$11 NLHE MTT: Any reason to play this differently?

[ManicLombax]

Edit: sorry, should have titled this more informatively.
AKs vs raise 25BB deep

About 1000 players left in the "mini main event" on merge. Is shipping it pretty standard here? Any arguments for flatting or small 3-betting?

Merge - $10+$1| NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: 14,212.00
Hero (BB): 34,420.00
UTG: 11,613.00
UTG+1: 9,224.00
MP: 71,023.00
MP+1: 12,839.00
LP: 16,890.00
CO: 37,103.00
BTN: 19,364.00

SB posts ante 50.00, Hero posts ante 50.00, UTG posts ante 50.00, UTG+1 posts ante 50.00, MP posts ante 50.00, MP+1 posts ante 50.00, LP posts ante 50.00, CO posts ante 50.00, BTN posts ante 50.00, SB posts SB 250.00, Hero posts BB 500.00

Pre Flop: (1200.00) Hero has K:diamond: A:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 1,120.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 34,370.00 and is all-in ...

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

Well played. Flatting is bad, effective stacks are awkward for OOP flop play if you whiff. You can 3-bet small if you feel he'll shove wide, but lacking a good read I prefer the shove right here.

 

[Jillychemung]

I probably 3-bet, 3500, here to try and induce a shove.

 

[Karkus77]

i like the shove personally

 

[ManicLombax]

Thanks everyone.

My father-in-law was watching as I played this, and I was trying to explain to him why I want to get it in here with AKs. I wasn't doing a very good job. Anyone want to have a go at explaining why we want to get all the money in here? Is it because we think there's a chance he'll call with something we dominate? Are we happy if he turns over a pair and we're flipping?

 

[jbbb]

Get pokerstove and run AKs against his likely calling range (probably 88+, AQs+ AKo+) and see what equity you have (about 46%).

Depending on villains stats you can predict what range he is opening in MP+1 (since stats aren't given, I can't give a range). But we can probably predict he folds about 50% of the time and calls 50% of the time.

So basically we're risking 13,000 (effective stack) to win ~2,500 chips 50% of the time or ~14,000 chips 25% of the time, and we loose 13,000 chips 25% of the time.

The numbers vary depending on blinds, stack sizes and ranges.

Some other people (baudib, c9) will give you an equation if you wish

 

[pat3392]

Jam when OOP, 3bet small when IP, wp

 

[BlueNowhere]

Get pokerstove and run AKs against his likely calling range (probably 88+, AQs+ AKo+) and see what equity you have (about 46%).

Depending on villains stats you can predict what range he is opening in MP+1 (since stats aren't given, I can't give a range). But we can probably predict he folds about 50% of the time and calls 50% of the time.

So basically we're risking 13,000 (effective stack) to win ~2,500 chips 50% of the time or ~14,000 chips 25% of the time, and we loose 13,000 chips 25% of the time.

The numbers vary depending on blinds, stack sizes and ranges.

Some other people (baudib, c9) will give you an equation if you wish

equation would be (fold*chips gained)+(call*equity when called*chips won)-(call*(1-equity)*chips risked). Assuming all your numbers are correct (cant check on my phone) shoving is +960 chips

 

[baudib1]

Make it $3,500 and shove the flop.

 

[baudib1]

In case you were wondering the way to explain your move (which is perfectly fine/standard) is that AK plays better when it sees all 5 cards and any minimal fold equity makes it an +EV move.

The reason I like the go-and-go (3-bet smaller and shove all flops) is that you give him 2 chances to fold and he can sometimes fold a better hand when we don't hit (i.e. hard to call pot-sized bet with 99 on QJ2).