the blinds are sufficiently high compared to the small stack). As Chicubs says, the actual cards you hold are immaterial to some extent - 9 times out of 10 you will get pot odds to call, despite almost certainly being behind. I've seen a lot worse than the case Chicubs has described - Big Blinds folding when they need to put 200 chips into 2000 pot to see flop heads up against an All-in. Even if you've got 23os, your odds of winning are MUCH higher than you think they are (23 v AK will win 1 in 3 - if you are getting more than 3/1 odds you call). How many times have you seen the underdog get the best of an all-in? This is a VERY common mistake that i often see poorer players make.

 

[holduplaya]

I'm poorer

well I guess you never seen my wsop braclets yet, but poorer?.....




Jokes... descibe the hand as you please and read and re-read I don't like the odds and I have seen way too many "marks" (small stacks) come up from 475 to chip leader in 4 hands of all-in's. Then again who am I to speak my oppinion? I have only played in about 20 tourneys. and out of those 20 - well 20 that I put my own money into - I've seen more than half the time a 475 stack turn into a 6000 stack (or somewhat similar)within 10 hands. Maybe I'm stupid or poorer but that is more then %50 of the time these people will double up. to some people odds are not the odds that should be considered they are just numbers that don't mean nothing when you feel eveyone is playing their smartest.

 

[shwingzilla]

Checked and rechecked the odds, and I stand corrected. As long as he doesn't hold two overcards, a pocket pair 6-6 or higher, or one of the cards in your hand with a higher kicker, this play is profitable.

As for the shortstacked getting knocked out, the reason I see them get knocked out is not because they don't win all ins, but that they need several of them in a row. Even if you were guaranteed cards that would win seventy percent of the time, you have less than a 50% chance of winning two all ins in a row.

 

[chicubs1616]

It's not so much your odds of winning vs. your opponents hands...its more the odds you are getting offered by the pot in relation to your hands probablity of winning vs. likely hands.

So, instead of focusing on how bad 85o is...(it is a bad hand), I'm trying to bring to light that by getting correct odds from the pot to call is why a call here is profitable...

And to those who say that he can't be pushing "random" hands, you must not be familiar with succesful bubble SNG players.

Thank you robwhufc...

 

[Xandit]

I agree with Chi and Rob that calling is the best option given this set of cirumstances. I understand what holdu is saying about doubling up the small stack. even with a win the small stack is just over 1000 chips. You still have a 5-1 lead at the table. The next time he moves all in and you have 68o in the big blind you will not be getting the right odds to call...850 to win 1250 appox. so you wouldn't call here. No one wants to give other players chips but at the same time you need to take the chances to knock players out of the tournment to increase your stack and chance of winning. This is where the gambool in poker comes in. you need to make caculated decisions based on incomplete information and the odds the pot is giving you. Just my 2 cents.