$11 NLHE MTT: Tough spot w/ Broadway

[cardriverx]

Sorry for lack of good hand history, Lock has crappy hand history.

Early tournament -- everyone has a ton of BBs

Im in CO with KJo. Folded to me I raise to 3BBs. BTN (who covers me) [Villian] calls, SB calls.

Flop A Q T two spades (Bink!)

SB checks, I bet 1/2 pot, BTN calls, SB folds

Turn T

I bet 1/3 pot, BTN 3xs me, I call. (Both still have a lot of chips, Pot 5kish. I have 5600, he has 9kish)

River 8 (No flush comes)

I check, he insta-ships.

No real reads its the first couple hands. No HUD either atm sadly.

My thought process is that he either has a boat or KJ or complete air. I don't think he would ship a bare T here or like AK.

Thoughts? (again sorry for the Hand History!)

 

[jaworek1405]

Here always possible is full house on paired board or better, and hand like AT, QQ, TT, sometimes AA or QT, but AA and QQ he should 3bet pre flop. I don't think so he has complete air. I'm not sure what is better, call for a ton of BBs is very risky, but If he has full house, he shouldn't ship here because then he can't win a lot of your chips, so I here probably call and I hope that I have the best hand. He can have just three of a kind and he can think that you have AK or AQ. Hard to fold this.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

without a read this is so tough, but I'm leaning towards a call.

its hard to put him on a boat...he would raise preflop with any of the hands that would flop a set.

It kind of makes sense for him to have AT but don't you think you would have heard about that on the flop? in a multiway pot I think he'd potentially raise his top and bottom pair

Also, if he has a boat the all in on the river seems odd...his opponent has already checked to him, so he must know a huge bet like that is unlikely to get called, in fact I think He's banking on it. If he had a boat I think he'd bet an amount you could easily call with a 2 pair type hand. Something like 1/3 to 1/2 the pot.

To me, this reeks of a KT or busted spades type hand. It's also possible, like you said that you have the same hand. I'd probably tank, then suck it up and call but not be too confident about it.

The only hand that beats you is a boat and the only boats that make sense are AT or QT and I don't think he would play AT or QT like that....

 

[jordanbillie]

Meh, this is a toss up. I would have played the hand differently. But in a vacuum OTR I probably call.

 

[kanselau]

Without reads Im calling this , don't think I could sleep at night folding.


Assuming villain is a good player , he is most likely 3betting pre AA , QQ , TT, AK, AQ and probably A10 . Against a CO raiser.

My guess is that villain has J10 or Q10, K10. But leaning towards J10, K10.

I don't think hes raising the turn with a flush draw ,
I would expect him to do that on the flop. Since you showed strength pre and flop , I expect him to take the free turn card if flushing.

his turn raise makes me think that he has a 10 and is raising for value against AK AQ.

Like said above river shove is odd if hes got a boat ,as you showed weakness on the turn by just calling and checked river .

No matter what hes got Boat or Trips hes more likely to value bet river rather than fold out everything that he beats, so maybe hes not a good player after all and is spazzing out.

 

[sleepymike]

You say you don't have read on him, he shoving suggests he has some kinda read on you and believes you are gonna not call this with tourney life on line.

 

[duggs]

fold turn, 1010/Q10/A10.

bet more on flop and more on turn

 

[twohaha]

You should bet more on the flop and turn to get more money from draws and made hands. Bet more on turn and I probably would shove on turn, since he would have 3-bet most of his hands that would make a full house. He's likely to have trips or a straight, so I would shove on turn to get called by those types of hands.

 

[jordanbillie]

fold turn, 1010/Q10/A10.

bet more on flop and more on turn

I don't agree with this because of Hero's bet sizing.

 

[duggs]

Villains don't take this line as a bluff pre ante almost ever, and what value hands do we beat?

 

[Weisssound]

This could be a lot of things. Without a sense of the player it's a crap shoot. If the opponent can read you:

A 3xB raise from the CO keeps your range fairly wide. A tight-ish player might still hold onto an Ace Rag to defend, a loose player might call with anything. AA, KK, QQ and maybe even JJ/TT would usually re-raise in this spot - even at the risk of being obvious.

Flop comes, your 1/2pot could be seen as an aggressive c-bet. It still keeps your range fairly wide. And the call likewise keeps his range relatively wide, but we can probably say he's either paired something or has the flush draw.

Now, the 3xraise on the turn could be interpreted a couple of ways. Either the ten made him a set, or he's setting up a river bluff. The check-shove to me seems like a lot of levelling. He'd either have to be a bingo donkey making a big overbet for value, or he'd have to have set up something that looks bluffy from the flop AND know that you had something good AND know that you wouldn't let it go. It's possible, but I'd say the set of tens or the river bluff are more likely.