$11 NLHE MTT Bounty: call/X-fold vs. all-in

[johnnylawford]

$11 NLHE MTT Bounty: call/X-fold vs. all-in

Here's the hand:


pokerstars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 1,750/3,500 (550 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

jonnylawford (UTG): 174,405 (50 bb)
Lola&Bella2020 (UTG+1): 137,633 (39 bb)
shum88888 (MP): 195,424 (56 bb)
meety9 (MP+1): 81,671 (23 bb)
emerson22222 (CO): 219,051 (63 bb)
AdekaloN (BU): 260,762 (75 bb)
swamp2008 (SB): 78,652 (22 bb)
Gozillaah (BB): 50,435 (14 bb)

Pre-Flop: (9,650) Hero (jonnylawford) is UTG with 7♣ 7♠
jonnylawford (UTG) raises to 7,525, 1 fold, shum88888 (MP) calls 7,525, 5 players fold

Flop: (24,700) 5♥ 7♥ 6♠ (2 players)
jonnylawford (UTG) bets 14,000, shum88888 (MP) raises to 28,000, jonnylawford (UTG) raises to 166,330 (all-in), shum88888 (MP) calls 138,330

Turn: (357,360) 8♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (357,360) 4♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 357,360

Showdown:
jonnylawford (UTG) shows 7♣ 7♠ (a straight, Four to Eight)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 18%, Flop: 75%, Turn: 23%, River: 0%)

shum88888 (MP) shows 9♠ 9♥ (a flush, Nine high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 82%, Flop: 25%, Turn: 77%, River: 100%)

shum88888 (MP) wins 357,360
My question:

• When opp min re-raised on such a wet board would it be worth calling and seeing if a heart/4/8 roll off on turn?
• Was going all-in this deep for 50bb bad from an ICM perspective?

Any and all thoughts are good!

 

[300HPGOD]

First I will say that this is probably very deep in the tourney (I apologize if you mentioned that already but I did not see that) so we do have ICM to think about and also it is important to know that we do not cover our opponent so no matter what, we are not getting the bounty here. It would factor in that the villain might call us lighter here than normal but we cant win their bounty.

Pre flop it looks as though you are UTG with 77 and open 2.2x or so which I think is totally fine. We get a good scenario where there is only one caller. Folds would be better of course but heads up is fine. I like the lead on the flop as it is coordinated and your sizing from the best I can tell is 2/3rds or so which I think is good. When they min raise here I would be thinking that they are either drawing to hearts or have a set lower than us. Obviously there can be other hands (such as what they showed) but that would be my first thoughts. With a set over set scenario we do have to worry about another heart killing action but I would not jam because of that. Likewise if they have 2 hearts I dont think they are going anywhere either since they would likely have two hearts and overs to the board (overs dont matter but villain would not know that). It is a passive play but I like calling here as I still think I can get one more street from sets even if another heart comes up and I am not getting hearts to fold anyway. If a heart comes on the turn I can re-evaluate and see what happens and if there is no heart on the turn then we can bet big to crush the set over set combos and still get some 2 heart combos to call.

As it turned out the absolute worst card in the deck hit on the turn. I dont mind your flop jam and dont want it to sound like I do I just prefer calling here. Like I said I could be wrong because we dont know how the villain will react to another heart if they have 66 or 55 but at the same time we are not bounty hunting on this particular hand and we also have ICM to consider if we are deep in this tournament as I presume we are.

 

[Sidetracked]

I like your flop jam. With the increased aggression in today's games, people are playing their draws much more aggressively than they used to. getting it in on the flop, you will be ahead of all but the nittiest players.

 

[marianexbj]

Well played

I think the hand is well played, on the flop you are clearly winning. Taking into account that there are draws and having the top set it is very profitable to finish all in on the flop. Then the variance did its thing and to something else.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, you played it totally fine. On the flop you are only behind to a flopped straight, and for him to have a flopped straight, he would need to have called from MP with a suited connector with 5 people left behind him, who can all squeeze. If he is competent, then these hands are not even in his range, and even in that worst case scenario you still have 34% equity.

