This is an easy jam with 14bb. We are beating quite a bit of their range, apply max fold equity and when we do get called our hand has enough equity to withstand such. Every now and then we are going go run into a better hand and that's fine. I think almost every chart and program will tell you with 14bb this is a jam from the SB.
Option two for me - if you wanted to be more passive - would be to just limp, fold if he raises/shoves - and just lead almost any flop if he checks. We lose 2bb max when we dont connect and we are forced to fold.
Edit:: After the spoiler - you are questioning yourself here because you busted out on this hand - had you won this hand I doubt you wouldve posted it. The fact is you made the correct play - dont be results orientated! You flopped pretty well for having a worse hand, you just didnt improve and the rest is history. Still was the correct play, just like villan made the correct call.
Completely agree that T9s is a standard jam at 14bb. Especially now since Villain is a bit of a nit. Limp fold to a raise is a massive leak in your game though. Yes if Villain jams we can find a fold, but let's say he makes it 3x we will have to peel for sure.
Agree on the results oriented part, just focus on the decision!
As Jon Poker say, we can either limp or jam in this spot. If Hero just jammed the hand before, I might lean a little more towards limping. Jamming multible times in a row might make some people think, we are out of line and induce them to start fighting us back. Which of course I dont want, when I have T high. Also limping in these blind vs. blind spots reduce variance, and with 14BB it might be the better overall strategy. Especially against people, who are a bit on the passive side and will allow us to see some flops. That being said jamming is certainly also a +EV play, which just did not work out this time.
I feel like your understanding of theory is fine, but your mindset is completely in the wrong place.
Try to play ranges regardless of what happened in the previous hand. If we play a solid strategy there's no exploiting this. If Villain ends up making bad adjustments, we win more in the long run. Whereas if we make our own adjustments based on no data/flawed assumptions we leave money on the table.
As far as reducing variance goes, we want to be decision oriented as Jon Poker pointed out. We'd like the strategy that maximizes our overall EV (in dollars obviously not necessarily chips) rather than reduces our variance in the long run. Doing otherwise out of fear leaves too much money on the table.
However, I like your thinking that Villain is on the passive side and we could potentially exploit this. We can do this in two ways. If we're playing a Jam only strategy, we want to be pushing wider since Villain is likely to underdefend. If we're playing a mixed strategy (limp/jam/raise), we can limp with a wider (weaker) part of the range while still jamming the better hands. Having said that tho, even then I still think T9s is a mandatory jam.
If we limp and fold to a jam, we only lose 0,5BB, so its not the end of the world. I typically like to try limping a few times to get a read on, how the player on my left reacts. And if I sense, he is shipping or raising way to wide against limps, then my next limp is going to be a trap.
It's all about variance here mate. Limping a few times to get a read leaves us with a very tiny sample size. As such we can make no (solid) assumptions on his playstyle (there are very extreme exceptions, but if you're up against a total maniac you should know this by now). Try going from a basic strategy, and if we see that Villain has leaks (over a solid sample size!) we can exploit. Otherwise we lose a huge amount of EV.
A good player is going to call much wider than you might like in that situation. I would have folded. You did get the pot the previous hand, which means you have a whole round to go before you're back in the blinds.
What happened before shouldn't matter. Every single hand we want to maximize our EV.
A few things theory wise:
- Even against a player who calls off with a proper range (which is quite rare at these stakes), T9s is still a very standard and completely unexploitable jam.
- Villains stats are waaaay too nitty over a >300 hand sample. It's really unlikely that he will defend optimally, thus T9s is definitely a jam.
Also, don't forget, most of the money in a Tournament is on top. We don't want to go into a tourney with the mindset of just surviving one more round. Ofcourse you're completely right that we should factor in payjumps. But in general it's very rare that they are so heavy that we want to adjust here. Also, if we look at ICM, whereas from most positions we'd want to be tighter, the small blind can actually jam wider due to the pressure you apply (has got to do with the amount of people the jam has to go through).
Ofcourse I don't know everything either. So if anyone feels like I was wrong somewhere or incomplete I'd love to hear it
