$11 NLHE STT: AK against passive raise

[thunder1276]

The Button had just doubled up through me a few hands ago and had yet the play a hand since then. Before he doubled up he wasnt being aggressive. He was limping the button short stacked and was generally folding to my raises (except the hand I doubled him up. he called my small raise with Q10o). As soon as he bet I thought that since he had a stack now he wasnt afraid to try to steal the blinds anymore and I instantly raised. Now that I look at it though that doesnt make sense. Why wouldnt he try to steal the blinds when he was short stacked but now that he isnt worried about going out why would he steal? so I should have been a bit suspicious. Even if I did still reraise a smaller raise would have had the same effect. If I raised to 1000 instead of basically shoving I would still have 2K behind and if I missed could get away. of could thats assuming that he doesn't 4bet me.

full tilt poker $10 + $1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 1092072
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: t3010 12.54 BBs
CO: t3520 14.67 BBs
BTN: t3920 16.33 BBs
Hero (SB): t3050 12.71 BBs

Pre Flop: (t360) Hero is SB with K ♣ A ♠
1 fold, BTN raises to t720, Hero ???

 

[cjatud2012]

I'm not sure exactly what you should do here, but I do think the correct action has more to do with bubble dynamics though than the villain's perceived range at this point. I'm not the best at explaining it, but basically, due to the distribution of the stacks and the fact that we're risking elimination, we can't be restealing very often here (I think).

Also, a note for the future-- please leave results out of your original post, including your own actions. I've removed them for you this time.

 

[thunder1276]

I get why to leave out the results but wouldnt it be appropriate to show that I basically shoved here?

 

[cjatud2012]

I get why to leave out the results but wouldnt it be appropriate to show that I basically shoved here?

I think that actually still gives some bias. Even if we don't see the villain's cards, seeing your own actions might make a person think differently about what the correct move is.

 

[Rldetheflop]

I'm not sure exactly what you should do here, but I do think the correct action has more to do with bubble dynamics though than the villain's perceived range at this point. I'm not the best at explaining it, but basically, due to the distribution of the stacks and the fact that we're risking elimination, we can't be restealing very often here (I think).

Also, a note for the future-- please leave results out of your original post, including your own actions. I've removed them for you this time.

I think I need some clarification here. It seems we have enough fold equity here to warrant a shove. Its not like there is a shortie at the table whom we expect to bust soon.

 

[Marginal]

I understand folding this if there is someone with 3bb or something still in the tourney but we are 4/4 if we fold. Im not sure the exact math but Im quicker to shove here than I am to fold.

 

[Rldetheflop]

I understand folding this if there is someone with 3bb or something still in the tourney but we are 4/4 if we fold. Im not sure the exact math but Im quicker to shove here than I am to fold.

and 1/4 all the times we get a fold to our shove or called an win.

 

[Marginal]

and 1/4 all the times we get a fold to our shove or called an win.

Im not doing the math and I put that in the post but the thing is, we are really still tied 1st regardless of if we shove (and get a fold) or fold. There is not enough difference between stacks to really make the argument either way.

 

[thunder1276]

My main point of the OP was that he was being passive before this hand. He was limping fairly often up until now. in general do you believe that people are more apt to be aggressive when they do get a stack? Should I have been more cautious because this was the first hand he had raised in a while?

 

[cjatud2012]

I think I need some clarification here. It seems we have enough fold equity here to warrant a shove. Its not like there is a shortie at the table whom we expect to bust soon.

Well I'm not sure either way, and don't really feel like figuring it out at the moment, but from a glance I don't we aren't increasing our equity by a ton by re-stealing here, if he does call and we double up the bubble hasn't burst, and, obviously, our equity is zero if we bust.

It's just closer than you might think is all. Not necessarily a fold, although it could be.

I understand folding this if there is someone with 3bb or something still in the tourney but we are 4/4 if we fold. Im not sure the exact math but Im quicker to shove here than I am to fold.

This is true, but in reality it's the fact that the stacks sizes are so similar that is important. The button will be ~18bb's after this hand, the CO will be
~15bb's, and the BB and ourselves will have ~12bb's. Obviously these are all pretty close to each other, which creates a pretty interesting dynamic.

I admit I am most likely to shove this in a heartbeat while I'm playing, but I am not quite a pro, and I need to work on my bubble game quite a bit more. And I'm not being hesitant here because we have AK and I think it's an overrated drawing hand and blah blah blah-- that's not how I feel at all, it really tilts me when someone says that, they honestly have no clue what they're saying when they say that. I am just not sure how much our equity would increase in this situation, and if it's worth risking all of equity to do so.

My main point of the OP was that he was being passive before this hand. He was limping fairly often up until now. in general do you believe that people are more apt to be aggressive when they do get a stack? Should I have been more cautious because this was the first hand he had raised in a while?

Probably-- most random players aren't going to be all that aware of how their position, stack size, etc. should affect what range of hands they should be playing. However, I don't think that's the crucial part of the hand here-- the most important thing is the stack/bubble dynamics imo.

