re: Poker & $11 NLHE STT: ICM Factors with JJ to gamble or not to gamble
I think due to how we are stacked comfortably in 2nd place that Icmizer would say this is a fold...probably only supposed to call off QQ+ and maaaaaybe AKs. It may have us nitted enough to fold that as well.
The point is that we cannot jeopardize our position at the table and if we were to lose this hand we effectively move ourselves from 2nd place down to 4th and that just sucks. Yes JJ is a strong hand and are we ahead most of the time? Probably...but JJ vs KQ+ is still only 60% and if we take it multi way it's less than that...its rough enough trying to sweat fading two overs much less 3 or more! It's easy to be results oriented - but how would you feel had you called and the board comes out totally different, and then you lose the hand only to see the short stack triple up and the 2nd short stack win the side pot? That's really going to hurt and sometimes it is going to happen, we need to realize this and avoid these spots.
At a final table I think it's a tough fold but given ICM implications I think this is probably a correct fold. Mid game however, this is certainly a snap call and the results will be what they will be. I guess it also depends on the tournaments you are playing - sometimes the hop between 3rd and 2nd isnt too big and if you are fine settling for less then run with it - I just think we should reinforce good habits at these stages so we can perform well in any bigger games we may find ourselves in where payjumps can mean hundreds, even thousands of dollars! Would definitely be interesting to see this spot ran in icmizer just to see though.
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