The vast majority of his range is draws, and you are ahead of draws. So why not just get it in and make him pay? If he folds, thats totally fine, because then you deny a big chunk of equity and take down an already decent sized pot uncontested. He can also have a worse set, which he is never going to fold on the flop, but you might not get his stack on later streets on a runout like this.

At the end of the day you got your chips in with 75% equity, and how can that ever be bad? Its one of those hands, where if you had won it, its very unlikely, it would have ended up in a forum. But decisions in poker are not made based on knowing, what the runout is going to be. I know, this has been said a million times already, but people still keep on posting hands, where they got it in good and got drawn out on.

 

[fundiver199]

Or to answer the questions more directly:

When opp min re-raised on such a wet board would it be worth calling and seeing if a heart/4/8 roll off on turn?

If a heart/4/8 rolls off, its bad for you, because you are put in a tough spot out of position. You might end up getting bluffed off the best hand, or you might have to pay a turn bet, when you are behind and drawing. So no. Its not better to slowplay on a dynamic board, when you are out of position and very likely to have the best hand.

Was going all-in this deep for 50bb bad from an ICM perspective?

If this was a final table then yes. In that case you should do a lot to pot control against the big stacks and wait for the short stacks to either bust or dubble, so you level up some places before risking all your chips. But this was not final table play, and presumably not the bubble either. And then there is absolutely nothing wrong with getting it in for 50BB, even as an above average stack.

Yes it sucks, that you busted, but surviving in tournaments is not the goal, unless you are playing purely for run, and in that case their is no point in asking question in a poker forum. So presumably you are playing for profit, at least to some extend. And then your goal should always to be maximize long term EV.

Which you did in this hand by getting it in with 75% equity. You are playing an 11$ MTT, so most of your opponent are not morons, and they are not going to give you bigger edges than this. Its as good, as it gets, and to win a tournament you simply need to get lucky / hold in spots like this.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I agree with guys. I think that you played this hand correctly. In cheaper tournament opponent can show some suited connectors cards and in cheaper tournament could play agressively two suited connector over cards. Our hands on the flop is too strong and I think that we can't escape, because we still have some outs to catch the full house. In this situation you had simply unlucky. I agree with fundiver that I don't see too many suited connector hands from this position, because somebody can 3bets you and your opponent, if opponent play here suited connector it is a little risky move and in longrun time he can lose some chips. GL

 

[mktpppr]

Hello,

I agree with fundiver199 and others: I'm never doing anything else but cbet/jam in this spot.

I'm nitpicking below:

P: I would size up slightly to 2.5x, even 2.25x.
F: cbet to 16 500, cbet/jamming all day long.

 

[Jon Poker]

Not to seem like I'm cheapening out a response here but personally I think you did everything fine in this hand.

With this flop villan should be raisimg overpairs to the board for value and protection so its not uncommon for them to have 88s+ here - if they are willing to stack off on this board while we have top set, we need to get our money in while they are willing. Sure 89 is already there, but we are to strong to fold and don't want to risk a scare card coming on the turn which could not only freeze us up - but our villan as well. If they had TT or JJ in this spot then the turn card is not good for either of us and we no longer get value from our hand so if they are willing to go with it on this flop, we should be happy to get it all in here.

The result is just a cooler, nothing we can do here and there is nothing to be learned about the end result. We got our money in super good, it just simply did not work out for us this time. Such is poker. Nice hand.

 

[7CardKillR]

cooler situation for sure. since this board is both wet and dynamic I dont mind the spazz 3b jam so much a little frisky but OK!. you got paid by a weaker hand but the deck fell against you. You may have trouble in the future getting calls with this line but is worked fine here. These run outs are to be frequently expected in our game