$11 NLHE MTT Turbo: Can we ever fold this?

[Ianmacca99]

Blinds 200,000/400,000 ante 25,000

Folds to hero 5.8m in c/o with AKh
12 left
Hero raises to 1.1m
Button jams for 6m+
Folds back to hero

The table had been shoves every hand almost should I of open shoved this rather than open raising?

With 4.7 back can I get away here or am I being results oriented ?

Button shows up with 10 10 and holds

No specifics on villan apart from he tried to bluff me and doubled me up about 10 hands earlier holding pocket 6s on a K J 8 board I had KJ

 

[greatgame230]

with AKs I call is my chance to double my stack and to be surely in the FT I don't see the way that in that situation and with that stack I fold

 

[fundiver199]

With 4.7 back can I get away here or am I being results oriented ?

You need to call off here with hands way worse than AK. Otherwise he can completely run you over with 3-bet bluffs.

Button shows up with 10 10 and holds

A pocket pair against two overcards all in pre is one of the most common ways to bust from a tournament. Nothing to worry about, nothing to regret.

The only slight nick-pick is your open size. With a stack of 14,5BB, you should either mini-raise or jam. Anything in between lose you to many chips, when you have for instance J9s and get jammed on.

 

[Ianmacca99]

You need to call off here with hands way worse than AK. Otherwise he can completely run you over with 3-bet bluffs.



A pocket pair against two overcards all in pre is one of the most common ways to bust from a tournament. Nothing to worry about, nothing to regret.

The only slight nick-pick is your open size. With a stack of 14,5BB, you should either mini-raise or jam. Anything in between lose you to many chips, when you have for instance J9s and get jammed on.

Thanks yeah I agree I can't lay this down.

I do think I should of just shipped it in here although he probably isn't folding his hand but he isn't always going to be holding something he can call off with

Thanks for the advice. Next step is turning good positions into winning. I am knocking on the door of a decent win without closing it out I suppose flips like this are crucial it's been a few months since I've taken anything down

 

[thehangdude]

4.7 mil to win 8+ mil is a must call with AK. Unless he has one of the 6 out of 1326 hands that spank you, you are at 45% at least.

You almost always have to win one or two coin flips for your life, if you want to win a tournament. You picked a good spot, just came up short. That means next time, odds will favor you.

 

[Sidetracked]

With your stack depths here, you should never be trying to get away from this hand.

Open shoving, or raise/calling 3 bet are more or less the same difference.

 

[Jon Poker]

We are missing alot of key information here - such as starting stack sizes, table positioning, etc.

If we started the hand with 5.8m then at 400k we only have about 15bb -- which means we should never be opening to almost 3x -- and when we do - we should never be willing to fold after committing 20% of our remaining stack.

That all said if you aren't willing to call off AK here than what hands are you willing to call off with? How much higher in your range can you get??

As Fundiver said - we have to call off way worse than AK here - i would be willing to say the bottom here is probably ATo+ and A8s+ along with KQs and 55+ ‐‐ if we are not calling off that strong then we are over folding (which alot of players do) and villans can 3bet us with impunity and almost no consequences.

Easy call off here - but no need to be raising 3x this deep - 2x - 2.2x is plenty at this level - anymore than that is just unnecessary -- ESPECIALLY if we making a raise with intentions of folding to a 3bet

 

[I Live Poker]

Blinds 200,000/400,000 ante 25,000

Folds to hero 5.8m in c/o with AKh
12 left
Hero raises to 1.1m
Button jams for 6m+
Folds back to hero

The table had been shoves every hand almost should I of open shoved this rather than open raising?

With 4.7 back can I get away here or am I being results oriented ?

Button shows up with 10 10 and holds

No specifics on villan apart from he tried to bluff me and doubled me up about 10 hands earlier holding pocket 6s on a K J 8 board I had KJ

hello would you not be able to put the stack and the bets in big blinds? or copy the hand and put it on the cards chat hand replayer?

 

[Nr98]

We are missing alot of key information here - such as starting stack sizes, table positioning, etc.

If we started the hand with 5.8m then at 400k we only have about 15bb -- which means we should never be opening to almost 3x -- and when we do - we should never be willing to fold after committing 20% of our remaining stack.

That all said if you aren't willing to call off AK here than what hands are you willing to call off with? How much higher in your range can you get??

As Fundiver said - we have to call off way worse than AK here - i would be willing to say the bottom here is probably ATo+ and A8s+ along with KQs and 55+ ‐‐ if we are not calling off that strong then we are over folding (which alot of players do) and villans can 3bet us with impunity and almost no consequences.

Easy call off here - but no need to be raising 3x this deep - 2x - 2.2x is plenty at this level - anymore than that is just unnecessary -- ESPECIALLY if we making a raise with intentions of folding to a 3bet

Yeah I agree, you miss a lot of key information (especially late in tourneys). Try saving your hand history and use a hand converter.

Although ICM can be a huge factor at these stages, even without the missing info it's fairly certain that this is a call any day of the week on your stack.

