$.11 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: Is this fold +EV or not?

[tzuriel]

Deep in this tournament and with the 2nd biggest stack at this table, I raise UTG with QTo. Couple callers and a shove that is insignificant to my bet/stack and a really good flop but then the MP2 shoves the turn. I fold since I only have one more card to hit my draw but looking at this hand later, it seems the pot odds are about even with the odds of hitting an 8 on the river at at 4:1. So I probably should have called since I would have still had a really big stack even if I miss.

What do you think? Thank you


No Limit Hold'em Tournament T15,000/T30,000
Buy-in: Tournament #24187428 - Holdem(No Limit)
Winning Poker Network
9 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

Stacks:
UTG+1 - Hero (T1,045,675)
UTG+2 - UTG+2 (T1,133,362)
MP - MP (T126,860)
MP2 - MP2 (T331,087)
MP3 - MP3 (T9,660)
CO - CO (T91,880)
BTN - BTN (T391,956)
UTG - UTG (T61,120)
BB - BB (T17,060)

Preflop: (T27,000, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with T♠ Q♥Hero raises to T73,030, 2 folds, MP2 calls T73,030, 1 fold, CO raises to T88,880 (all-in), 2 folds, Hero calls T15,850, MP2 calls T15,850

Flop: 9♣ J♦ 4♦ (T293,640, 4 players, 1 all-in - BB: T14,060, Hero: T953,795, MP2: T239,207, CO: T0)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: 4♥ (T293,640, 4 players, 1 all-in - BB: T14,060, Hero: T953,795, MP2: T239,207, CO: T0)
Hero checks, MP2 bets T239,207 (all-in), 1 fold

River: 8♦ (T532,847, 3 players, 2 all-in - BB: T14,060, MP2: T0, CO: T0)
Uncalled bet of T239,207 returned to MP2

Total Pot: T293,640
BB shows K♥ A♣ (a pair of Fours [4h 4d Ac Kh Jd])
MP2 shows 5♦ A♠ (a pair of Fours [4h 4d As Jd 9c])
CO shows J♥ 5♥ (two pair, Jacks and Fours [Jh Jd 4h 4d 9c])

CO wins T97,300 from main pot
CO wins T225,400 from side pot 1

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
There is some confusion with the hand history, because in between BTN and BB it says "UTG", and the player here should be "SB". It seems to me like, you were actually UTG, since you are the first player to act. Anyways weather you were UTG or UTG+1 opening QTo is simply way to loose. And its even worse, when you have so many short stacks behind you, because this means, you have less fold equity. The BB player is even forced all-in, so you will always need to beat him at showdown, and there is less chips to contend for.

Flop
You flopped an OESD, but with two guys already all-in (the hand history says one, but BB was forced all-in preflop) there is little value in bluffing MP2 out of the pot. So just check and hope, he checks behind.

Turn
Total brick and now MP2 moves all in for almost a pot sized bet. Since there is also no value for him in bluffing you out of a dry side pot, he should always have you beat here, and then its a simple math decision. And basically you are not getting correct odds on an 8 out draw with only one card to come. Even if your Q is sometimes live outs as well, its still not enough. There will also be times, where you are drawing dead to a full house, or where 8d and Kd gives someone else a flush.

Results
So MP2 was in fact bluffing you out of a dry sidepot, and because of his stupid move the pot went to CO instead. But this does not really matter. Even if he had shown you A5, you would still not be getting the right odds to call, so folding was clearly the right play. Really you should just have folded preflop though and saved those chips.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I agree in the large part with fundiver. We should fold Qto pre flop pre flop, because it is too weak hand to raise from utg position. We have some short stack on the table that we can't call their allins pre flop. In multi pot situation Qto don't play too good and we can have some problems on the flop when hit for example top pair queens, because kicker isn't too good. As played - I think that we should fold this draw on the flop, because in the best situation we have 8 outs to win, possible is that somebody has flush draw, so sometimes we can have 6 outs to win this hand. Against top pair on the flop we have max 32% equity, sometimes one out more than 32%. In conlusion we should fold Qto pre flop and wait for better situation to win chips. GL

 

[tzuriel]

Preflop
Anyways weather you were UTG or UTG+1 opening QTo is simply way to loose. And its even worse, when you have so many short stacks behind you, because this means, you have less fold equity. The BB player is even forced all-in, so you will always need to beat him at showdown, and there is less chips to contend for.

I was afraid you were gonna say that...

Still learning positional play. I thought with my big stack I might get away with something. Thank you for helping me make better decisions. Thank you fundiver and jaworek1405!

 

[300HPGOD]

I agree with what others have said about folding pre flop as you should not play this hand in this position along with the shove stacks after you but another thing to mention is the UTG +1 has you covered. Its never fun to have the table dominated with chips but the one person who has a stack that can ruin yours is directly to your left. In knowing this you should be worrying the most about the player to your left every hand. If they are the type of player who is aggressive they can play games with you when you open these types of hands. You will never be able to "defend" against their moves with these holdings. You dont mention what type of player UTG +1 is for this hand but they might be another reason here depending on their playing style of why you need to be folding Q10 off here.

 

[fundiver199]

but another thing to mention is the UTG +1 has you covered. Its never fun to have the table dominated with chips but the one person who has a stack that can ruin yours is directly to your left. In knowing this you should be worrying the most about the player to your left every hand. If they are the type of player who is aggressive they can play games with you when you open these types of hands.

Thats a very good point. With this chip distribution at the table Hero should tighten up considerably to avoid playing big pots out of position against the only player, who can hurt his stack. The situation is really extreme with nobody else having more than 13BB, and two players dont even have a single BB. So within the next orbit or two several players are likely to bust from this table. With a bit of luck the table will then be closed, and we will get moved to another one. Or alternatively other big stacks will get moved to our table, which will force the player on our left to slow down a bit, because now he also need to worry about players behind him.

 

[kkonicke]

I agree with most, the only way any of this play makes a lot of sense to me is if it's a bounty tournament...but it doesn't appear to be based on the description. QT off early position with a bunch of short stacks is an easy fold. In late position with no big stacks behind you can certainly start getting involved, but your position kinda forces you to tighten up. On the turn, I'm 100% folding to the jam. You have 8 guaranteed outs of 44 cards for an 18% shot at hitting your straight. I could understand taking slightly worse pot odds considering your stack but I'm not putting in on an 18% shot on a pot sized bet. I honestly hate the fact that that guy jammed with nothing...he gets no chips if he can't win at showdown and he doesn't have a hand he's going to win often at showdown.

 

[tzuriel]

I agree with most, the only way any of this play makes a lot of sense to me is if it's a bounty tournament...but it doesn't appear to be based on the description. QT off early position with a bunch of short stacks is an easy fold. In late position with no big stacks behind you can certainly start getting involved, but your position kinda forces you to tighten up. On the turn, I'm 100% folding to the jam. You have 8 guaranteed outs of 44 cards for an 18% shot at hitting your straight. I could understand taking slightly worse pot odds considering your stack but I'm not putting in on an 18% shot on a pot sized bet. I honestly hate the fact that that guy jammed with nothing...he gets no chips if he can't win at showdown and he doesn't have a hand he's going to win often at showdown.

Yep. I really understand this. Thanks for replying. I hated that jam also!