 

[vanquish]

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[Rldetheflop]

Yea I see its close just feels dirty to fold here. Perhaps I am thinking we have more FE than we do? Maybe I think the button is raising wider than he is? What is the thought on villain raising range and how often can we expect a fold?

 

[cjatud2012]

Yea I see its close just feels dirty to fold here. Perhaps I am thinking we have more FE than we do? Maybe I think the button is raising wider than he is? What is the thought on villain raising range and how often can we expect a fold?

well here's the thing-- if we shove and he folds, we push ourselves to like 16-17bb's, BTN now has 13bb's, BB still has ~12bb's, and CO has ~15bb's. So yes it'd make us chip leader, but really we're still stuck in the same situation as we were before where our stacks are all the same. I don't know for sure but our equity can't change too much from before this hand and after. So we're risking everything to change our equity by a pretty small amount, which is never a good thing.

 

[cjatud2012]

Some real rough numbers:

if we fold:
- bb = 0.2209
- hero = 0.2299
- btn = 0.2900
- co = 0.2592

if we shove and win:
- bb = 0.2537
- hero = 0.3648
- btn = 0.0955
- co = 0.2860

if we shove and he folds:
- bb = 0.2188
- hero = 0.2819
- btn = 0.2420
- co = 0.2573

 

[spunka]

I think it's a fold, AK is a good hand, but not good against pp yes we might have him dominated and yes we might be a favorit, but if we lose the hand we're out and everybody else at the table is gaining, so we are the one that will have to do the shoveings to stay in that game and hope that 2 other players will take the fight of going out with no money, we need to be 70% - 75% sure that villan is holding a hand we're dominating to even think about calling, and we're are not that sure.

 

[Rldetheflop]

I think it's a fold, AK is a good hand, but not good against pp yes we might have him dominated and yes we might be a favorit, but if we lose the hand we're out and everybody else at the table is gaining, so we are the one that will have to do the shoveings to stay in that game and hope that 2 other players will take the fight of going out with no money, we need to be 70% - 75% sure that villan is holding a hand we're dominating to even think about calling, and we're are not that sure.

all of these points are true except we are talking about shoving our stack not calling it off. From the look of CJ's numbers it looks like shoving would be profitable at around 67 percent folds from villain assuming that we are 50/50 on the hands we do get called.

villain folding 67 percent of the time doesnt sound that unreasonable to me. Am I expecting a fold too often here?

 

[liguolong]

Is call an option? I mean if you shove, he might have AA, KK, QQ or even JJ. Even if he has some hand like AQ, he still have a decent chance.

 

[spunka]

all of these points are true except we are talking about shoving our stack not calling it off. From the look of CJ's numbers it looks like shoving would be profitable at around 67 percent folds from villain assuming that we are 50/50 on the hands we do get called.

villain folding 67 percent of the time doesnt sound that unreasonable to me. Am I expecting a fold too often here?

The question you now face is 67% advantage enough to set your tournament life at risk ?

 

[Rldetheflop]

The question you now face is 67% advantage enough to set your tournament life at risk ?

well the math says that villain folding 67%+, average equity for a shove is greater than average equity for a fold and this counts all the times we bust with no equity.

 

[cjatud2012]

Yeah, it's going to be conditional on how much fold equity we have, that is very true. So it'll be different in each situation depending on reads, etc. Here, I am still concerned, because villain is known to be passive, is raising 3x instead of a smaller size more typical for a steal, and would not be eliminated should be call our shove and lose.

 

[spunka]

I really don't like it, also you still have the BB to act behind you, Unless he has a big hand or are lose he will fold.. but he can call with a decent hand because of the dead money from the orginal raiser in the pot.

I think the spot is bad in sb with these stack siezes and a passive raiser, and 1 player to act behind us.

 

[loopmeister]

OP, do you really put in on exactly QQ-AA?

He wouldn't raise KQ here? Or ATs? Or 9Ts?

I'm shoving here a ton.

 

[loopmeister]

Interesting. I've run the numbers in SnGWiz; and cjatud is right: the stack sizes mean we've got to play ubertight here.

Unless we think BTN is stealing with around 30%+ and then folding all but premium hands, our calling range here is JJ+.

Part of the reason we fold is that we go busto ~1/3 of the time (40% of the ~85% of times BTN calls). There's also the BB who has a big stack and there's a small (but significant) chance that he calls with a big, or lucky hand.

I learned something today. Thanks for the +EV post.

 

[loopmeister]

This leads to an interesting Levelling game here. Assume the blinds had just gone up to 150/300, and we're the BTN here.

Knowing that SB & BB should be calling ubertight , the correct move for the button is to shove ATC, right?

So knowing that the BTN is shoving ATC, AK comes back into our calling range.

The better the player, the wider he's shoving from the BTN. Since he's been passive, villain is prob not raising very wide here.

So knowing this, with the blinds about to go up, you fold your AK and shove 72o the next hand, no?

 

[vanquish]

folding here seems absurd