Small notion on the comments that say you got to defend enough not to be exploited. This is only partly true due to ICM considerations. A profitable call in chip EV may not be profitable in $EV, keep this in mind. Especially late in tourneys this can lead to weird spots where you got to fold AQ when you wouldn't expect to. Having said that though, yes ofc I agree this is a clear call.

Key take away for you though, save hand histories. Makes analysing hands a lot easier

 

[Jon Poker]

Yeah I agree, you miss a lot of key information (especially late in tourneys). Try saving your hand history and use a hand converter.

Although ICM can be a huge factor at these stages, even without the missing info it's fairly certain that this is a call any day of the week on your stack.

Small notion on the comments that say you got to defend enough not to be exploited. This is only partly true due to ICM considerations. A profitable call in chip EV may not be profitable in $EV, keep this in mind. Especially late in tourneys this can lead to weird spots where you got to fold AQ when you wouldn't expect to. Having said that though, yes ofc I agree this is a clear call.

Key take away for you though, save hand histories. Makes analysing hands a lot easier

Icm is nowhere near as high on the final 2 tables or even on the FT bubble - standard in game icm practices are at play unless payjumps are VERY significant. FT icm is extremely tight and has many spots where you are supposed to fold AK and AQ.

For example I was on a FT this past Sunday in 7/9 place with 11bb with 8th place having 10bb and 9th having 6bb - i was dealt AQs in the SB and the large stack at the table raised as normal and it folded around to me - I was almost certain of this spot to be call and then go broke if we hit - or just an outright open fold - why? Because we cannot afford to lose 2 pay jumps by going broke before a 6bb stack and an active 10bb stack who is clearly unaware of icm implications -- anyhow i did end up just deciding i was too high up in my range to fold - i hated the call in that spot with only 11bb - so I decided on the jam figuring if I am lucky it will be the bottom of what i could profitably jam in that spot -- got snapped by TT and lucky enough to drill the A on the turn to win the flip.

I ran the spot in icmizer and sure enough AQs was the bottom of any unpaired hands i could rejam with in that spot - AQo was a marginal spot - tho profitable - and should be passed on - AK both suited and off were good and TT+ as well. So an extremely tight spot for us there - and being that aware of icm and what it means is what can be the difference between alot of podium finishes vs alot of 7th and less. At the end of the day we want to take our flips with good equity well before the FT - but once we get there - especially if we have a nice stack - we want to avoid large flips at all costs because we want to secure a nice finish to maximize our ROI. In a nutshell you do NOT want to raise-call off with TT if you are 1st stack and are facing the 3rd or possibly the 4th stack jamming - if you lose the flip (and you will sometimes) - you could get knocked down from 1st to somewhere around 6th or worse depending on stack sizes - and it is a disaster losing your chip lead in that manner when you could find a better spot. To put it in perspective -- you will see some spots where you can ONLY call off with AA or KK. Icm at the FT is pretty insane and where 99% of the players in small stakes fields are making the most mistakes late in a tournament

 

[fundiver199]

Icm at the FT is pretty insane and where 99% of the players in small stakes fields are making the most mistakes late in a tournament

This is very true. I especially remember a somewhat painfull experience having reached the final table in a 22$ MTT, which was and still is one of the most expensive buyins, I will play. It was a small field, so only 8 placed paid, and we were 9 left. I had 27BB, which was around average, and nobody were really short. Maybe 17BB was the least. I opened QQ and got jammed on by a player, who had me covered. I absolutely hated it, but I felt, I was supposed to call with QQ. I did, he had KK, and I was the bubble boy. I later ran the spot in ICMizer, and QQ was actually a losing call although only marginally so.

 

[Nr98]

Icm is nowhere near as high on the final 2 tables or even on the FT bubble - standard in game icm practices are at play unless payjumps are VERY significant. FT icm is extremely tight and has many spots where you are supposed to fold AK and AQ.

Yeah that's exactly my point why you need more info on the hand

And also why even without the other stacks, I can't imagine this ever being a fold. Icm is a factor but not as much with 12 left as with 7 for example. The bigger the payjumps the more relevant it is. I agree

 

[Jon Poker]

This is very true. I especially remember a somewhat painfull experience having reached the final table in a 22$ MTT, which was and still is one of the most expensive buyins, I will play. It was a small field, so only 8 placed paid, and we were 9 left. I had 27BB, which was around average, and nobody were really short. Maybe 17BB was the least. I opened QQ and got jammed on by a player, who had me covered. I absolutely hated it, but I felt, I was supposed to call with QQ. I did, he had KK, and I was the bubble boy. I later ran the spot in ICMizer, and QQ was actually a losing call although only marginally so.

Those who run these spots consistently and KNOW QQ to be a fold (or marginal call) are the ones who finish higher in the payout ladder -- NO ONE else in the field is folding QQ - ive said this 100 times before but for the sake of it I will say it again - its not because we don't have the best hand a good portion of the time because with QQ we certainly do - the problem is we cannt afford to lose the hand and bust with tons of short stacks below us. Point blank - we cannot afford to run into a monster or lose a flip with Ax or a crazy Kx and go bust.

The correct icm plays separate the average players from the good players and good players from great players