$11 NLHE STT: ICM Factors with JJ to gamble or not to gamble

[Minikiwi9]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/8qhCsIA

9 Handed SNG (3 are paid if you aren't aware), Super sick spot feels really close to me??

Seat 1 is a winning player, and him shoving really shows strength as I know he is aware of ICM and is shoving into two stacks bigger than him.

Was I do snug here? (Results orientated I'm an idiot ) Would you gamble it up?

I haven't ran this though ICMizer or any solver though it seems super super interesting.

 

[fundiver199]

I call here. You had both players covered, so even if you lose, you are not directly out of the tournament. If you lose the main pot but win the side pot, you even survive with decent chips. And if you win the whole pot, you eliminate two players and go directly to heads up with a chip lead. Its different, if you were the shortest stack. Then there is a lot of value in folding here and hope, that the second shortest stack will bust, so you get ITM. ​

 

[Minikiwi9]

Yeah ok this makes a lot of sense to me, thanks for explaining this I'm not sure if this could be argued with, I'm leaning towards I was to tight here..

I call here. You had both players covered, so even if you lose, you are not directly out of the tournament. If you lose the main pot but win the side pot, you even survive with decent chips. And if you win the whole pot, you eliminate two players and go directly to heads up with a chip lead. Its different, if you were the shortest stack. Then there is a lot of value in folding here and hope, that the second shortest stack will bust, so you get ITM. ​

 

[Jon Poker]

I think due to how we are stacked comfortably in 2nd place that Icmizer would say this is a fold...probably only supposed to call off QQ+ and maaaaaybe AKs. It may have us nitted enough to fold that as well.

The point is that we cannot jeopardize our position at the table and if we were to lose this hand we effectively move ourselves from 2nd place down to 4th and that just sucks. Yes JJ is a strong hand and are we ahead most of the time? Probably...but JJ vs KQ+ is still only 60% and if we take it multi way it's less than that...its rough enough trying to sweat fading two overs much less 3 or more! It's easy to be results oriented - but how would you feel had you called and the board comes out totally different, and then you lose the hand only to see the short stack triple up and the 2nd short stack win the side pot? That's really going to hurt and sometimes it is going to happen, we need to realize this and avoid these spots.

At a final table I think it's a tough fold but given ICM implications I think this is probably a correct fold. Mid game however, this is certainly a snap call and the results will be what they will be. I guess it also depends on the tournaments you are playing - sometimes the hop between 3rd and 2nd isnt too big and if you are fine settling for less then run with it - I just think we should reinforce good habits at these stages so we can perform well in any bigger games we may find ourselves in where payjumps can mean hundreds, even thousands of dollars! Would definitely be interesting to see this spot ran in icmizer just to see though.

 

[300HPGOD]

I would say this is pretty close not because the under the gun goes all in but because another player on top of that has called the all in. Their range should be very strong here. JJ probably has that range beat but then factor in the initial raiser probably has at least one overcard to us it makes things close. This is a situation where I dont think you are incorrect either way. My gut would probably make me call as I am just not folding JJ four handed.

 

[fundiver199]

I would say this is pretty close not because the under the gun goes all in but because another player on top of that has called the all in. Their range should be very strong here. JJ probably has that range beat but then factor in the initial raiser probably has at least one overcard to us it makes things close. This is a situation where I dont think you are incorrect either way. My gut would probably make me call as I am just not folding JJ four handed.

I think, stack sizes are the determining factor here. As you say, SB should have the strongest range, but he cannot bust UTG. So by overcalling we create a situation, where UTG is at risk of busting, and JJ really should be well ahead of his range. If the stacks of SB and UTG were reversed, this would lean more towards a fold, since then we can basically hope, SB woke up with a monster, and that he will bust UTG.​

 

[eetenor]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/8qhCsIA

9 Handed SNG (3 are paid if you aren't aware), Super sick spot feels really close to me??

Seat 1 is a winning player, and him shoving really shows strength as I know he is aware of ICM and is shoving into two stacks bigger than him.

Was I do snug here? (Results orientated I'm an idiot ) Would you gamble it up?

I haven't ran this though ICMizer or any solver though it seems super super interesting.

Thank U 4 Posting.

Do you have access to a range analyzer tool?
Have you taken notes on the ranges you are seeing from V's in spots like this in your player pool not just these 2?

Notes on this type of action are like gold in your pocket.

If your V's do this with AA-22 AK-AJ AKs-A10s/A5s etc etc Then JJ is a call

If however your V's are at the bottom of their ranges With AQ and only shove AA-99
Than folding in this spot is better.

Do any of your V's min raise AA KK QQ with 12bb UTG for instance, is a good note to have.

Also how does your player pool react to ICM pressure?
Do they understand any raise in an ICM spot is more powerful than a raise in a cash game or non ICM tournament spot?

There are free range analyzers by the way.

Hope this helps

 

[bealpoker]

Assuming theres shove and calling ranges are optimal this is a close fold

 

[1player2]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/8qhCsIA

9 Handed SNG (3 are paid if you aren't aware), Super sick spot feels really close to me??

Seat 1 is a winning player, and him shoving really shows strength as I know he is aware of ICM and is shoving into two stacks bigger than him.

Was I do snug here? (Results orientated I'm an idiot ) Would you gamble it up?

I haven't ran this though ICMizer or any solver though it seems super super interesting.

Hello,


No I would not gamble it up. You folded to get into the money and you were successful. Regardless of the quads you played to cash and you did it. Stand by your decision. Well played