$11 NLHE STT: Unsure about this hand

[Corey]

$11 NL HE STT: Unsure about this hand

Hi, I have a hand I'd like to discuss. It was in a $11 satellite on Merge,
First Place takes T$109
Second Place takes T$11
3rd Place takes $10

Ignore the fact that i limped on the button with 65o.

After seeing this action, what do you guys think i was up against?


Blinds 15/30
Stacks:
VILLIAN(in Small Blind): 2530 chips
Big Blind: 990 chips
P1: 520 chips
P2: 1440 chips
P3: 1405 chips
HERO (on BUTTON): 4070 chips
HERO is dealt 5c 6s
Action:
P1 calls 30
P2 folds
P3 folds
HERO calls 30
VILLIAN calls 15
BB checks
Flop is Ks 2h 2s
VILLIAN bets 30
BB folds
P1 folds
HERO raises to 120
VILLIAN calls 90
Turn is Qc
VILLIAN checks
HERO bets 240
VILLIAN calls 240
River is 7d
VILLIAN bets 300

 

[slycbnew]

A hand better than 65o in all likelihood, hard to imagine 54 or worse playing this way - I assume you folded and he showed after you folded?

I imagine 2x and Kx both play this way, and possibly a bricked fd. What's your image? If loose/crazy, add 88+ to that range and a Q that floated and hit. Any read on Villain?

I've never played a MTT with that payout structure, and never will unless it's an STT and I believe there are a bunch of worse players in it. Is there a typo?

 

[cjatud2012]

Kx here would be kind of weird, I feel like he would c/c or c/f the river with that. 2x could have taken this line, as a weird sort of slowplay line out of position. I think a busted draw is more likely, because he played the flop and turn pretty passively once you took the initiative, then he realized on the river he could only win by betting. Who knows, maybe it could even be something dumb like 77.

 

[Corey]

First of all, I didn't and don't want to discuss the outcome since my friend says that the pros on this one forum post all of their hands this way. If you show the actual outcome that might bias the analysis.

Also my friend thinks he did not have 2x or Kx, and had a busted flush draw, and that if I had raised to 1000 I probably would have gotten him to fold and I would have won. Obviously I was trying to win by bluffing without a showdown. I think my friend has a 60% chance of being right, so I think I should have raised.

My image is tight agressive, no read on the villian.

This was a merge MTT tourney with a given start time, it wasn't a SNG, but only 7 people joined, and there were rebuys and addons, so it devolved into a SNG/STT. At the beginning only 1 T$109 was guaranteed, but with addons and rebuys, there were then prizes for #2 and #3.

 

[slycbnew]

You're correct, don't post results - I didn't get where you were going w this hand, so I reacted incorrectly - and cj already correctly anticipated where you were going with the hand...

 

[cjatud2012]

^^ Yeah, it would be kinda silly if OP was asking if we could win at showdown. It might have been more clear if he said our hole cards were XX.

I'd actually like to see more threads like this. I know one of the things I need to improve on is hand reading, and posts like this help me work on that.

 

[The Spillage]

I would imagine the only Kx he would play like this is K7. Suppose it might have been a strange 2x slowplay. You sometimes see people betting the flop weakly with a set to try and induce action. As for whether you should reraisethe river bet? Depends on your read. A fish would probably call with any K or a hand like 88. Probably never should've got that far.

 

[cjatud2012]

Whether villain would fold to our raise depends on what our range is from villain's perspective. Since we limped in pre, our range is probably pretty wide, like 22-TT/JJ, Axs, some suited connectors like JT, 87, etc. After we raise, villain might believe we're holding AK, KQ, KJ, KT, A2s, any maybe some flush draws. When we bet the turn again, we're repping more of the made hands in our range, as a flush draw might check it back to get the free card. That's what makes his donk bet so strange. It could be a flush draw from him trying to take down the pot without a showdown, but we've shown a pretty strong range, so maybe he's betting with better than that, and we can't raise him out of the pot.

Man, all this is making my head spin, hahah.

 

[WiZZiM]

I don't get the point of this thread, but heres my guess..


I think he had a flush.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Care to explain your rationale behind running the bluff? Bluffing into the big stack on a dry board (there's very little in his range that he calls flop/folds turn with) in an unraised pot (his range is wide and unpredictable) just seems a little peculiar to me.

 

[WiZZiM]

Care to explain your rationale behind running the bluff? Bluffing into the big stack on a dry board (there's very little in his range that he calls flop/folds turn with) in an unraised pot (his range is wide and unpredictable) just seems a little peculiar to me.

I didn't want to say anything, as i don't think this is intended to be HA. I'm still not quite sure what it's all about. I did kind of think the 300 on the end was a nice christmas present for that villain

Another silly guess, i think he shows 5 high.

 

[slycbnew]

I was confused as well - look at #4 in this thread, having run the bluff, how likely is it that the river donk bet is something Villain can be blown off of by raising him to 1000...

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I didn't want to say anything, as i don't think this is intended to be HA. I'm still not quite sure what it's all about. I did kind of think the 300 on the end was a nice christmas present for that villain

i dunno, it's just one in an ever-growing list recently of people posting a hand and then proceeding to ask the wrong questions about it. the fact that OP apparently didn't see his bluff as unusual enough to warrant an explanation makes me think there is no explanation and he fell into the "well i dunno why but I guess i'm gonna bluff now" trap. he did mention the limping pf with 65o, after all.

just speculating, OP feel free to correct me if i'm wrong.

 

[cjatud2012]

Whether the bluff was goofy or not, the point was what Sly pointed out-- what is his range, and is our range strong enough relative to his to bluff him out of the pot?